ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

Well, despite its forward speed, PTC 9 atm has started a WNW movement.
Per NHC:
8:00 PM AST Tue Jul 28
Location: 14.2°N 58.7°W
Moving: WNW at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

I think the 25mph motion is because of the center reformation. It’s not moving that fast.

[aspen]

That southward center fix for the 8pm intermediate advisory is going to throw every previous model solution into a paper shredder. Who knows what’s even going to come out of this now? Will it even get far enough north to bring impacts to the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas?

Yep, Hispaniola is waiting to consume PTC#9... Euro may be right once again...

If PTC-9 doesn’t start gaining latitude fast, it’s going to run into Cuba or Jamaica at this rate.

[Visioen]

Islands about to be soaked.

[chaser1]

Is this expected to slow down at any point?

Last time I looked (about 18 hr.'s ago?), East/Central Caribbean forecast 500 mb flow appeared significantly more relaxed at about 10 knots.

[Blown Away]

Well, despite its forward speed, PTC 9 atm has started a WNW movement.
Per NHC:
8:00 PM AST Tue Jul 28
Location: 14.2°N 58.7°W
Moving: WNW at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Per 5pm, PTC9 was to reach 58.8 at 06z, it’s there now. Better start climbing or Hispaniola is its future. Makes the angle to miss the big island a little harder IMO.

[chaser1]

That southward center fix for the 8pm intermediate advisory is going to throw every previous model solution into a paper shredder. Who knows what’s even going to come out of this now? Will it even get far enough north to bring impacts to the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas?

Yep, Hispaniola is waiting to consume PTC#9... Euro may be right once again...

If PTC-9 doesn’t start gaining latitude fast, it’s going to run into Cuba or Jamaica at this rate.

That could ultimately be a bad play for Florida.

[Kazmit]

That southward center fix for the 8pm intermediate advisory is going to throw every previous model solution into a paper shredder. Who knows what’s even going to come out of this now? Will it even get far enough north to bring impacts to the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas?

Yep, Hispaniola is waiting to consume PTC#9... Euro may be right once again...

If PTC-9 doesn’t start gaining latitude fast, it’s going to run into Cuba or Jamaica at this rate.

How about the Guajira Peninsula in Venezuela?

[HurricaneFrances04]

There is no closed circulation, so I'm not sure you can say it's tracking more south than anticipated.Of course, if one doesn't form it's probably westward ho.

[Aric Dunn]

They likely shifted the center position south do to the winds turning out of the WNW to NW in barbados.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think what we need to really be looking for to happen is two things:

1.) A slowdown as it approaches the Eastern Caribbean
2.) A relocation and/or consolidation of the center on the North side of PR and Hispaniola

[TheStormExpert]

Why is it moving so fast? Weren’t trade winds supposed to be slow this season?

At this point I wouldn’t loose sleep over this mess as it’ll likely never amount to anything significant. Conditions just aren’t favorable out there even with a passing Kelvin Wave.

[aspen]

I’d love to see the looks on everyones’ faces if this becomes a Caribbean Crusier and never makes it to or above the Greater Antilles. Potentially unlikely, but PTC-9 really does not want to go north, it seems.

[Aric Dunn]

They likely shifted the center position south do to the winds turning out of the WNW to NW in barbados.

[tiger_deF]

Why is it moving so fast? Weren’t trade winds supposed to be slow this season?

At this point I wouldn’t loose sleep over this mess as it’ll likely never amount to anything significant. Conditions just aren’t favorable out there even with a passing Kelvin Wave.

It's late July and just a few days ago we had a hurricane make landfall on the CONUS. Just because one absolute unit of a wave is struggling to pull it together doesn't mean conditions are suddenly suboptimal

[AxaltaRacing24]

Why is it moving so fast? Weren’t trade winds supposed to be slow this season?

At this point I wouldn’t loose sleep over this mess as it’ll likely never amount to anything significant. Conditions just aren’t favorable out there even with a passing Kelvin Wave.

It's late July and just a few days ago we had a hurricane make landfall on the CONUS. Just because one absolute unit of a wave is struggling to pull it together doesn't mean conditions are suddenly suboptimal

this storm shouldn't really be here right now in the first place. the waves in 2017 during this time of year failed to develop in this location.

how this event can be spun into an outlook for an unfavorable season is beyond me.

[Evil Jeremy]

I’d love to see the looks on everyones’ faces if this becomes a Caribbean Crusier and never makes it to or above the Greater Antilles. Potentially unlikely, but PTC-9 really does not want to go north, it seems.

Emily ‘05:

Advisory 1: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/gr ... 0505W5.GIF

5 days later: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/gr ... 0505W5.GIF

[aspen]

They likely shifted the center position south do to the winds turning out of the WNW to NW in barbados.

https://i.ibb.co/pvRfhjk/Capture.png

Convection is blowing up like crazy there. The longer it persists, the quicker the center will be able to close off down there. The overall circulation is still broad and elongated but this convection should help pinch off the SW end.

[Visioen]

Why is it moving so fast? Weren’t trade winds supposed to be slow this season?

At this point I wouldn’t loose sleep over this mess as it’ll likely never amount to anything significant. Conditions just aren’t favorable out there even with a passing Kelvin Wave.

It's late July and just a few days ago we had a hurricane make landfall on the CONUS. Just because one absolute unit of a wave is struggling to pull it together doesn't mean conditions are suddenly suboptimal

this storm shouldn't really be here right now in the first place. the waves in 2017 during this time of year failed to develop in this location.

how this event can be spun into an outlook for an unfavorable season is beyond me.

How TheStormExpert's post can be spun into an outlook for an unfavorable season is also beyond me

[CM2]

I believe as we type, 9 is developing a core. Through the vapor and microwave we can see how the core is taking shape a little further south than expected but it is there. Of course this is my opinion from looking at these images but I'm not crazy right, the models had this happening.

Microwave also shows a little ring in the works around the same area.

Unironically the western blob is winning out. Team east blob devastated

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's late July and just a few days ago we had a hurricane make landfall on the CONUS. Just because one absolute unit of a wave is struggling to pull it together doesn't mean conditions are suddenly suboptimal

this storm shouldn't really be here right now in the first place. the waves in 2017 during this time of year failed to develop in this location.

how this event can be spun into an outlook for an unfavorable season is beyond me.

How TheStormExpert's post can be spun into an outlook for an unfavorable season is also beyond me

its not just today's post that i was talking about in particular lol. and its not just him either.

there's been 2013 comparisons over the past 2 days because of the dry air.