ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1401 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:53 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Agree with the doubt regarding this run of the GFS. Forecasted IR is nowhere close to reality

https://i.imgur.com/bJ0Juaq.png

i had to laugh at this one.

the start of this run is simply not reality.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1402 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:56 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I'm guessing that the most recent data that led to the 11:00 PM upgrade was probably not fed into these 00z runs. We may not see much of a change in the models due to this until 06z. If that is the case you can throw this GFS run in the trash. :Can:

Yeah the 00z GFS is definitely unrealistic, just look at the simulated IR of the imaginary blob it shows north of Puerto Rico.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1403 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:57 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Agree with the doubt regarding this run of the GFS. Forecasted IR is nowhere close to reality

https://i.imgur.com/bJ0Juaq.png

i had to laugh at this one.

the start of this run is simply not reality.


Yep.. In the models defense though we FINALLY got confirmation on a COC so can't expect much from them under the previous circumstances. Whats the old saying? "Garbage in garbage out".
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1404 Postby Hd444 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:00 pm

Ir blob lifting north like gfs shows. The us coming north.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1405 Postby AJC3 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:00 pm

Before completely dismissing the model solutions that show a NNW "jump" toward/around the eastern side of Hispanola, consider that the new center position is still on the SE side of the envelope of a larger gyre. Because of this, there may be a tendency for Isaias to get tugged a little more northward in the short term (12-18hr) before turning WNW to NW again. On the other hand, if Isaias tries to shed the banding well to its N and NE and become more symmetrical at a faster clip, then it would be more likely to go farther westward compared to those model solutions.

Should be interesting to watch evolve.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1406 Postby Hd444 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:04 pm

AJC3 wrote:Before completely dismissing the model solutions that show a NNW "jump" toward/around the eastern side of Hispanola, consider that the new center position is still on the SE side of the envelope of a larger gyre. Because of this, there may be a tendency for Isaias to get tugged a little more northward in the short term (12-18hr) before turning WNW to NW again. On the other hand, if Isaias tries to shed the banding well to its N and NE and become more symmetrical at a faster clip, then it would be more likely to go farther westward compared to those model solutions.

Should be interesting to watch evolve.

Full moon next week .
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1407 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:05 pm

The 0zGFS has a cat 2 hurricane around Cape Hatteras at 108 hrs, may have to watch this in the Northeastern US, who knows what’s going to happen but this run is Interesting
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1408 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:13 pm

The CMC just started running on TT and it appears that it initialized the center pretty close to where the NHC has it at 11:00 PM. Let's see how the old crazy uncle CMC plays this one out.

Image
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1409 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:13 pm

Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1410 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:17 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57


It's east of the 12z, but it's doing something similar. It hits Florida before turning northeast and intensifying on it's way to the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1411 Postby sma10 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:18 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57


Pretty cool how you can see the center re-location "jump" occurs between T+24 and T+36
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1412 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:19 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57


It's east of the 12z, but it's doing something similar. It hits Florida before turning northeast and intensifying on it's way to the Carolinas.


The low to mid level shear vectors will be more favorable north of the Bahamas. Fully expect this to intensify at least modestly if it makes it that far north before making landfall.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1413 Postby Hd444 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:23 pm

Gfs has a big trough.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1414 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:27 pm

CMC still wants to bring this to the west coast of Florida. ICON still hugging the east coast from about WPB - Daytona before starting to move NNE.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1415 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:29 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:CMC still wants to bring this to the west coast of Florida. ICON still hugging the east coast from about WPB - Daytona before starting to move NNE.

depending on what the euro says tonight, every model besides the gfs either landfall in florida, or come extremely close (nav).

will be interesting to see what the 06z and 12z shifts bring.
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1416 Postby emeraldislenc » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:29 pm

How strong will it me around Morehead City?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1417 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:30 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57


It's east of the 12z, but it's doing something similar. It hits Florida before turning northeast and intensifying on it's way to the Carolinas.


Hits Miami square on as a minimal TS.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1418 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:31 pm

STRiZZY wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Major changes on the 0z UKMET. Morehead City, NC landfall as a hurricane:

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57


It's east of the 12z, but it's doing something similar. It hits Florida before turning northeast and intensifying on it's way to the Carolinas.


Hits Miami square on as a minimal TS.


Well between Homestead and Miami
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1419 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:31 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:How strong will it me around Morehead City?


UKMET saying minimal Cat 1.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1420 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:33 pm

It wouldn't be hurricane season without a bunch of people now dismissing the models because of the east shift. :lol:

Last night, when the west shift happened, it was gospel for many. Gotta love hurricane season. :D

BTW, who's staying up for the EURO now?
Last edited by SoupBone on Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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