ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
CM2
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 103
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:41 am

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1821 Postby CM2 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:41 am

NDG wrote:Nice TS force winds by buoy just off the southern coast of Puerto Rico, just in case wxman57 says he can't find any TS force winds near it 8-)

https://i.imgur.com/7fOFooJ.gif

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42085

I wonder why the pressure is lowest on that buoy? It's quite far out of the way and you would think the center would be over on the south-west corner of the Island.
0 likes   
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15449
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1822 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:49 am

CM2 wrote:
NDG wrote:Nice TS force winds by buoy just off the southern coast of Puerto Rico, just in case wxman57 says he can't find any TS force winds near it 8-)

https://i.imgur.com/7fOFooJ.gif

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42085

I wonder why the pressure is lowest on that buoy? It's quite far out of the way and you would think the center would be over on the south-west corner of the Island.


Maybe is not calibrated right, a station in SW P.R. are reporting pressures a little higher and winds from the SE.
0 likes   

User avatar
CM2
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 103
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:41 am

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1823 Postby CM2 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:50 am

NDG wrote:
CM2 wrote:
NDG wrote:Nice TS force winds by buoy just off the southern coast of Puerto Rico, just in case wxman57 says he can't find any TS force winds near it 8-)

https://i.imgur.com/7fOFooJ.gif

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42085

I wonder why the pressure is lowest on that buoy? It's quite far out of the way and you would think the center would be over on the south-west corner of the Island.


Maybe is not calibrated right, a station in SW P.R. are reporting pressures a little higher and winds from the SE.

Yeah I noticed the Winds to the SSE too on this station (and as typing this to the SE 140 now.)
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=mgip4
0 likes   
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2660
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1824 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:50 am

How can land interaction be beneficial for a developing system? 06z GFS forecast gives a great example. Currently it's focused on the low-level vort signature that is currently passing over PR (see CM2's post on pressure drops over PR above), and will rotate off the northern coast later this morning (can see this feature on radar loop as well). As the broad circulation (green) makes landfall in Hispaniola, some of these mesovort signatures will cease on the SW and W quadrants, and this favors the already established vort signature off the coast to the north (blue) that is rotating off PR right now:

Image

Image
7 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1825 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:52 am

Getting caught up with things as I am getting my motor running so speak.

Looks like LLC and the MLC will align and form a new center point somewhere around the North coast of DR later this morning, looking at radar and satellite data currently.

Took a peek at the 700 mb steering. Ridge still looks rather stout early this morning, extending out at this time all the way to the Central GOM. This system moves generally west-northwest today. Also, I am concerned about those very wsrm ssts in the area off the North coast of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. I am telling you, this cyclone could end up intensifyng much more than the models have shown in recent days. I am going to be monitoring this very closely today.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
5 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2660
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1826 Postby USTropics » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:54 am

USTropics wrote:How can land interaction be beneficial for a developing system? 06z GFS forecast gives a great example. Currently it's focused on the low-level vort signature that is currently passing over PR (see CM2's post on pressure drops over PR above), and will rotate off the northern coast later this morning (can see this feature on radar loop as well). As the broad circulation (green) makes landfall in Hispaniola, some of these mesovort signatures will cease on the SW and W quadrants, and this favors the already established vort signature off the coast to the north (blue) that is rotating off PR right now:

https://i.imgur.com/TzgYbJf.png

https://i.imgur.com/yd3KfcP.gif


I'll emphasize this is just one model's solution, its forecast of this evolution could be completely wrong. That's how a more northerly component is established though (compared to a more western solution on other model forecasts).
2 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11509
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1827 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:58 am

The big tell next is what happens to the LL winds as they hit the NE DR shore.
If they come in strong from the NE, they should pile up fast creating strong convergence which should fire some deep convection.
If they come in weaker and from the east, convergence will be a lot less with weak convection.
Part of the winds would skip off the shore and move to the NW.

The development of the convection will dictate how the vort moves.
If it's deep, it should slingshot to the NW.
If weak, it should cruise more W.

