ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

[Aric Dunn]

NHC expects PT9 to become a TS before reaching the islands. We shall see.

so like 4 hours lol

That’s looking highly unlikely at this point.

well not too much longer after that it will be over the islands.

So either they will go off the next ASCAT or surface obs or saw enough of a circ with recon but were waiting more organized convection.

So they technically have 11pm or 2am or 5am at the latest to match up with their forecast.

when is the next recon.. I am assuming just before 5 am ?

[chaser1]

What does the surface pressure field look like?
If its shallow broad and elongated there are likely going to be multiple vorts.

Exactly what I'm thinking. Also why I don't buy this very broad low level wind field truly establishing a COC in the 12-18 hr. period that the dynamic models project. As I see it two things will need to happen. 1) Continued convection over or near the broad center of circulation so to better establish a convergent inflow and tighter column of rising air. 2) A lessening of perimeter convection associated with the robust eastern and western mid-level "blobs". These features presently continue to distort and elongate the overall broad low level inflow therefore retarding the process of having a focus vertical column to develop. Prior to yesterday, we hardly had any cenralized concentration of convection at all. I believe it'll take at least 24 hr.'s (probably 36-48) for this to occur. Until then, westward-ho! Regardless, I'm sure NHC will upgrade this to a T.S. tomm even if there isn't a legit COC yet.

[Evil Jeremy]

so like 4 hours lol

That’s looking highly unlikely at this point.

well not too much longer after that it will be over the islands.

I think next recon takes off at 7:45am

So either they will go off the next ASCAT or surface obs or saw enough of a circ with recon but were waiting more organized convection.

So they technically have 11pm or 2am or 5am at the latest to match up with their forecast.

when is the next recon.. I am assuming just before 5 am ?

I think recon takes off at 7:45am.... Cycloneye, correct me below if I’m wrong

[cycloneye]

so like 4 hours lol

That’s looking highly unlikely at this point.

well not too much longer after that it will be over the islands.

So either they will go off the next ASCAT or surface obs or saw enough of a circ with recon but were waiting more organized convection.

So they technically have 11pm or 2am or 5am at the latest to match up with their forecast.

when is the next recon.. I am assuming just before 5 am ?

Next flight departs at 11:45 PM.

[SFLcane]

Look at the lighting..I think we may have a developing well defined circulation.

[sphelps8681]

So how far west if we know will this make it to the gulf or will it be a curve eastward?

[chaser1]

NHC expects PT9 to become a TS before reaching the islands. We shall see.

so like 4 hours lol

Right?! I think not. (regardless whether it's tagged a T.S. of not)

[tiger_deF]

92L is somewhat disorganized but the conundrum of tropical forecasting is all systems look disorganized until they aren't

[Aric Dunn]

Look at the lighting..I think we may have a developing well defined circulation.

https://iili.io/dAvzml.gif

well the llc was already there earlier. just had the boundary that was attached to the lobe to the NE.

if we are seeing this type of convection wrapping around.. likely means the boundary has broken down and the low level flow/convergence around the llc has begun to increase in those lacking quads.

[chaser1]

Hey I need yalls expert weather advice. You think I would be able to dodge the next storm cause I am gonna fly to ft Lauderdale on Saturday evening.

Think I will make it there before it gets too bad?

As a passenger on a commercial flight? All things considered at this moment in time, I'd consider chancing it. 1) A lot of variables in play but present circumstances allow for a decent margin of error when discussing a 96 hr forecast. 2) Present forecast is for a weak T.S. to approach S. Florida. Could be weaker but could also be stronger. Commercial flights already have protocols for a wide range of weather conditions and would not risk landing if conditions were deemed unsafe.

If you are a pilot and we were talking about flying a small plane however, I would not plan that flight given the potential for hazardous flight conditions.

[SFLcane]

Whattt... moving at 25 mph at 8pm. No way this closes off I just don’t know.

[sgastorm]

Hard for recon to close off a center with that forward speed. Hard to find west winds often when a system is moving that fast.

Whattt... moving at 25 mph at 8pm. No way this closes off I just don’t know.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hard for recon to close off a center with that forward speed. Hard to find west winds often when a system is moving that fast.

Whattt... moving at 25 mph at 8pm. No way this closes off I just don’t know.

Not often you can say a storm/wave/whatever is being it's own worst enemy.

[Blown Away]

Whattt... moving at 25 mph at 8pm. No way this closes off I just don’t know.

Plus they adjusted the position a little S which makes land interaction more possible.

[AnnularCane]

Is this expected to slow down at any point?

[aspen]

That southward center fix for the 8pm intermediate advisory is going to throw every previous model solution into a paper shredder. Who knows what’s even going to come out of this now? Will it even get far enough north to bring impacts to the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas?

[Kazmit]

It's always funny when this happens.

[Blown Away]

That southward center fix for the 8pm intermediate advisory is going to throw every previous model solution into a paper shredder. Who knows what’s even going to come out of this now? Will it even get far enough north to bring impacts to the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas?

Yep, Hispaniola is waiting to consume PTC#9... Euro may be right once again...

[JaxGator]

Well, despite its forward speed, PTC 9 atm has started a WNW movement.
Per NHC:
8:00 PM AST Tue Jul 28
Location: 14.2°N 58.7°W
Moving: WNW at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph