ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1541 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:36 am

Blown Away wrote:The stage is set for the EURO, the 00z landfalled in SFL crossed over to west FL coast then turned N. It's kinda on it's own now, will it cave to the GFS?


Euro is going to come slightly further right, with a probably landfall on Broward/Palm Beach. Later GFS runs are going to ever so slightly trend left. In the end we get a compromise between the two solutions which results in a coast scraper. Just my opinion, but that's how I feel it plays out.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1542 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:38 am

Siker wrote:TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59


1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72 Is that not just west of Cape Hatteras with 955 pressure.

What model is that?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1543 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:41 am

OuterBanker wrote:
Siker wrote:TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59


1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72 Is that not just west of Cape Hatteras with 955 pressure.

What model is that?


UK Met. Irene-esque in strength. Cat 1 with pressure in the mid-to-low 950s.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1544 Postby texsn95 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:42 am

What are the chances of this storm basically losing its steering currents and to drift into the GoM similar to what Hanna did?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1545 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:42 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:
Siker wrote:TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59


1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72 Is that not just west of Cape Hatteras with 955 pressure.

What model is that?


UK Met. Irene-esque in strength. Cat 1 with pressure in the mid-to-low 950s.

The UKMET always seems to show lower winds than one would typically expect with certain MSLPs.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1546 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:45 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72 Is that not just west of Cape Hatteras with 955 pressure.

What model is that?


UK Met. Irene-esque in strength. Cat 1 with pressure in the mid-to-low 950s.

The UKMET always seems to show lower winds than one would typically expect with certain MSLPs.


In Eastern NC that is not a stretch at all though. As I mentioned Irene was a Cat 1 at landfall with pressure of 951mb. Isaias is a massive storm and there is likely to be some sort of baroclinic interaction with the approaching cold front which will increase size and spread out pressure gradient. Those numbers are completely reasonable in this particular case.
Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1547 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:45 am

texsn95 wrote:What are the chances of this storm basically losing its steering currents and to drift into the GoM similar to what Hanna did?

Hurricanes following steering currents from upper level highs and troughs. At the moment, that doesn’t seem like a possibility.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1548 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:47 am

Models won't have a good grasp on this until it passes Hispaniola. A reformation of the LLC which is currently happening will also change both tracks & intensity.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1549 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:49 am

12z HWRF appears to be slower, weaker, and slightly further east than 06z while the HWRF-Para is faster, same strength, and further WSW.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1550 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:50 am

GFS Ensemble mean looks closer to Florida
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1551 Postby ronjon » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:54 am

12z CMC esssentially a carbon copy of 00z. Off the SW coast of FL and then north to Tampa as a weak system.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1552 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 am

UKMET close enough that it’s basically an east coast FL hit here in northern Palm Beach County. Canadian IS a South FL landfall. GFS only what? 80-100 miles east? Going to be darn close, potentially, like a Matthew or grazing hit like David if model trends continue
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1553 Postby ronjon » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:58 am

12z NAM into Miami-Ft Laud and N-NW to Lake O.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1554 Postby Beef Stew » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:58 am

texsn95 wrote:What are the chances of this storm basically losing its steering currents and to drift into the GoM similar to what Hanna did?


At this stage, the chances of that are very low. No models are currently suggesting that is a viable or likely outcome.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1555 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:59 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:GFS Ensemble mean looks closer to Florida


Link? I have not seen it out yet.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1556 Postby Ian2401 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:59 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:UKMET close enough that it’s basically an east coast FL hit here in northern Palm Beach County. Canadian IS a South FL landfall. GFS only what? 80-100 miles east? Going to be darn close, potentially, like a Matthew or grazing hit like David if model trends continue

yeah i was confused why no one was talking about the fact that the UKMEt still showed a SEFL landfall (pretty much, maybe a couple miles off shore - impacts the same) so glad you brought it up
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1557 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:02 pm

SFLcane wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:GFS Ensemble mean looks closer to Florida


Link? I have not seen it out yet.


On weathermodels.com

Roughly 1/2 make landfall on the Florida east coast, most as a weak storm.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1558 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:02 pm

OuterBanker wrote:
Siker wrote:TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59


1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72 Is that not just west of Cape Hatteras with 955 pressure.

What model is that?


Ukie brushes Jupiter PBC on that run
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1559 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:11 pm

12z HWRF's trending W once near Florida Coast, just 50 miles off coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1560 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:26 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z HWRF's trending W once near Florida Coast, just 50 miles off coast.


Yep, both HWRF and HWRF-Para shift ever so slightly to the left. I expect a few more minor left shifts of them and the GFS models along with minor right shifts by the Euro. Think we're going to have a coast hugger/gulf stream rider.
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