ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Getting better organized by the hr as it approaches the islands.

[Sciencerocks]

Another 12 hours before a clear LLC developed at the surface within my opinion. Slow development then after as it enters the caribbean and makes a run as a tropical storm at Puerto rico.

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288184780798992385

[tiger_deF]

Irma, as an abnormally large hurricane in the same area, still had a lower area of maximum TS winds as PTC 9. When was the last time a storm this large was in the same general area?

[AutoPenalti]

Pretty much what the Euro had. It's a matter of how fast it consolidates before the Caribbean.

[GCANE]

I think it'll close off at the surface once it interacts with one of the islands due to enhanced convergence.

[AutoPenalti]

One would think that as soon as it aligns, it would slow down considerably?

[texsn95]

So why would this one develop while Gonzalo fizzled? Its size? Change in conditions from a week ago?

[SouthFLTropics]

Irma, as an abnormally large hurricane in the same area, still had a lower area of maximum TS winds as PTC 9. When was the last time a storm this large was in the same general area?

The only two that come to my mind is possibly Gilbert in 1988 and Hugo in 1989.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288184780798992385

I believe that's the same thing that happened with pre-Hermine in 2016, albeit delayed as it was already interacting with land at this stage in it's development.

[GCANE]

Turned north.
Looks like they are going back where IR Satellites last had it.
14N 55.3W

https://i.imgur.com/IkhCXvt.png

https://i.imgur.com/kGRqZPF.gif

This wind field appears as surface? Is this truly at 850mb?

It's just an analysis of the windfield coverage, with the center at the NHC position and the wind barbs always closed. Not really useful in a system like this.

Not True

Here's a WPAC invest showing open on the SW side.

[hipshot]

They turned east.
I hope they have enough gas.
Taking forever to map the wind field.

That brings up a good question. Have the Hurricane Hunters ever had to do in flight refueling before? Maybe they need to dispatch a KC-135 out there.

I don't think the P3 can do inflight refueling, at least the one I flew in, the P3B couldn't. When we were on long missions (about 16 hrs.) we flew with 2
engines shut down to conserve fuel. I don't know about the C-130.

[SouthFLTropics]

They turned east.
I hope they have enough gas.
Taking forever to map the wind field.

That brings up a good question. Have the Hurricane Hunters ever had to do in flight refueling before? Maybe they need to dispatch a KC-135 out there.

I don't think the P3 can do inflight refueling, at least the one I flew in, the P3B couldn't. When we were on long missions (about 16 hrs.) we flew with 2
engines shut down to conserve fuel. I don't know about the C-130.

Normal C-130's can definitely refuel in flight. I'm not so sure about the version that the Hurricane Hunters use. It may be a modified C-130. I would guess it would still have the same capabilities as your standard C-130.

[Ubuntwo]

This wind field appears as surface? Is this truly at 850mb?

It's just an analysis of the windfield coverage, with the center at the NHC position and the wind barbs always closed. Not really useful in a system like this.

Not True

Here's a WPAC invest showing open on the SW side.

https://i.imgur.com/sz8SVz7.gif

Get your point, although little weight should be placed on an experimental windfield analysis for a sprawling system with multiple areas of vorticity or elongation such as this one.

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/Ne1MuU4.gif
https://i.imgur.com/8ijzAKj.jpg

I think the LLC is the red circle. The low level circulation is huge. Wow.

Looks like it to me too but I'm no trained meteorologist. If the true LLC is between the "blobs" and it consolidates, this will be one hell
of a storm!!

[caneseddy]

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast
of the Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti

The NHC intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous advisory, but an usually high degree of
uncertainty regarding the future track and intensity of the system
remains

Still have it peaking at 60 mph and landfalling in South Florida.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

I’ve been hearing that the center may actually end up being closer to Barbados than is currently being stated

[SFLcane]

west wind?

 https://twitter.com/TheWeatherMastr/status/1288215468864569344

[Blown Away]

14.4/55.9, that's the LLC and convection popping on top.

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288184780798992385

What does this mean? That the SW "blob" as everyone is calling it, will flip to being the NE "blob" as it rotates?