ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneFrances04]

Local met just said that if the storm goes to So Fl, it isn’t likely to be a hurricane at that time. Is there enough info now to draw that conclusion?

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288223652618670082

It's even worse when the TV met shows the spaghetti models during 90 second segment. You can only explain so much in the short period of time, and too many people will see the lines and draw their own conclusions.

[chaser1]

Why'd the plane fly completely around where the LLC is more than likely at rather than confirming it's closed?

Pilot probably dropped his cell phone while texting, and the plane likely banked off course while he was trying to wrestle his phone loose from in between the seats. I hate when that happens

[Freeport-tx3738]

Hey I need yalls expert weather advice. You think I would be able to dodge the next storm cause I am gonna fly to ft Lauderdale on Saturday evening.

Think I will make it there before it gets too bad?

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288230238007308288

[CFLHurricane]

Hey. I need your expert weather advice. You think I would be able to dodge the next storm cause I am gonna fly to ft Lauderdale on Saturday evening.

We won’t know until Thursday, but right now it’s looking pretty dicey.

[Vdogg]

Looking like two separate features.
http://tropicwatch.info/ptc9072820201430.gif

Its a toss up, they both survive

Looks like they’re merging to me.

[SouthFLTropics]

Local met just said that if the storm goes to So Fl, it isn’t likely to be a hurricane at that time. Is there enough info now to draw that conclusion?

Hanna is on the white courtesy phone and would like to speak with that Met.

I'm not sure I'm in favor of local meteorologists (I'm assuming this was a TV met) sending messages that directly contradict the NHC. NHC isn't forecasting a Hurricane at this time. If the ghost of Hanna is to call anyone, it's the NHC, not the local TV met.

If NHC is not currently forecasting a Hurricane for Florida, due to the unknowns regarding the storm's potential future organization, land interaction, and shear, I think the TV met was correct to maintain that general messaging. For the moment.

I can agree with that standpoint. The problem is that the general public will completely ignore the words "isn't likely" and will just assume that it won't be a significant threat. When things change and all of a sudden it is, they will come crying saying that the Met screwed up, he said it wasn't going to be a hurricane.

[SoupBone]

Hey Aric, are you looking at the new GFS run?

It's going to be a long season, lots of new gray hair forming.

[MississippiWx]

Vort max on the northern end of the wave is strengthening now as the wave axis rotates more north-south. This has been a fascinating system. The SW blob from earlier was mostly mid-level, as expected. If the northern area can keep rotating around, it will be the most favored area of development.

[nativefloridian]

Vort max on the northern end of the wave is strengthening now as the wave axis rotates more north-south. This has been a fascinating system. The SW blob from earlier was mostly mid-level, as expected. If the northern area can keep rotating around, it will be the most favored area of development.

I'm guessing that means the east side wins on the east vs west debate earlier today?

[Aric Dunn]

Hey Aric, are you looking at the new GFS run?

It's going to be a long season, lots of new gray hair foming.

Yeah, I wont take any of the model runs seriously for a couple days. pure entertainment.

[alienstorm]

I dont see any signs of a LLC and this is not going to develop anytime soon.

[Blinhart]

I dont see any signs of a LLC and this is not going to develop anytime soon.

Yeah, all I see right now is a Very Big Tropical Wave with a Very Broad MLC, going to take quite a bit to get a TC out of this in the next 36 hours if not longer, unless it starts to consolidate quickly.

[psyclone]

I dont see any signs of a LLC and this is not going to develop anytime soon.

PTC can = potential tropical psych out. Less dramatic options tend not to get the airing they deserve.

[SFLcane]

Moving 20+ mph going to be hard to develop a well defined llc. Let’s see what tonight brings

[curtadams]

Vort max on the northern end of the wave is strengthening now as the wave axis rotates more north-south. This has been a fascinating system. The SW blob from earlier was mostly mid-level, as expected. If the northern area can keep rotating around, it will be the most favored area of development.

I'm guessing that means the east side wins on the east vs west debate earlier today?

Neither one, really. Both have faded and been replaced by new outbursts nearby. The LLC is being the boss, as is most often the case.

[aspen]

Tomorrow will be a very important day for PTC-9, because that’s when the wave axis will likely becoming upright and potentially lead to a more symmetrical/even wave, according to Levi. That will influence where or not the center gets pulled north of the DR and is allowed to survive.

A broad system running over every single island will remain a broad, sloppy, and pathetic excuse for a TC. If it’s able to consolidate a center north of the islands, it could produce a protective “bubble” of anticyclonic winds to help fight against the shear it will inevitably face in the Bahamas. The Euro shows the worst scenario for PTC-9’s development (constant land interaction while the wave is trying to get itself together), while the HWRF shows the best scenario for development (center reforms and tightens north of PR/DR and strengthens enough to make that protective bubble). Which extreme turns out to be more correct will be determined by how fast the wave can orient itself into a better configuration, and if the center starts reforming north of the islands via new bursts of convection.

[SFLcane]

NHC expects PT9 to become a TS before reaching the islands. We shall see.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC expects PT9 to become a TS before reaching the islands. We shall see.

so like 4 hours lol

[SFLcane]

NHC expects PT9 to become a TS before reaching the islands. We shall see.

so like 4 hours lol

That’s looking highly unlikely at this point.