ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

It’s looking decently good on visible satellite imagery. New convection continues to fire in the dominant lobe, some early banding and outflow features are present, and while the wave circulation is still elongated, it is moving to become S—>N oriented instead of SW—>NE. Odds are we’ll have TS Isaias no later than very early tomorrow morning. As for track and intensity...well, I’m just going to wait until there’s a center to pin down.

With the way it’s looking I’d be shocked if we didn’t have Isaias by tomorrow morning at the latest. Not to mention winds are up to 40kts. now.

[wxman57]

I see 30 kts in recon reports. The 40kts was flagged as suspect. Winds look a bit lower than yesterday.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well GCANE they are headed in the opposite direction of that ship report...oh well

[ScottNAtlanta]

No it wouldn't, you must be mistaking Puerto Rico with the Dominican Republic. If it made a right turn it would even miss PR. I has plenty of yardage to make a gradual turn and slam DR.

No, because I think the center is going to form SW of where everyone seems to be looking. Maybe not a "hard right", but a substantial change in direction, that up until now...has not been happening.

I guess we have to just disagree. All kinds of room to hit DR.

We'll come back to these comments at 2pm and see where we are. If it keeps moving like it has been, it will be more obvious then.

[HurricaneEnzo]

IDK to me looking at the visible loop it seems pretty much due W. That's strictly visual though I'm not very good at deciphering the recon data.

[chris_fit]

Pressures are so high according to recon.

[Evil Jeremy]

This PTC has become a Rorschach test.

[Aric Dunn]

Well GCANE they are headed in the opposite direction of that ship report...oh well

the last 3 missions they have seemingly been doing the opposite of the obvious...

with that said.. the deep convection with the curved bands flowing in could very well tighten up the LLC there..

[GCANE]

Well GCANE they are headed in the opposite direction of that ship report...oh well

Looks like they are going back to the target.
Starting to look more and more like an open wave.
They are flying at 1500'
Maybe they'll drop lower.

[aspen]

Just going to point out all the pockets of extremely high OHC in the Caribbean. If it follows the NHC track, it’ll go through the one off the southern PR coast. If it continues to go W/WNW, it could instead pass through the one south of Hispaniola and Cuba.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The main problem I see with this forming a center is the inflow on the east side is headed due north all the way to the convection at the north end and on the west side its going down to the south end...a very oblong rotation

[toad strangler]

No, because I think the center is going to form SW of where everyone seems to be looking. Maybe not a "hard right", but a substantial change in direction, that up until now...has not been happening.

I guess we have to just disagree. All kinds of room to hit DR.

We'll come back to these comments at 2pm and see where we are. If it keeps moving like it has been, it will be more obvious then.

Sounds great. Want to do profile pic wager?

[GCANE]

In heavy convection.
40 mm/hr rain rate.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just going to point out all the pockets of extremely high OHC in the Caribbean. If it follows the NHC track, it’ll go through the one off the southern PR coast. If it continues to go W/WNW, it could instead pass through the one south of Hispaniola and Cuba.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al09/ohcnfcst/2020al09_ohcnfcst_202007290600.gif

Also to add to that...its been a while since those have been tapped. A couple of years at least.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I guess we have to just disagree. All kinds of room to hit DR.

We'll come back to these comments at 2pm and see where we are. If it keeps moving like it has been, it will be more obvious then.

Sounds great. Want to do profile pic wager?

lol...what is a profile pic wager?

[toad strangler]

We'll come back to these comments at 2pm and see where we are. If it keeps moving like it has been, it will be more obvious then.

Sounds great. Want to do profile pic wager?

lol...what is a profile pic wager?

If it misses Hispaniola I will change my profile pic for ONE WEEK to a hot dog with mustard on it. (Weenie) If it hits you do same.

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling that a Charley like track is becoming possible if they find the lowest pressures in the convection which is a good distance SW of where the hurricane center has it. This system is such a pain to forecast

[Aric Dunn]

on the S/SW Side..

132700 1524N 06335W 9594 00431 0086 +200 +200 197030 031 039 020 00
132730 1525N 06334W 9595 00429 0086 +202 +202 196030 032 047 016 00
132800 1527N 06333W 9593 00434 0088 +203 +203 193030 032 040 014 00
132830 1528N 06331W 9594 00432 0088 +200 +200 191028 028 035 027 00
132900 1529N 06330W 9593 00432 0088 +202 +202 190028 029 035 028 00
132930 1530N 06329W 9595 00425 0084 +203 +203 188026 027 058 041 00
133000 1532N 06328W 9589 00434 0083 +196 +195 184027 029 057 039 03

[GCANE]

In heavy convection.
40 mm/hr rain rate.

Big wind
55.9 knot 30-sec SFMR in the clear.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Sounds great. Want to do profile pic wager?

lol...what is a profile pic wager?

If it misses Hispaniola I will change my profile pic for ONE WEEK to a hot dog with mustard on it. (Weenie) If it hits you do same.

Your on! Of course, we have to have a center for it to miss...