ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1701 Postby CM2 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:31 pm

Ladies and gentalmen, May I present Tropical Storm Isaias!

And also West blob wins out, how will Team East Blob ever recover!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1702 Postby caneseddy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:31 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Well that big blowup of convection FINALLY did the trick. We have Isaias at long last!


About time. Now the fun begins :lol:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1703 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:31 pm

I don’t see that NHC has declared it yet.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1704 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:32 pm

ronjon wrote: :uarrow: Sure looks like the southern lobe has now developed a closed circulation. Apparently the UkMET and CMC operational and ensemble runs from 12z correctly initialized the low pressure and movement south of the islands.


Yes. This is going bit farther west folks! before going poleward.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1705 Postby caneseddy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
ronjon wrote: :uarrow: Sure looks like the southern lobe has now developed a closed circulation. Apparently the UkMET and CMC operational and ensemble runs from 12z correctly initialized the low pressure and movement south of the islands.


Yes. This is going fa bit farther west folks!


Looks like it. May mean the 18z euro may not be so far off with its track. We shall see
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1706 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm

pgoss11 wrote:I don’t see that NHC has declared it yet.


They will.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1707 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:33 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
ronjon wrote: :uarrow: Sure looks like the southern lobe has now developed a closed circulation. Apparently the UkMET and CMC operational and ensemble runs from 12z correctly initialized the low pressure and movement south of the islands.


Yes. This is going bit farther west folks!


West and weaker.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1708 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:34 pm

Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 09, 2020073000, , BEST, 0, 157N, 663W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 120, 1009, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAIAS, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,

AL092020 - Tropical Storm ISAIAS


Finally!!!! :D
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1709 Postby aspen » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:34 pm

Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 09, 2020073000, , BEST, 0, 157N, 663W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 300, 0, 0, 120, 1009, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAIAS, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,

AL092020 - Tropical Storm ISAIAS

And with that, another record falls. Isaias has become the record earliest 9th named storm by 8 days; Irene ‘05 was named on August 7th.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1710 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:36 pm

NHC going with 15.7N it would seem. Huge chunk down from 16.4N at 5pm. Once again, that throws the models into question.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1711 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:39 pm

my news not heard news yet
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1712 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:40 pm

this may gave more time get stronger if more south and nhc have it 8pm
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1713 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:41 pm

floridasun78 wrote:this may gave more time get stronger if more south and nhc have it 8pm


Would be weaker due to land interaction.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1714 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:42 pm

Well good eyes by the ones who saw the LLC forming today it was only a matter of time. Now the real difficult part begins intensity and landfall location
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1715 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:43 pm

Isaias is the fifth storm this month in JULY! Just absolutely mind blowing to have this many storms in this partiicular month, so early into the season.

We are going to need those extra Greek Alphabet names for sure this year at this pace.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1716 Postby Ian2401 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:44 pm

if you watched levi’s video he went into how the northern lobe is gonna fully rotate around (already has rotated mostly around it) and will help pull the stronger S lobe more NW for at least a little bit...so i wouldn’t get TOO caught up in the southern formation, will have to see how much it affects track when next couple model runs come out
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1717 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:44 pm

Now the question is, how far west will it get before it falls apart all together, due to either land interaction or bad environment? .... I guess we will have to wait and see for that one.....
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1718 Postby Michele B » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:50 pm

CM2 wrote:Ladies and gentalmen, May I present Tropical Storm Isaias!
https://imgur.com/sDAy2mN
And also West blob wins out, how will Team East Blob ever recover!



OH, NOOO!!!

Now we really DO have to figure out how to pronounce the name!!!!!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1719 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:50 pm

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS (PRONOUNCED ees-ah-EE-ahs)...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#1720 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:51 pm

ouflow is spectacular. so much convection has been forcing the upper high to stay over it and pushing back the shear axis..

Image
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