2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Steve]

Shell,

Give up on that I’m starting to think. We are hitting I in July. Maybe there is a week or two delay in August. Maybe not. I don’t expect 33 or 05 by December. But I could see Top 10% of most categories of measurement opposite a major volcanic eruption in the pacific. If you are down, I’ll bet you 50.00 to the animal rescue of your choice that we will name past the R storm AND end up with over 145 ACE. You in?

[CyclonicFury]

The MDR is definitely warm enough to support a hyperactive season. It's all going to come down to shear and dry air...
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1288218502709407744

[captainbarbossa19]

The MDR is definitely warm enough to support a hyperactive season. It's all going to come down to shear and dry air...
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1288218502709407744

We must not forget that we are still in July. Dry air and SAL typically start to become less dominant starting in mid-August. It seems like many people believe that these factors are going to be a recurring problem for the rest of the season, but this time of the year is generally unfavorable for development. I am still very surprised that Gonzalo managed to form and now we have PTC 9. This season spells trouble if (and likely when) the shear and dry air/SAL relax.

[St0rmTh0r]

The MDR is definitely warm enough to support a hyperactive season. It's all going to come down to shear and dry air...
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1288218502709407744

We must not forget that we are still in July. Dry air and SAL typically start to become less dominant starting in mid-August. It seems like many people believe that these factors are going to be a recurring problem for the rest of the season, but this time of the year is generally unfavorable for development. I am still very surprised that Gonzalo managed to form and now we have PTC 9. This season spells trouble if (and likely when) the shear and dry air/SAL relax.

And there's another wave right behind 9 and it is about to be August. If this isn't a sign that it's about to go nuclear I don't know what is. This season has had more activity than most seasons have through September. When conditions do hit their peak this year are........

[hurricaneCW]

I think we're entering a lull period until August 15-20 and then we'll see a huge burst of activity.

Expecting hyperactive season here. Also the lack of Pacific activity is usually a red flag for an active season for us.

[TheStormExpert]

I think we're entering a lull period until August 15-20 and then we'll see a huge burst of activity.

Expecting hyperactive season here. Also the lack of Pacific activity is usually a red flag for an active season for us.

Just about ready to say a lull after PTC-9/Isaias is expected until about mid-late August before the real games begin!

[aspen]

A lull in the first half of August might make the rest of August more active by giving SSTs in the Gulf and around Florida time to rebound after being disturbed by 91L/Hanna. And, of course, SSTs all over the basin would be warming during that time frame and won’t be disturbed by TCs.

[EquusStorm]

Awesome little MCV maybe trying to spin up south of Cape Cod

[DestinHurricane]

I think the rest of the season will be rather quiet.

[CyclonicFury]

I think the rest of the season will be rather quiet.

Why is that?

[jaxfladude]

Season cancel posts or wait til mid late August to See if Season is quiet?

Lots of tropical storms minimum cat hurricanes and few majors if any at all?
Or just wait for the big boys and girls?

[Kazmit]

Season cancel posts or wait til mid late August to See if Season is quiet?

Lots of tropical storms minimum cat hurricanes and few majors if any at all?
Or just wait for the big boys and girls?

Not at all unusual that everything has been rather weak so far. 2017 didn't get its first major until late August.

[tolakram]

I think the rest of the season will be rather quiet.

You'll have to do better than that. Why do you think this?

[DestinHurricane]

I think the rest of the season will be rather quiet.

You'll have to do better than that. Why do you think this?

I read somewhere that the tradewinds wont be conductive for development in the MDR. Also shear looks like it could be a problem long term. Also the activity that we have had has been mostly storms that barley got a name. It seems impressive to be at the I storm in July but when you consider the previous storms it seems less impressive.

[EquusStorm]

Some of y'all forgot about 2017's pitiful first five storms and record low per-storm pre-August ACE real fast

[Steve]

I think the rest of the season will be rather quiet.

You'll have to do better than that. Why do you think this?

I read somewhere that the tradewinds wont be conductive for development in the MDR. Also shear looks like it could be a problem long term. Also the activity that we have had has been mostly storms that barley got a name. It seems impressive to be at the I storm in July but when you consider the previous storms it seems less impressive.

MDR doesn't really matter as much as people think. Look at the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracks-Map on wikipedia. It's also not unimpressive that we will have had 9 named storms through July with only one or two becoming a hurricane. That's usually the way things work, just not anywhere near as many as we already have. Shear is shear. It being there itself is not necessarily a problem. It depends on its juxtaposition to a low level center and where/how it's positioned in the atmosphere. You know that. It's one thing if you have a persistent 30-35mph flow SW-NE across the Gulf. But that hasn't been the case.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think the rest of the season will be rather quiet.

You'll have to do better than that. Why do you think this?

I read somewhere that the tradewinds wont be conductive for development in the MDR. Also shear looks like it could be a problem long term. Also the activity that we have had has been mostly storms that barley got a name. It seems impressive to be at the I storm in July but when you consider the previous storms it seems less impressive.

I have a feeling this is going to age about as well as that “Why is it so quiet?” thread that got brought back up from August 20th, 2005

[TheStormExpert]

You'll have to do better than that. Why do you think this?

I read somewhere that the tradewinds wont be conductive for development in the MDR. Also shear looks like it could be a problem long term. Also the activity that we have had has been mostly storms that barley got a name. It seems impressive to be at the I storm in July but when you consider the previous storms it seems less impressive.

I have a feeling this is going to age about as well as that “Why is it so quiet?” thread that got brought back up from August 20th, 2005

Well you’d HOPE this aged well but I hope you didn’t just jinx us all!

All I know is something seems off this season and I don’t know what?

[TheStormExpert]

Some of y'all forgot about 2017's pitiful first five storms and record low per-storm pre-August ACE real fast

I’m thinking we’ll get some more hurricanes this season, just not the high number that years like 2005, 2010, or 2017 saw.

[CyclonicFury]

I read somewhere that the tradewinds wont be conductive for development in the MDR. Also shear looks like it could be a problem long term. Also the activity that we have had has been mostly storms that barley got a name. It seems impressive to be at the I storm in July but when you consider the previous storms it seems less impressive.

I have a feeling this is going to age about as well as that “Why is it so quiet?” thread that got brought back up from August 20th, 2005

Well you’d HOPE this aged well but I hope you didn’t just jinx us all!

All I know is something seems off this season and I don’t know what?

What? The Atlantic is at a record pace in named storms, has had a hurricane more than 2 weeks before the average first hurricane date, and ACE is the 6th-highest through this date in the satellite era?