ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

SLIDER mesoscale https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1114.8580322265625&y=1238.865478515625

The real deal, or another Caribbean pretender?

[Shell Mound]

Personally, I fully expect this to “bomb out” as soon as it slows down sufficiently and is then able to become fully aligned/stacked with height. The environment isn’t going to be much drier than it currently is, the circulation is strong enough to fend off the TUTT, and in this case its large size, when coupled with frictional convergence near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola, could actually help it “spin up” and consolidate near or just north of the Greater Antilles, near the northern edge of the wave axis, as the southern lobe makes a sudden reformation or shift northward over time. (The latest HWRF run explicitly shows this evolution.) Land interaction will arguably aid rather than hinder its development. As long as strong convection keeps going, this system should be able to intensify as it consolidates just north of the major islands and then heads west-northwestward into the Bahamas.

Impressive gravity-waves and hot towers on the very first visible imagery this morning:

[3090]

Zoomed out satellite IR presentation starting to look pretty classic, and there is a noticeable North component to the central convection. It's still possible that a large portion of the storm misses the shredder, none the worse for wear.

How can anyone, looking only at a IR satellite view, say there is any particular change in movement? I guess I am missing something. I’ll rely on the NHC and the data they provide. I do not think they will be far off from their forecast track (up along the CONUS east coast), EVEN THOUGH at this time, there is no real TS center established, valid enough for the models.

[jlauderdal]

Zoomed out satellite IR presentation starting to look pretty classic, and there is a noticeable North component to the central convection. It's still possible that a large portion of the storm misses the shredder, none the worse for wear.

How can anyone, looking only at a IR satellite view, say there is any particular change in movement? I guess I am missing something. I’ll rely on the NHC and the data they provide. I do not think they will be far off from their forecast track (up along the CONUS east coast), EVEN THOUGH, there is no real TS center established, valid for enough for the models.

IR returns have fooled many people over the years, follow recon and visible until we have a 'core" for movement

[3090]

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1288362604440756224

The lower half of that cone is off by quite a bit to begin with. The system is more centered in the eastern Caribbean sea, then that cone represents. And that sharp hook appears questionable, based on the broad center of the system.

[toad strangler]

Finally getting that look

[Aric Dunn]

I think the models were just a little off lol

[3090]

Zoomed out satellite IR presentation starting to look pretty classic, and there is a noticeable North component to the central convection. It's still possible that a large portion of the storm misses the shredder, none the worse for wear.

How can anyone, looking only at a IR satellite view, say there is any particular change in movement? I guess I am missing something. I’ll rely on the NHC and the data they provide. I do not think they will be far off from their forecast track (up along the CONUS east coast), EVEN THOUGH, there is no real TS center established, valid for enough for the models.

IR returns have fooled many people over the years, follow recon and visible until we have a 'core" for movement

Exactly my point, reiterated!

[Do_For_Love]

Looks the best it has thus far IMO. Maybe finally consolidating under the heavy convection?

[3090]

I think the models were just a little off lol

Been following close attention to your posts Aric. I would say the models will be adjusted once the true center is clearly identified by the hurricane hunters and the first real official cone will then be available, as typical.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the models were just a little off lol

Been following close attention to your posts Aric. I would say the models will be adjusted once the true center is clearly identified by the hurricane hunters and the first real official cone will then be available, as typical.

assuming they fly through the center this flight... I guess they have been doing "survey" missions. whatever that is..

[Blown Away]

Convection definitely increasing and my observation is a broad LLC @15.8/62.2

[Vdogg]

How can anyone, looking only at a IR satellite view, say there is any particular change in movement? I guess I am missing something. I’ll rely on the NHC and the data they provide. I do not think they will be far off from their forecast track (up along the CONUS east coast), EVEN THOUGH, there is no real TS center established, valid for enough for the models.

IR returns have fooled many people over the years, follow recon and visible until we have a 'core" for movement

Exactly my point, reiterated!

Well, if you rely on the NHC, then you would have seen their forecast discussion that states it's moving WNW at 295/20. So apparently they see a north component as well...

[SFLcane]

I think the models were just a little off lol

Thoughts on when this gets named? Noticed HWRF, HMON, ICON, HWRF-para all intensify PTD9 pretty quickly as it leaves DR or Cuba toward SFL.

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/oOpq3xy.gif

Convection definitely increasing and my observation is a broad LLC @15.8/62.2

Radar data from Guadeloupe suggest any LLC is much farther south than your estimate—below 15°N, in fact. Currently the broad rotation observed is at the mid-levels, while a sharp surface trough is present, without any clear LLC as of now, despite the very strong convection present. The presence of convection does indicate that low-level convergence is present, but the rapid forward movement is still preventing anything from “closing off.” Bottom line: as soon as this system slows down, watch out.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the models were just a little off lol

Thoughts on when this gets named? Noticed HWRF, HMON, ICON, HWRF-para all intensify PTD9 pretty quickly as it leaves DR or Cuba toward SFL.

Well, most of the models insist on a heavily north lopsided convective mass that reforms a center north of the islands.. we dont have that...

so those solutions north of Hispaniola look less and less likely at this point.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/oOpq3xy.gif

Convection definitely increasing and my observation is a broad LLC @15.8/62.2

Radar data from Guadeloupe suggest any LLC is much farther south than your estimate—below 15°N, in fact. Currently the broad rotation observed is at the mid-levels, while a sharp surface trough is present, without any clear LLC as of now, despite the very strong convection present. The presence of convection does indicate that low-level convergence is present, but the rapid forward movement is still preventing anything from “closing off.” Bottom line: as soon as this system slows down, watch out.

Yeah, I see that, but I've learned not to get hooked on the eddy's that spin off, I'm following the intense showers and see general low low inflow in that area. I'm probably wrong.

[northjaxpro]

Just getting out to go to the office, but looking at satellite imagery, PTC-9 is looking about as good as it has with improving structure and to me, it looks as if the center maybe forming on the southwestern edge of the large convective mass.

We will.know more later this morning, but I think.today we will finally see the funny looking and hard to say "I" name designated to this system.

So many factors and questions concerning the fate with this system. It will lead to many headaches for yours truly and for the rest of us . It is going to be a long nect several days to come for sure.

I will check in here when I can . Have a great day everyone!

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/oOpq3xy.gif

Convection definitely increasing and my observation is a broad LLC @15.8/62.2

Radar data from Guadeloupe suggest any LLC is much farther south than your estimate—below 15°N, in fact. Currently the broad rotation observed is at the mid-levels, while a sharp surface trough is present, without any clear LLC as of now, despite the very strong convection present. The presence of convection does indicate that low-level convergence is present, but the rapid forward movement is still preventing anything from “closing off.” Bottom line: as soon as this system slows down, watch out.

Those Coordinates are not that far off.. it is definitely somewhere SW of Guadalupe and moving west. per radar. looks fairly well defined and circular. I personally had 15.6 N

[eastcoastFL]

Looking a lot more consolidated on visible this morning... unless I’m mistaken