ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[TheStormExpert]

just wait until the data come back from recon and the center is location ESE of barbados.. the model consensus goes bye bye later.

I think tomorrow nights NOAA G-IV plane will be the one that gets the data that should help the models. Hopefully that’s in by 00z Thursday.

[ScottNAtlanta]

just wait until the data come back from recon and the center is location ESE of barbados.. the model consensus goes bye bye later.

I still dont see how this gets as far north as is being forecast. It's screamin' to the west right now.

[Ivanhater]

I see the 12z Euro gets this into the north central gulfcoast

[Blown Away]

12z Navgem...

[sma10]

just wait until the data come back from recon and the center is location ESE of barbados.. the model consensus goes bye bye later.

Aric, what do you think the net result of track forecast will be when they place center ESE of barbados?

[stormlover2013]

The big question mark is how strong will the trough be!! Models sometimes over do the troughs come July-sept

[DestinHurricane]

I'm starting to think its track is going to split the spine of the GAs. If it shifts south anymore the track will be right on the GAs.

[Aric Dunn]

just wait until the data come back from recon and the center is location ESE of barbados.. the model consensus goes bye bye later.

Aric, what do you think the net result of track forecast will be when they place center ESE of barbados?

Hard to say. that lobe to the nE will cause some tugging.. but ridging to the NOrth is quite strong at the moment.

it is still possible to go south of Hispaniola.

[Hurricaneman]

If it is indeed ESE of Barbados the models will shift considerably south and an analog tropical system could be at the least Bonnie 2004 and at worst Charley 2004 in terms of track those systems are also good analogs so we’ll see what happens

[DestinHurricane]

If it is indeed ESE of Barbados the models will shift considerably south and an analog tropical system could be at the least Bonnie 2004 and at worst Charley 2004 in terms of track those systems are also good analogs so we’ll see what happens

A more west solution would be Dennis 2005. Surprised this hasn't been mentioned as it was in July as well.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles just released. They are clustered right over South Florida or vicinity of with pressures from 986MB to 1009MB. Most take 92l right over Hispaniola. Quite a few make it into the GOM but stay weak.

[Cpv17]

Interesting to note that the 12z Euro takes this as far west as the central Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

two of the EPS develop the east lobe and move them WSW into the NE carrib lol

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like we have 2 camps in the models. The stronger models are more to the east (Ukmet, Hwrf, Hmon) and the weaker solutions are more to the west (Euro, Gfs and Canadian). Which one is correct is the big question.




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[Cpv17]

Looks like we have 2 camps in the models. The stronger models are more to the east (Ukmet, Hwrf, Hmon) and the weaker solutions are more to the west (Euro, Gfs and Canadian). Which one is correct is the big question.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/c2bfb72c6a0d5c3a8e87e82ebf1b7144.gif


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They will shift even further sw imo.

[SoupBone]

I keep going back to the Para, and while I acknowledge that I fully understand that it's in testing mode, it's going to bust big time if it doesn't verify.

[SFLcane]

18z NAM for what is worth splits in between PR and DR which could mean a stronger storm.

[caneseddy]

18z NAM (I know I know) has a TD/weak TS approaching South Florida. Briefly intensifies to a solid TS north of Hispaniola but then weakens it back over the Bahamas.

[AutoPenalti]

Classic. NAM no longer develops this into a hurricane after the run prior to this showed it shoving the east cost.

[caneseddy]

Don't know if any one mentioned but the 12z HWRF-Para (which is replacing the HWRF) has a 989mb storm landfalling on the Miami-Dade/Broward line

If already mentioned, my apologies