ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[AdamFirst]

The HWRF hasn't run since 18z yesterday, at least according to the Tropical Tidbits plots. Anybody know whats going on with that?

The 06z HMON is currently running.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The 00Z HWRF is available here - https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

[Kat5]

06z HMON is further East than before. Seems like the current trend.

[gatorcane]

Looks like little by little, the GFS is going with a stronger 500mb ridge off the SE US coast. I am looking at the 18Z, 00z, and 06Z runs.

[NDG]

Of course it trends weaker and west when "nowcast" shows the storm a little more north

The general trend seems to be a weaker storm will go more west, while a stronger storm will go east of Florida.

Not so much, the latest 06z shifted west because it shows a stronger ridge than previous two runs, but it shows stronger SW shear over it the reason it shows it weaker than previous runs.

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like little by little, the GFS is going with a stronger 500mb ridge off the SE US coast. I am looking at the 18Z, 00z, and 06Z runs.

This is why I am not confident that the storm will stay significantly east of FL.

[gatorcane]

GFS ensembles also shifted a bit west. Plenty of time for some more shifts.

[SFLcane]

GFS ensembles also shifted a bit west. Plenty of time for some more shifts.

https://i.postimg.cc/yY4XtF8G/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-11.png

Woah! Interesting Gatorcane thx for posting. Might push the tcvn back over FL.

[NDG]

06z HMON is further East than before. Seems like the current trend.

I wouldn't trust HMON past 24-36 hrs. The same model that was forecasting Hanna to make landfall near Port O'Connor a little over two days before landfall while the Euro was already pointing towards S TX.

[Evan_Wilson]

With this thing skirting through the Mona passage It’d be betting for a stronger storm and a more eastern track.

[jlauderdal]

GFS ensembles also shifted a bit west. Plenty of time for some more shifts.

https://i.postimg.cc/yY4XtF8G/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-11.png

Woah! Interesting Gatorcane thx for posting. Might push the tcvn back over FL.

Nhc has been left of guidance, will continue with that gfs run..upper keys, miami, jupiter, freeport look like good bets for landfall

[MJGarrison]

06Z Euro takes the same track, but just a hair slower.


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[WeatherEmperor]

06Z Euro takes the same track, but just a hair slower.


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What intensity is it showing? Stronger or weaker than before?

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM shifts west and is stronger:

[caneseddy]

NAVGEM shifts west and is stronger:

https://i.postimg.cc/8cxbp0M8/navgem-mslp-pcpn-watl-11.png

Well this is interesting. Models are slowly showing a stronger ridge than prior runs. The Euro was the first to start sniffing it out several runs ago and it seems that at this moment the rest are picking it up. We shall see what the rest of the day brings

[ava_ati]

06Z Euro takes the same track, but just a hair slower.


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What intensity is it showing? Stronger or weaker than before?

The 06 is WAY weaker, it has an open trough dragging over Cuba with convection to the north then finally wrapping a center before going into Miami as a 1002 TS

[SFLcane]

06Z Euro takes the same track, but just a hair slower.


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What intensity is it showing? Stronger or weaker than before?

About a moderate TS.

[catskillfire51]

06Z Euro takes the same track, but just a hair slower.


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What intensity is it showing? Stronger or weaker than before?

1004MB into the keys it looks, Key Largo specifically.

[northjaxpro]

ahh, there is a reason folks why the latest west shifts in the models are happening.

Just take a good look at the 700 mb steering. The ridge is stout currently extendind west to the Central Gulf.

The ttough is well back yo the west currently and I do not think the trough will deeply amplify like what GFS showed yesterday in its model runs.

I really hope I am wrong and that the GFS is going to send a Fall-like amplified trough to come and get shoved away off the U.S. East Coast. However, I do not see that hsppening fast enough. Isaias likely willl be a major problem for many this weekend. into early next week from Florida north up the U.S. East Coast.

I can not believe the Bahamss is likely going to get heavily impacted by another cyclone so soon after the Dorian catastrophe.

[Stangfriik]

:uarrow: ahh, there is a reason folks why the latest west shifts in the models are happening.

Just take a good look at the 700 mb steering. The ridge is stout currently extendind west to the Central Gulf.

The ttough is well back yo the west currently and I do not think the trough will deeply amplify like what GFS showed yesterday in its model runs.

I really hope I am wrong and that the GFS is going to send a Fall like amplified trough to come and get shoved away off the U.S. East Coast. However, I do not see that hsppening fast enough. Isaias likely willl be a major problem for many this weekend. into early next week from Florida north up the U.S. East Coast.

I can not believe the Bahamss is likely going to get heavily impacted by another cyclone so soon after the Dorian catasttophe.

Since I'm not the most adept at this, what are the dynamics that will restrict this from strengthening beyond a tropical storm like the nhc map suggests when it'll be riding the gulf stream?