ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1481 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:53 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I am still not buying north of Hispaniola. The vorticity is concentrating on the southern end, and as time is passing it would have to make a more prominent turn in the NW direction to do that and I see no mechanism to force that. I believe the models have been initializing this too far north and thus are not correct.
There is a hot tower going off right over where I think the center is forming. There is also some low level flow bending toward it.


I am with you about this, which I have alluded to a few times already.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1482 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:56 pm

So we have Team West
NorthJaxPro
Aric
and Myself
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1483 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 2:56 pm

NDG wrote:If the system indeed takes the persistent track that the Euro has been forecasting run after run, north of Cuba, whoever thinks is going to have SW shear to deal with is lying to themselves. With the trough axis all the way west over the MS river valley it should have fairly good UL conditions.
Remember how bad they were with the intensity of Hanna 2-3 days before making landfall.


Great post!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1484 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:00 pm

NDG wrote:If the system indeed takes the persistent track that the Euro has been forecasting run after run, north of Cuba, whoever thinks is going to have SW shear to deal with is lying to themselves. With the trough axis all the way west over the MS river valley it should have fairly good UL conditions.
Remember how bad they were with the intensity of Hanna 2-3 days before making landfall.

Any idea or guess on where PTC-9 may end up or go with that trough?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1485 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:00 pm

Anti-cyclone is breaking down to the unsustained convection.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1486 Postby jconsor » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:01 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1487 Postby jconsor » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:02 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1488 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:03 pm

SFLcane wrote:
NDG wrote:If the system indeed takes the persistent track that the Euro has been forecasting run after run, north of Cuba, whoever thinks is going to have SW shear to deal with is lying to themselves. With the trough axis all the way west over the MS river valley it should have fairly good UL conditions.
Remember how bad they were with the intensity of Hanna 2-3 days before making landfall.


Great post!


EURO I feel has had the best handle on this system from the beginning since last weekend, mainly imo because it was able to detect the ridging pattern , which is corresponding to the forecasted + NAO to be in effect by August 1.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1489 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:03 pm

Image
This thing is huge, convection really building to the N of PR. Starting to see the possibility this system can move along the N coast of DR instead of through it.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1490 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:05 pm

Curious about the accuracy of this ship observation near #PTC9. If verified, would indicate that the system is probably very close to being a TC with a closed circulation. We'll see if we get some other obs.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 27817?s=21
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1491 Postby hurrtracker79 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:08 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1492 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:11 pm

LLC is down on the right edge of that southern curved band.. as the cirrus clouds fade it has become visible.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1493 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:13 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1494 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:16 pm

Follow the convection. Looks like formation near 15N......MGC
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1495 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:17 pm

SFLcane wrote:Curious about the accuracy of this ship observation near #PTC9. If verified, would indicate that the system is probably very close to being a TC with a closed circulation. We'll see if we get some other obs.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 27817?s=21

Levi posted a reply saying it wasn't correct because sat showed it couldn't be true (I'm paraphrasing of course)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1496 Postby Hammy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:18 pm

SFLcane wrote:Curious about the accuracy of this ship observation near #PTC9. If verified, would indicate that the system is probably very close to being a TC with a closed circulation. We'll see if we get some other obs.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 27817?s=21


Have they upgraded based on ship observations? I know they've done so with intensity but I can't remember if they have regarding open vs closed circulation.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1497 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:18 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:I am still not buying north of Hispaniola. The vorticity is concentrating on the southern end, and as time is passing it would have to make a more prominent turn in the NW direction to do that and I see no mechanism to force that. I believe the models have been initializing this too far north and thus are not correct.
There is a hot tower going off right over where I think the center is forming. There is also some low level flow bending toward it.


I am with you about this, which I have alluded to a few times already.


All you have to look at are the surface pressures which are lowest near the Virgin Islands, SW of it the pressures are higher.
Satellite is starting to hint that the northern end is very close to closing a circulation.

Image
Last edited by NDG on Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1498 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:19 pm

Note that the 12Z Euro initialized the "center" way too far east, by Guadeloupe Island. Same with those 51 ensemble members. That's about 200 miles too far east. I don't trust it for that reason, primarily. As for that ship ob, ships are notoriously bad at reporting winds. I've been plotting ships since the late 1970s, and you learn to take their obs with a grain of salt sometimes. Agree with Levi, it's suspect. One thing the models are in good agreement on is if this can track well east of Florida, then it may find a more hospitable environment. I don't think it will track east of Florida, however.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1499 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:19 pm

Hammy wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Curious about the accuracy of this ship observation near #PTC9. If verified, would indicate that the system is probably very close to being a TC with a closed circulation. We'll see if we get some other obs.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 27817?s=21


Have they upgraded based on ship observations? I know they've done so with intensity but I can't remember if they have regarding open vs closed circulation.

I know they have with buoy readings...dont know about ships
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1500 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:23 pm

Recent ASCAT has no dice.

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