ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Not sure if anyone posted it or not but the 06z NAVGEM has a pretty significant shift left from the 00z and looks stronger as well.

https://i.imgur.com/OOGvU4u.gif

that's the 18Z from yesterday and the 00Z

Correct you are...I was obviously up to late watching the Euro come in.

[Evil Jeremy]

Not sure if anyone posted it or not but the 06z NAVGEM has a pretty significant shift left from the 00z and looks stronger as well.

https://i.imgur.com/OOGvU4u.gif

that's the 18Z from yesterday and the 00Z

Indeed that is the 18z and 00z in the archived GIF here, but the 06z did shift back to around the 18z run's placement.

[SouthFLTropics]

Not sure if anyone posted it or not but the 06z NAVGEM has a pretty significant shift left from the 00z and looks stronger as well.

https://i.imgur.com/OOGvU4u.gif

that's the 18Z from yesterday and the 00Z

Indeed that is the 18z and 00z in the archived GIF here, but the 06z did shift back to around the 18z run's placement.

This is the link I should have posted. I think I have it right now. A decent left shift from 00z to 06z.

[Steve]

12Z HRRR's 36 hour run is out. Valid for tomorrow at 8:00pm EDT


Also, NAM 3km resolution has been pulsing the system every few hours. It rarely shows black or white over black, so NAM thinks this is a pretty potent system. 12Z NAM is only out to 4:00pm EDT as of now. We'll see if it wants to nudge left or right from the 6Z which burst across South Florida and went up the peninsula or the 00z which also burst across greater Miami, but the center overall stayed slightly east of the Panhandle. It should finish in the next 20 minutes

[caneseddy]

New NAM shifted west and has a high end TS pretty much landfalling or right off of Miami

Another shift west, even though its the NAM

[SFLcane]

Fish storm or Carolinas based on this tweet from R. Maue

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/128 ... 55136?s=21

[toad strangler]

Fish storm or Carolinas based on this tweet from R. Maue

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/128 ... 55136?s=21

It's a safe play climo track. It's gonna be close.

[otowntiger]

Fish storm or Carolinas based on this tweet from R. Maue

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/128 ... 55136?s=21

Sounds about right. The models may shift back and forth but based on the typical set up the odds are always much greater for a recurve than east coast strike. As someone mentioned earlier it actually takes unusual set up to push storms onto the east coast. Obviously it happens and 'unusual' set-ups occur, its just that they happen much less frequently, hence many more storms recurve than not.

[Jr0d]

Fish storm or Carolinas based on this tweet from R. Maue

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/128 ... 55136?s=21

That is a bit contradictory to what the models are trending this morning.

[pgoss11]

Fish storm or Carolinas based on this tweet from R. Maue

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/128 ... 55136?s=21

That is a bit contradictory to what the models are trending this morning.

I thought so too considering the ridge is stronger than modeled yesterday. Hmmm...

[jfk08c]

11 AM update with a slight shift East, putting it off the coast of Florida just barely. Interesting considering the trend of some of the models this morning.

[toad strangler]

Fish storm or Carolinas based on this tweet from R. Maue

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/128 ... 55136?s=21

That is a bit contradictory to what the models are trending this morning.

Guys like Maue are using meteorology as well to make their statements.

[boca]

I don’t think we will get much out of this because the models are shifting East and we will be on the weak and dry side of the system. That trough will save us again.

[jfk08c]

Looks like UKM, Euro and Canadian are the only remaining models with a Florida landfall. Looking at the tracks, there seems to be some pretty aggressive and abrupt steering when crossing over Hispaniola on the UKM and Euro. Guess time will tell

[Hurricaneman]

I don’t think we will get much out of this because the models are shifting East and we will be on the weak and dry side of the system. That trough will save us again.

Still could be a good blow but I’m thinking the worst impacts could be from The Carolinas to New York/New England heck the PARa GFS shows that and so does the HWRF

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Icon is coming in weaker and SSW of the 06z position. Approaching the Palm Beach/Broward line at 60 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

I don’t think we will get much out of this because the models are shifting East and we will be on the weak and dry side of the system. That trough will save us again.

If you’re looking at real time, that trough is nowhere as strong as the GFS depicting right now...

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON - 06z to 12z comparison

[Nuno]

Fish storm or Carolinas based on this tweet from R. Maue

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/128 ... 55136?s=21

That is a bit contradictory to what the models are trending this morning.

Guys like Maue are using meteorology as well to make their statements.

Had to unfollow him due to the amount of politicizing he does. So annoying.

[chaser1]

I'm just curious whether the EURO, CMC, and NAM are have a track that brings the storm up to S. Florida any bit quicker then the GFS or other "east" leaning models? I'll be curious to see whether the 12Z GFS slows or slightly speeds up bringing Isaias to Miami's latitude. It's possible that any small difference in timing might be some factor in whether the storm might track just far enough to the west prior to turning more NNW. I suppose that if the storm were to more quickly reorganize of the N. coast of Hispaniola, that might cause slightly shorten the track time-line and possibly allow the storm to move a bit more WNW prior to feeling the effect of the eroding ridge to it's north. To the other extreme and possibly more plausible cause of an impact to S. Florida would be if Hispaniola just wrecked Isaias' circulation enough causing a greater delay in reformation, and then having the broader mess continue more WNW as a result of lower level steering. TBH though, it's pretty hard to go against NHC's thinking that this will simply skirt just east of S. Florida. This just so often seems to play out that way.