ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288824678065352705

[toad strangler]

Palm Beach post headline:

“Isaias Storm: Tropical Storm now but could be hurricane strength as it nears Florida.”

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/

Where do they come up with this hype!?

Not saying it couldn’t obtain weak hurricane status but come on, too soon. Especially if the current forecast doesn’t call for it.

That's not hype in any way shape or form. People need to be aware that it's at least possible. Can't wait. There isn't much time if it did unfold.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not seeing any westerly wind reports from Recon so this is already poorly defined.

[ava_ati]

I'm not seeing any westerly wind reports from Recon so this is already poorly defined.

I think the LLC is already transitioning N. Hopefully recon heads north to see some of that blob.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Today will be the day of real headaches... land interaction.. MLC has already begun to move over land. so unlikely that will be able to take over.. so cut out the GFS from the list.

Recon still has the center south of the Island. so keep the Euro for now.

Yeah, but that center is moving west and weakening. I want to see them sample the area to the NE of the DR

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not seeing any westerly wind reports from Recon so this is already poorly defined.

Just remember ... eddys eddys and more eddys.

just track the overall mass of the system..

we wont know much until tomorrow when the energy reaches the NW side of the islands ... how well it is still intact and how long it takes to recover.

[NDG]

Punta Cana's pressure is now down to 1004 mb, lower than what the recon is finding further south.

Edit: Levi Cowan beat me to it, lol.

METAR for: MDPC (Punta Cana Intl, --, DR)
Text: MDPC 301300Z 13015G25KT 7000 RA FEW012CB BKN014 OVC070 26/25 Q1004 CB/E/SE/S/N
Temperature: 26.0°C ( 79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.65 inches Hg (1004.0 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.7 m/s) gusting to 29 MPH (25 knots; 12.9 m/s)
Visibility: 4 sm ( 7 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1400 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: RA (moderate rain)

[KWT]

I think as stated above it already is in the process of reformation and the lowering pressure over W.DR below the recon value imo is a rather telling sign of what is happening.

Probably will be a 12-24hr period where it's fairly poorly defined but ultimately the whole complex will focus to the north of Hispaniola.

[Vdogg]

this will almost certainly be a hurricane within 24 hours.

Now this is hype, Palm Beach Post isn't.
It is not certain to be a hurricane but the possibility is there, which is why PBP said that. We can't say definitively if it will or won't become a hurricane but the forecast is leaning towards it won't.

What forecast is that exactly? NHC has a strong 70 mph tropical storm and they state clearly in the discussion that their estimates are conservative. That is not leaning towards it not becoming a hurricane in any way, shape, or form.

[Hurricaneman]

Punta Cana's pressure is now down to 1004 mb, lower than what the recon is finding further south.

Edit: Levi Cowan beat me to it, lol.

METAR for: MDPC (Punta Cana Intl, --, DR)
Text: MDPC 301300Z 13015G25KT 7000 RA FEW012CB BKN014 OVC070 26/25 Q1004 CB/E/SE/S/N
Temperature: 26.0°C ( 79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.65 inches Hg (1004.0 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.7 m/s) gusting to 29 MPH (25 knots; 12.9 m/s)
Visibility: 4 sm ( 7 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1400 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: RA (moderate rain)

If so it’s right under the CDO and may be ready to intensify once leaving Hispaniola

[DestinHurricane]

this will almost certainly be a hurricane within 24 hours.

Now this is hype, Palm Beach Post isn't.
It is not certain to be a hurricane but the possibility is there, which is why PBP said that. We can't say definitively if it will or won't become a hurricane but the forecast is leaning towards it won't.

What forecast is that exactly? NHC has a strong 70 mph tropical storm and they state clearly in the discussion that their estimates are conservative. That is not leaning towards it not becoming a hurricane in any way, shape, or form.

If they were leaning towards it becoming a hurricane they would make their cone have an H on the map.
But none of this matters until it reforms its center north of the islands. Only then we can start thinking about intensity and track in Bahamas/CONUS.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not seeing any westerly wind reports from Recon so this is already poorly defined.

Just remember ... eddys eddys and more eddys.

just track the overall mass of the system..

we wont know much until tomorrow when the energy reaches the NW side of the islands ... how well it is still intact and how long it takes to recover.

True enough but pointing out that the LLC hasn't even reached Hispaniola and it is poorly defined, at least the LLC NHC and the models are initiating from. Fully expect a reformation north or NW of the coast of Hisp. tomorrow but you have to wonder even then how well it will define itself with this N to S tilt with the MLC.

[AJC3]

Gang, let's not beat the validity of the PB Post headline to death. Move on from that debate. Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

Punta Cana's pressure is now down to 1004 mb, lower than what the recon is finding further south.

Edit: Levi Cowan beat me to it, lol.

METAR for: MDPC (Punta Cana Intl, --, DR)
Text: MDPC 301300Z 13015G25KT 7000 RA FEW012CB BKN014 OVC070 26/25 Q1004 CB/E/SE/S/N
Temperature: 26.0°C ( 79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.65 inches Hg (1004.0 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.7 m/s) gusting to 29 MPH (25 knots; 12.9 m/s)
Visibility: 4 sm ( 7 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1400 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: RA (moderate rain)

If so it’s right under the CDO and may be ready to intensify once leaving Hispaniola

it is moving over land.. not happeneing we have to just wait and see what survives the trek across the island.

Something would have to form well north of the coast line..

[txwatcher91]

I'm not seeing any westerly wind reports from Recon so this is already poorly defined.

Just remember ... eddys eddys and more eddys.

just track the overall mass of the system..

we wont know much until tomorrow when the energy reaches the NW side of the islands ... how well it is still intact and how long it takes to recover.

No, it seems the system is doing exactly what the GFS, para GFS and HWRF have been showing. The southern circulation is dying out and jumping north to where the MLC is, also evidenced by pressure falls in that area. Everything appears right on track.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not seeing any westerly wind reports from Recon so this is already poorly defined.

Just remember ... eddys eddys and more eddys.

just track the overall mass of the system..

we wont know much until tomorrow when the energy reaches the NW side of the islands ... how well it is still intact and how long it takes to recover.

No, it seems the system is doing exactly what the GFS, para GFS and HWRF have been showing. The southern circulation is dying out and jumping north to where the MLC is, also evidenced by pressure falls in that area. Everything appears right on track.

MLC is moving over land.. nothing else needs to be said..

[jaxfladude]

So still too early to say what if any impacts for NE FLORIDA?

Edit Prayers for those impacted

[GCANE]

CoC probably more around 18N and moving north.
Lines up more with ADT / IR Sat and Recon

[Evil Jeremy]

Probably will be a 12-24hr period where it's fairly poorly defined

Welcome to Thursday, same as Wednesday. And Tuesday. And Monday.

[DestinHurricane]

So still too early to say what if any impacts for NE FLORIDA?

Sent from my LG-SP320 using Tapatalk

We will have a better idea once it's past Hispaniola. Until then it's anyone's guess.