ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

I'm just saying the NHC's track and intensity suggests hurricane watches might be needed. Their track has the center 20 miles from Palm Beach and some people are acting like they have it 200 miles from Palm Beach.

Here’s the probability of seeing TS force winds. The plume shows the worst staying offshore and over towards Grand Bahama Island right now. Not saying that couldn’t change but the west side is the better side to be on as we saw with Matthew in 2016 and Dorian just last year.

https://i.ibb.co/tq1vyBS/2-E6122-F2-A61-E-4-CE2-86-F9-82593-FCEC39-C.png

The wind-field seems a lot larger than what that graph is depicting.

It might be but it seems that it extends more North and East rather than South and West. We’d still likely see sustained TS winds on the current track here in Eastern Palm Beach County though.

[TheStormExpert]

we also desperately need G-IV data to get and idea of the ridging to the north..

even a slight increase in heights and all the models are back over florida.

Shouldn’t that data already be into this morning’s 06z runs at least?

[Aric Dunn]

we also desperately need G-IV data to get and idea of the ridging to the north..

even a slight increase in heights and all the models are back over florida.

Shouldn’t that data already be into this morning’s 06z runs at least?

The mission is not until this afternoon I believe.. or it was supposed to be anyway

[IsabelaWeather]

Good morning
Has anyone heard from cycloneye?

morning! no... but fwiw, here in PR we've had tons of rain, areas of flooding, 50-60mph gusts, a few mudslides, and about 300k peeps without power

Wow, here in Isabela we have had very tranquil weather and not much rain!

[TheStormExpert]

we also desperately need G-IV data to get and idea of the ridging to the north..

even a slight increase in heights and all the models are back over florida.

Shouldn’t that data already be into this morning’s 06z runs at least?

The mission is not until this afternoon I believe.. or it was supposed to be anyway

What happened to the one last night?

[AutoPenalti]

we also desperately need G-IV data to get and idea of the ridging to the north..

even a slight increase in heights and all the models are back over florida.

Shouldn’t that data already be into this morning’s 06z runs at least?

The mission is not until this afternoon I believe.. or it was supposed to be anyway

Someone mentioned it was no longer on the POD?

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't believe there has been a G-IV mission yet (though I think 2 were on the schedule at some point), nor does there seem to be one scheduled.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't believe there has been a G-IV mission yet (though I think 2 were on the schedule at some point), nor does there seem to be one scheduled.

I sure hope they do.

[MGC]

Quite an impressive satellite presentation....MCL is quite vigorous with center reformation very likely. Should intensify at a steady clip once away from Hispaniola. Good chance of Isaias reaching hurricane intensity in the Bahamas......MGC

[artist]

I don't believe there has been a G-IV mission yet (though I think 2 were on the schedule at some point), nor does there seem to be one scheduled.

I sure hope they do.

Issued yesterdayfor today
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND
THE SYSTEM FOR 31/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 30/1730Z,
AND FOR 31/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 31/0530Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TDR MISSION FOR 31/12Z DEPARTING KLAL
AT 31/08Z.

[GCANE]

50+ to 70 mm/hr rain rates.
That's enough to warm the core to support Cat1 down the road

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't believe there has been a G-IV mission yet (though I think 2 were on the schedule at some point), nor does there seem to be one scheduled.

I sure hope they do.

At this point, it might be too little too late.

If they launch a G-IV mission right now, the data wouldn't get injected into the models until the 00z suite, and we wouldn't see it reflected in the NHC cone until 5am.

18 hours from now, we should have far more clarity as to the future path of Isaias due to having a solidified center (finally) and Isaias having a sustained NW movement than G-IV data would be able to add.

[aspen]

I highly doubt the center of Isaias is still south of DR. Seems like it could be around 19N/69W. New hot towers are starting to fire north of DR as well.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't believe there has been a G-IV mission yet (though I think 2 were on the schedule at some point), nor does there seem to be one scheduled.

I sure hope they do.

At this point, it might be too little too late.

If they launch a G-IV mission right now, the data wouldn't get injected into the models until the 00z suite, and we wouldn't see it reflected in the NHC cone until 5am.

18 hours from now, we should have far more clarity as to the future path of Isaias due to having a solidified center (finally) and Isaias having a sustained NW movement than G-IV data would be able to add.

actually rather important..

even a slight increase in heights would push all models fully onshore florida or even into the gulf. and the converse is true and could not affect the US at all.

[FixySLN]

I sure hope they do.

At this point, it might be too little too late.

If they launch a G-IV mission right now, the data wouldn't get injected into the models until the 00z suite, and we wouldn't see it reflected in the NHC cone until 5am.

18 hours from now, we should have far more clarity as to the future path of Isaias due to having a solidified center (finally) and Isaias having a sustained NW movement than G-IV data would be able to add.

actually rather important..

even a slight increase in heights would push all models fully onshore florida or even into the gulf. and the converse is true and could not affect the US at all.

Sorry, what do you mean by "heights"? Latitude...pressure? Sorry, ya lost me.

[MississippiWx]

Fairly obvious the center is either barely inland or just offshore to the north of Hispaniola. This could definitely become a hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

Left flank low level divergent winds are screaming out the west side of the convection..

would not be surprised to see a eddy pop out of the convection soon.

[b0tzy29]

Hot towers popping back up at the end north of DR. She might have just skirted through. Wowzers.

[eastcoastFL]

Is the convection firing around the NE Tip of DR due to land interaction or is that where people are saying a new circulation may form?

[Mouton]

If the final track is anything like being posted by the NHC now, coup for the GFS which was basically on this course for the past few days.

Looks to me like a front diagonally NE to SW is forming over N. Florida. That has significance as it is gradually moving south. Probably the weak high nudging itself west a tad. Strong zonal flow above 35N but south of their it looks like the atmosphere is dead.

Some dry air ahead so that may limit strong reform after the island, perhaps around 71W 21N. Still moving at a fast clip. Also may inhibit rapid deepening albeit very warm waters. My sense says it passes east of GBI but very hard to predict a path when the storm has not reformed. I am always happy when they are going N before 80W!