ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Do we think that blowup around 16n 64w is where it's at?

By my eye, just looking at the two most recent satellite visible, there's some inflow under that mass.

Which mass, the one to the south or the one to the north?

[SFLcane]

What time is the next recon mission?

[Nimbus]

Latest convective burst looks far enough north that there will be land interaction with Hispaniola.
NHC has done well so far despite the uncertainty.

[BobHarlem]

Do we think that blowup around 16n 64w is where it's at?

By my eye, just looking at the two most recent satellite visible, there's some inflow under that mass.

Which mass, the one to the south or the one to the north?

Or is it the 18N 62W one that the GFS seems to be latching onto? 3 Areas along that wave axis is what I see on the satellite. Southwest (~15N6, 6W), central one (16n 64W, Recon one), and NE one (GFS favored west of Barbuda 18N 62W).

[psyclone]

the real tell on what the NHC thinks of this system is TS wind probs decreasing over florida as the "storm" reels in. That's a huge read between the lines indication of what they think about the system's future..which isn't much as of now. tough to disagree at this point..

[SFLcane]

From Levi..

St. Kitts (~17.5N) abruptly dropped from 1009 to 1007mb last hour as wave axis passed through. Whatever is happening farther south, the north end of a wave will always try to steal the focus, because curvature vorticity is maxed there. No closed circ yet but watching closely.

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/sta ... 15809?s=21

[Blown Away]

My track.

[rolldamntoad]

My thoughts exactly...

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288483748196036608

Is it possible they’re worried about bumping into Venezuelan airspace?

[Vdogg]

Is the eastern blob back? What is this thing? Is the storm splitting?

[Ian2401]

im so confused with whats happening right now in the storm, can someone explain to me what the hell is going on lol

[Vdogg]

https://i.imgur.com/VXvq8cc.jpg

My track.

Maybe the storm splits, goes around PR, and reconverges on the other side.

[TheProfessor]

I believe that both the northeastern convection and and southern convection(which still has a ton of lightning) are red herrings right now. The 850 mb vorticity continues to consolidate in the middle where that deep convection went up that is also filled with lightning. This is likely the area we need to watch.

[Evil Jeremy]

Do we think that blowup around 16n 64w is where it's at?

By my eye, just looking at the two most recent satellite visible, there's some inflow under that mass.

Which mass, the one to the south or the one to the north?

Here's the area I'm looking at for inflow:

[nativefloridian]

Is the eastern blob back? What is this thing? Is the storm splitting?

[msbee]

Princess Juliana International Airport
Sint Maarten, Netherlands Antilles

latitude: 18-03N, longitude: 063-07W, elevation: 13 ft

Current weather observation
The report was made 36 minutes ago, at 16:00 UTC
Wind 30 mph from the East with gusts up to 44 mph
Temperature 81°F
Humidity 89%
Pressure 1009 hPa
Visibility: 9842 ft Few clouds at a height of 800 ft
Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft, Towering cumulus.
Broken clouds at a height of 3500 ft
rain showers

[b0tzy29]

That blob that pops up at 16 or just north of it, is where i would be focusing my energy - in my unprofessional opinion.

[Lance]

Hey Lance, welcome! Yeah, anything could happen but I'll eat your hat if THAT plays out LOL (wait, do you have a hat?)

well there is the 12z gfs.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=-60

Long time lurker, first post. That looks to miss DR to the north? That would be interesting...

Have to wear a hat, I'm bald! LOL
Going to be a fun few days for all. Love this site....

[wxman57]

There is an increasing chance this never becomes Isaias. If it doesn't make it prior to reaching the DR, then it may never make it.

[typhoonty]

There is an increasing chance this never becomes Isaias. If it doesn't make it prior to reaching the DR, then it may never make it.

Agreed. Competing centers are completely parasitic to tropical cyclone development. I'd put development chances at perhaps 10-20%. And before anyone accuses me of just being a bear, I was very aggressive with Hanna. Just don't see it this time

[DestinHurricane]

There is an increasing chance this never becomes Isaias. If it doesn't make it prior to reaching the DR, then it may never make it.

Agreed. Competing centers are completely parasitic to tropical cyclone development. I'd put development chances at perhaps 10-20%. And before anyone accuses me of just being a bear, I was very aggressive with Hanna. Just don't see it this time

I agree as well. Just an unfavorable environment + Hispaniola. I would go further, I think it has a 5% chance of getting a name. Will be a nice weekend in Florida!