ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I agree northjax, intensity uncertainty has me concerned with this system. Hopefully we will have a better idea by later today. I also agree that Charlie was steered by a trough while undergoing RI the whole time. Not saying this is the case, but as the TC is getting better organized this morning, something that has me concerned. Watching the trends today.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GFS has been consistent in showing Isaias being under a strong UL jet 2 days out when over Andros.
How much convection will modify this is yet to be determined IMHO.

How much convection will modify this is yet to be determined IMHO.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Isaias said: “What mountains”, it’s going straight through the pass. With nothing but better conditions and hot water ahead, we now have an entirely different situation on our hands. No way this doesn’t become a hurricane, and if it doesn’t make major status, I’ll be shocked.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AdamFirst wrote:Are there any upper atmospheric recon missions planned?
Well as of now we got recon going into the storm. I can't tell you how excited I am.
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Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.
Should leave same or push a button west with euro Miami to Tampa and 6z GFS shifting west this morn.
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GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Since Isaias has already started making that NW turn, is it safe to say that the central Gulf Coast is out of any eventual path?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.
Not when the GFS and Euro have actually shifted west, lol.
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- DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.
Not if the ridge is stout.
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Michael 2018
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CM2 wrote:AdamFirst wrote:Are there any upper atmospheric recon missions planned?
Well as of now we got recon going into the storm. I can't tell you how excited I am.
https://imgur.com/scVYVT8
Nice thing it will be a short trip to get there

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Vdogg wrote:Isaias said: “What mountains”, it’s going straight through the pass. With nothing but better conditions and hot water ahead, we now have an entirely different situation on our hands. No way this doesn’t become a hurricane, and if it doesn’t make major status, I’ll be shocked.
Not to say it will, but just being a solid structure quite impacts the effects those elements have on the storm. The stronger the storm, the more resistent it is to factors like that.
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Large Signatures are for losers.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Isaias is trying to thread the needle right now with the mid level circulation still over water right now
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1288784752716263425
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1288784752716263425
Last edited by Highteeld on Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:SFLcane wrote:I see the eastward shifts continue next couple of advisories I bet FL is completely out of the cone from this one. Looks a lot better organized this morning.
Not when the GFS and Euro have actually shifted west, lol.
Hey NDG!
You know how it is SFL always in the cone only to get out. I keep looking at Satellite imagery this morning and is it me or this is going to get out of the islands with much trouble?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Still could be some Low Level energy south of the convection that we will be able to see with the visible loop later.
Buoy reports of SSE winds east of the Mona passage and the convection evolution certainly make it look like much of the energy is headed to the north coast of Hispaniola. Stronger system will resist shear but if the troughiness along the eastern CONUS persists and doesn't fill(from stronger storm outflow) models might recurve the system.
Buoy reports of SSE winds east of the Mona passage and the convection evolution certainly make it look like much of the energy is headed to the north coast of Hispaniola. Stronger system will resist shear but if the troughiness along the eastern CONUS persists and doesn't fill(from stronger storm outflow) models might recurve the system.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Mcc forming with mcv. The llc will reform into the blob north of dr. Rapid intensificstion likely into a major in a few days .
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Massive hot tower in the Mona now.
Good thing they are taking a C130 instead of a P3.
Good thing they are taking a C130 instead of a P3.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Massive hot tower in the Mona now.
Good thing they are taking a C130 instead of a P3.
In the air
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- HurricaneEnzo
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like maybe some slight land interaction will occur but minimal at best. Someone posted a graphic earlier showing that area of Hispaniola is not nearly as mountanous as the rest. Probably won't have much of an impact. This storm continues to be frustrating lolHighteeld wrote:Isaias is trying to thread the needle right now with the mid level circulation still over water right now
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1288784752716263425
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Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sun just staring to come up on Isaias. Should be able to get a good look on visible soon and maybe determine exactly where LLC is in relation to Hispaniola.
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Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
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