ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

CMC still wants to bring this to the west coast of Florida. ICON still hugging the east coast from about WPB - Daytona before starting to move NNE.

depending on what the euro says tonight, every model besides the gfs either landfall in florida, or come extremely close (nav).

will be interesting to see what the 06z and 12z shifts bring.

I'm not fully convinced today's east shifts will stick, not if Isias keeps moving South of forecast.

Thankfully, I'm about to hit the fast forward button 8 hours, by which I mean it's time to sleep. There should be some clarity in the morning.

[Hd444]

Models show a phased trough over the east , this favors entrance quad over the storm and intensification with forward acceleration. The trough is similar to gloria and 1938.

[ColdMiser123]

How strong will it me around Morehead City?

UKMET saying minimal Cat 1.

I would be willing to bet that those UKMET wind text products are likely underdone for a storm with pressure in the low 970s.

[BobHarlem]

How strong will it me around Morehead City?

UKMET saying minimal Cat 1.

I would be willing to bet that those UKMET wind text products are likely underdone for a storm with pressure in the low 970s.

That pressure (973) is more typical of a mid range Cat 2 hurricane.

[STRiZZY]

Now that the COC is finally there I can get some sleep tonight. Look forward to seeing the overnight/morning runs after I wake up.

[ColdFront77]

Unlike Hanna, even if this DOES develop later on in the period, it’s going to be moving so fast that it’s not going to have the chance to do anything. No wonder most of the models aren’t developing it much

It isn't forecast to be moving that fast. It cannot change direction faster or at the same speed. The high pressure that is steering it may also cause it to slow down.

7/29 at 11pm to 7/30 at 8am: 23.11mph
7/30 at 8am to 7/30 at 8pm: 22.17
7/30 at 8pm to 7/31 at 8am: 20.08
7/31 at 8am to 7/31 at 8pm: 19.67
7/31 at 8pm to 8/1 at 8am: 17.58
8/1 at 8am to 8/1 at 8pm: 13.92
8/1 at 8pm to 8/2 at 8pm: 11.46
8/2 at 8pm to 8/3 at 8pm: 7.16

This morning's forecast speeds were 21.55, 20.75, 19.16, 18.33, 14.33, 11.83, 9.54 and 8.08 mph.

[Craters]

Before completely dismissing the model solutions that show a NNW "jump" toward/around the eastern side of Hispanola, consider that the new center position is still on the SE side of the envelope of a larger gyre. Because of this, there may be a tendency for Isaias to get tugged a little more northward in the short term (12-18hr) before turning WNW to NW again. On the other hand, if Isaias tries to shed the banding well to its N and NE and become more symmetrical at a faster clip, then it would be more likely to go farther westward compared to those model solutions.

Should be interesting to watch evolve.

Full moon next week .

In August, 2020...

[SoupBone]

I'm sniffing a west shift in the EURO. Any takers?

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm sniffing a west shift in the EURO. Any takers?

I would think East shift since the EURO has already shifted West, which seems to be the opposite of all the other models...

[Kat5]

Looks like it’s going to come in weaker and recurve sooner, similar to the GFS.

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro is weaker and makes landfall in South Florida. Very much like the CMC.


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[Blown Away]

00z EURO 72 hours landfall Homestead FL then across peninsula towards Sarasota.

[Fancy1001]

The Euro has it hitting both the Miami and Tampa areas as a weak ts.

[NDG]

The Euro shows a stronger ridge to the north & E of Isaías to keep it from turning north before FL, compared to the GFS, the CMC agrees with the Euro.

[NDG]

A mojority of the Euro ensembles also shifted to the west from its previous 12z run, still has a few staying well offshore of FL.

[NDG]

As mentioned by the NHC, intensity models are going up with Isaias, SHIPS doesn't paint as an ugly picture for it as it did earlier.

[NDG]

06z GFS shifted to the west, weaker and is a little slower than previous 2 runs.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Of course it trends weaker and west when "nowcast" shows the storm a little more north

The general trend seems to be a weaker storm will go more west, while a stronger storm will go east of Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

It looks like the hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, etc.) didn’t run overnight. That seems odd.


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[CM2]

It looks like the hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, etc.) didn’t run overnight. That seems odd.


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Well the Hmon is running and even though it is slightly weaker this run, I have a feeling it is under-intensifying the storm this time around with what we know now.