HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Agree with the doubt regarding this run of the GFS. Forecasted IR is nowhere close to reality
https://i.imgur.com/bJ0Juaq.png
i had to laugh at this one.
the start of this run is simply not reality.
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HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Agree with the doubt regarding this run of the GFS. Forecasted IR is nowhere close to reality
https://i.imgur.com/bJ0Juaq.png
SouthFLTropics wrote:I'm guessing that the most recent data that led to the 11:00 PM upgrade was probably not fed into these 00z runs. We may not see much of a change in the models due to this until 06z. If that is the case you can throw this GFS run in the trash.
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Agree with the doubt regarding this run of the GFS. Forecasted IR is nowhere close to reality
https://i.imgur.com/bJ0Juaq.png
i had to laugh at this one.
the start of this run is simply not reality.
AJC3 wrote:Before completely dismissing the model solutions that show a NNW "jump" toward/around the eastern side of Hispanola, consider that the new center position is still on the SE side of the envelope of a larger gyre. Because of this, there may be a tendency for Isaias to get tugged a little more northward in the short term (12-18hr) before turning WNW to NW again. On the other hand, if Isaias tries to shed the banding well to its N and NE and become more symmetrical at a faster clip, then it would be more likely to go farther westward compared to those model solutions.
Should be interesting to watch evolve.
ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:
TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57
ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:
TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57
TheProfessor wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:
TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57
It's east of the 12z, but it's doing something similar. It hits Florida before turning northeast and intensifying on it's way to the Carolinas.
Evil Jeremy wrote:CMC still wants to bring this to the west coast of Florida. ICON still hugging the east coast from about WPB - Daytona before starting to move NNE.
TheProfessor wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:
TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57
It's east of the 12z, but it's doing something similar. It hits Florida before turning northeast and intensifying on it's way to the Carolinas.
STRiZZY wrote:TheProfessor wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:
TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57
It's east of the 12z, but it's doing something similar. It hits Florida before turning northeast and intensifying on it's way to the Carolinas.
Hits Miami square on as a minimal TS.
emeraldislenc wrote:How strong will it me around Morehead City?
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