ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1581 Postby CM2 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:07 pm

Well this should make you think.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1582 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:07 pm

rolltide wrote:Total non-pro opinion but I think this will just skirt the south coast of the D.R. and then cross the eastern side of Cuba.


Good line of thinking here.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1583 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:08 pm

The real story here only begins post-Hispaniola. Needs that land interaction to split up or kill off the entire southern portion then it can move on.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1584 Postby SapphireSea » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:10 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Things that make you go “hummm”



The towers on WV seem to show shearing and rapid movement if you look closely. The convection is waning fast, any vort is going to want to stay with the better convection to the SW.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1585 Postby BadLarry95 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:10 pm

When’s the next recon gonna fly?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1586 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:15 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:When’s the next recon gonna fly?

8pm
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1587 Postby Evenstar » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:16 pm

3090 wrote:Since this discussion began on NINE, there has been at least ONE message posted on every page, such as; IT IS ABOUT TO BE NAMED...CENTER IS STARTING TO GET BETTER DEFINED....I SEE THE CENTER NOW...I HAVE THE CENTER AT ?...IT IS ABOUT TO BLOW UP...and a lot of other similar type messages. But yet, there is NOTHING NADA, ZILCH, ZERO! At some point, someone is going to be right. LOL.

Stay tuned folks, it should be interesting TOMORROW!


I am not sure what we are supposed to talk about while we wait for more info, if we can't entertain educated guesses and intelligent conjecture. I know! Let's talk about politics! :wink:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1588 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:24 pm

C'mon guys????? What the heck? I go away for just a couple hours and look at what you've done with this disturbance! Convection mostly gone, no dense overcast, no clear-cut COC...... smh
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1589 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:27 pm

How long will it take for recon to get there?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1590 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:28 pm

This is a decently strong signal (white bit of the system below):

Image
from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF
Last edited by BobHarlem on Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1591 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:28 pm

chaser1 wrote:C'mon guys????? What the heck? I go away for just a couple hours and look at what you've done with this disturbance! Convection mostly gone, no dense overcast, no clear-cut COC...... smh


I was just thinking the same thing. I looked at this last about 3 hours ago and it looks like convection has decreased considerably. However, it's not too unusual considering the time of day.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1592 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:30 pm

Buoy 42059 to the W of the low pressure center, reports from the missing data since earlier this morning started coming in, it shows how the winds started changing to the NNW through early afternoon after being from NNE earlier in the morning.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1593 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:32 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
BadLarry95 wrote:When’s the next recon gonna fly?

8pm

It was suppose to take off about 30 minutes ago. 2300Z
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1594 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:38 pm

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1595 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:40 pm

Probably won't get an upgrade until it's passed the GAs.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1596 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:40 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


Slowing down..
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1597 Postby abajan » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:41 pm

CM2 wrote:
CaribJam wrote:Can a pro explain this extract from the discussion for me, please:
More recently, a band has
developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation
and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a
well-defined center


Are they hinting/suggesting that the "centre" may be forming to the southwest? And what influence will this have on the short-term movement of the system, especially for us in the Central Caribbean?
Thanks

If it's further south, then that means the general path of the storm will also be further south, though because it's a big storm it isn't gonna rapidly intensify anytime soon. We don't really know where the storm is going because the models are initializing it about 70-80 miles north of where it probably actually is. Though worse case you end up with some sloppy tropical storm weather. I don't think there is any doubt the greater Antilles are not gonna receive anything more than a TS at worse. The main concern for a hurricane in any capacity is mainly the Bahamas and the US.

Yeah, and a bunch of torrential rainfall. Let's not forget that little detail, shall we.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1598 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:44 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:C'mon guys????? What the heck? I go away for just a couple hours and look at what you've done with this disturbance! Convection mostly gone, no dense overcast, no clear-cut COC...... smh


I was just thinking the same thing. I looked at this last about 3 hours ago and it looks like convection has decreased considerably. However, it's not too unusual considering the time of day.


Well to be honest, it's not altogether unusual considering that we're dealing with 92L :ggreen:

I'm thinking it's about time to put out an APB for any one of our old forum historical data specialists. What is the S2K record for number of "Potential Tropical Cyclone" Discussion Pages for a system that was never named? Larry, Andrew, Steve.... anyone lol?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1599 Postby Hammy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:47 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Probably won't get an upgrade until it's passed the GAs.


Won't likely be anything left, I'm not buying the models given they showed the same sort of intensification with other weaker storms in this location and it doesn't happen.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1600 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:48 pm

CM2 wrote:Well this should make you think.
https://imgur.com/2MiHFHc


Can you link me to this?
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