Watching the convection here in a few hours should be a good indicator what happens down the road.
4 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1828 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:00 am

Leave it to this storm to shoot the gap and miss Hispaniola. It wasn't enough of a nuisance so it had to do this too. Could have big implications down the road intensity wise. If the shear and dry air forecasted don't pan out this situation could quickly escalate for people on the east coast/GOM

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
CM2
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 103
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:41 am

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1829 Postby CM2 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:03 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:Leave it to this storm to shoot the gap and miss Hispaniola. It wasn't enough of a nuisance so it had to do this too. Could have big implications down the road intensity wise. If the shear and dry air forecasted don't pan out this situation could quickly escalate for people on the east coast.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

More importantly, if the storm is like a well rounded storm by the time it passes Hispaniola, then those factors like chear and dry air will play less and less of a role in impacting the storm as a stronger storm is gonna knock those issues off more easily. It's a self feeling loop of favorable conditions if this is going the way I think it's going.
2 likes   
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7188
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1830 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:03 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:Leave it to this storm to shoot the gap and miss Hispaniola. It wasn't enough of a nuisance so it had to do this too. Could have big implications down the road intensity wise. If the shear and dry air forecasted don't pan out this situation could quickly escalate for people on the east coast.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

We have seen this before, tropical systems avoiding land anyway possible, we had one about 15 years ago literally bounce of the southern coast of Jamaica on its journey to the west
6 likes   

HurricaneFrances04
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1831 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:03 am

Had my doubts last night based off satellite appearances, but it looks like the GFS nailed the short term evolution of this one.
2 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11509
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1832 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:07 am

Very strong rain-rate half-hour ago.
Heating up the mid-levels.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11509
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1833 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:09 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Had my doubts last night based off satellite appearances, but it looks like the GFS nailed the short term evolution of this one.


GFS seems to improve quite a bit once recon data gets in.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1834 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:11 am

jlauderdal wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:Leave it to this storm to shoot the gap and miss Hispaniola. It wasn't enough of a nuisance so it had to do this too. Could have big implications down the road intensity wise. If the shear and dry air forecasted don't pan out this situation could quickly escalate for people on the east coast.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

We have seen this before, tropical systems avoiding land anyway possible, we had one about 15 years ago literally bounce of the southern coast of Jamaica on its journey to the west

That was Ivan in 2004. Another one of those dreaded “I” storms that pulled off that dance around Jamaica.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15449
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1835 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:11 am

I am still having a hard time believing that Isaias will have SW shear over it with a trough all the way west of the MS River valley. It could make its own environment with plenty of space between it and the trough to the NW of it.
Charley had to deal with a trough even deeper than that.
4 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1836 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:16 am

NDG wrote:I am still having a hard time believing that Isaias will have SW shear over it with a trough all the way west of the MS River valley. It could make its own environment with plenty of space between it and the trough to the NW of it.
Charley had to deal with a trough even deeper than that.


Agree!!
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
CM2
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 103
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:41 am

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1837 Postby CM2 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:18 am

Here is some interesting (And super recent) shots

3 likes   
Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1838 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:20 am

Are there any upper atmospheric recon missions planned?
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1922
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1839 Postby otowntiger » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:22 am

Any reports from Puerto Rico? It looks like they are taking the brunt of what Isaias has to offer currently. Luis?
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7188
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1840 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:23 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:Leave it to this storm to shoot the gap and miss Hispaniola. It wasn't enough of a nuisance so it had to do this too. Could have big implications down the road intensity wise. If the shear and dry air forecasted don't pan out this situation could quickly escalate for people on the east coast.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

We have seen this before, tropical systems avoiding land anyway possible, we had one about 15 years ago literally bounce of the southern coast of Jamaica on its journey to the west

That was Ivan in 2004. Another one of those dreaded “I” storms that pulled off that dance around Jamaica.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Good Memory, I had the time right but forgot the name which is a big fail..ivan was intense


youtube wins again https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCQBXu7JE0U
3 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests