ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like a feeder band is forming to the south and east of where they found the surface low.

[Jr0d]

The swirl on San Juan's radar is the MLC... further north than the current LLC. Hopefullynbynthe time I get home from work tonight(midnightish) we will have a good idea where the storm will likely go and a better idea on intensity.

[GCANE]

Got the hot tower off the NE coast of DR from the convergence of the NE LL winds hitting the DR shore nearly head on.
This should escalate quickly and get the vort positioned north of DR later today.

[cjrciadt]

The swirl on San Juan's radar is the MLC... further north than the current LLC. Hopefullynbynthe time I get home from work tonight(midnightish) we will have a good idea where the storm will likely go and a better idea on intensity.

Yes saw that too.

[RT23]

Wow how this has come together since leaving us in the West Indies, on the other had all eyes to the east for us again , yellow alert issued by NHC for system of COA

[cjrciadt]

https://imgur.com/a/AgH3YTA
Future LLC ?
Current swirl from MLC

[GCANE]

Hot tower and feeder band.
As it moves north of Haiti, that feeder band may choke from the mountains.
Going to need another farther east.

[cjrciadt]

Hot tower and feeder band.
As it moves north of Haiti, that feeder band may choke from the mountains.
Going to need another farther east.

https://i.imgur.com/RcmKWO5.png

The HT spot is the spot I expect to become the new LLC. I might be wrong and to NE though.

[NDG]

This is a big improvement in the satellite presentation from just 24 hrs ago.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow, it really is going through the Mona Passage. What a drastic change from yesterday. Days and days of watching this chug along West, and it’s finally started gaining some serious latitude.

That’s a good sign for Florida, not so much for interests further north. Time to see where the center reforms, the MLC is clearly leading the charge right now. This is really the last wildcard.

[eastcoastFL]

On radar the circulation does appear further north

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

[eastcoastFL]

Hot tower and feeder band.
As it moves north of Haiti, that feeder band may choke from the mountains.
Going to need another farther east.

https://i.imgur.com/RcmKWO5.png

The HT spot is the spot I expect to become the new LLC. I might be wrong and to NE though.

I was looking at it on radar and it seems that’s where the main circulation is currently

[Blown Away]

8:00 AM AST Thu Jul 30
Location: 17.6°N 68.5°W
Moving: NW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

When looking at models and we see 1003 mb, many of us think of that being weak, a 60 mph sustained wind is pretty intense and usually gusts 70-80. That can cause a lot of chaos!

[Do_For_Love]

Ah, so we have Isaias! Wasn't clear to me when I logged off last night if it would get a name or not. I see it has put us in a cone for the 2nd time this year. Isaias is a little scarier than Fay though, lol...

[storm4u]

Watching closely here in southern New England.. even a strong tropical storm minimal hurricane can do alot of damage.. our trees and homes aren't made for this

[AJC3]

OK, "50 cent science" time.

Here's a little schematic which tries to explain the the "fluid mechanics" perspective of the LLC reformation. There's also the VHT/thermodynamic aspect that GCANE is posting about.

The old LLC (yellow x) will move NW and run into Hispaniola, dying a quick death. A new LLC (B) should form in the green circled area, where the MLC (red x) will be moving NW toward. Strong NE flow (red arrows) will deccelerate (frictional slowing) as it reaches the island, due to it being such a large topographic barrier (A). On the other side, the air flow (purple arrows) is largely unrestricted (or at least much less restricted) from the E through S. This creates a natural increase in low level vorticity on the north side of the island. When combined with deep convection/VHT development lowering pressure and also increasing vorticity in that same area, we should see a new LLC form there.

Like I said, "50 cent" science...

edit: just realized I unintentionally used a map that didn't have Puerto Rico on it. This is why I mentioned "much less restricted".

[GCANE]

More infeeds to the SE of the main one.
They'll kick in more as this winds up.

[cjrciadt]

OK, "50 cent science" time.

Here's a little schematic which tries to explain the the "fluid mechanics" perspective of the LLC reformation. There's also the VHT/thermodynamic aspect that GCANE is posting about.

The old LLC (yellow x) will move NW and run into Hispaniola, dying a quick death. A new LLC (B) should form in the green circled area, where the MLC (red x) will be moving NW toward. Strong NE flow (red arrows) will deccelerate (frictional slowing) as it reaches the island, due to it being such a large topographic barrier (A). On the other side, the air flow (purple arrows) is largely unrestricted (or at least much less restricted) from the E through S. This creates a natural increase in low level vorticity on the north side of the island. When combined with deep convection/VHT development lowering pressure and also increasing vorticity in that same area, we should see a new LLC form there.

Like I said, "50 cent" science...
https://i.imgur.com/3MfPGJQ.png

Thanks! I agree

[Gums]

Salute!

Well, we Panhandle folks are breathing a little easier, but you folks down south look to be in for a windy weekend.

The 1995 season didn't have a lot of storms of note except for we Baja Alabama folks, with two landfalls within a few miles of each other, latest being Opal in October. The majority were out in the Atlantic in August/September

We're doing our best over here to push that sucker further east, but this sucker just shows that we haven't figured out everything for the models, huh?

Gums sends...

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, it really is going through the Mona Passage. What a drastic change from yesterday. Days and days of watching this chug along West, and it’s finally started gaining some serious latitude.

That’s a good sign for Florida, not so much for interests further north. Time to see where the center reforms, the MLC is clearly leading the charge right now. This is really the last wildcard.

You should probably check model runs.