ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if this misses Florida, there is still a chance that this hits somewhere along the East Coast,

[HurricaneEnzo]

If the final track is anything like being posted by the NHC now, coup for the GFS which was basically on this course for the past few days.

Looks to me like a front diagonally NE to SW is forming over N. Florida. That has significance as it is gradually moving south. Probably the weak high nudging itself west a tad. Strong zonal flow above 35N but south of their it looks like the atmosphere is dead.

Some dry air ahead so that may limit strong reform after the island, perhaps around 71W 21N. Still moving at a fast clip. Also may inhibit rapid deepening albeit very warm waters. My sense says it passes east of GBI but very hard to predict a path when the storm has not reformed. I am always happy when they are going N before 80W!

The NAVGEM was showing a 957mb Hurricane hitting Eastern NC 180hours out. It has also consistently been showing an Eastern NC landfall for a while now, even before the GFS. I wrote it off early on because it is the freaking NAVGEM but if it comes to fruition I'll be mind blown.

[Weatherboy1]

IF the new convection during off along or just to the N of the northern coast of Hispanola is indicative of a new center organizing ... as I said earlier ... I don’t see how intensity forecast isn’t being underdone/too low. Of course it could increase chance of Isaias missing FL to the East too. But no guarantees

[HurricaneEnzo]

IF the new convection during off along or just to the N of the northern coast of Hispanola is indicative of a new center organizing ... as I said earlier ... I don’t see how intensity forecast isn’t being underdone/too low. Of course it could increase chance of Isaias missing FL to the East too. But no guarantees

Looks like that will be the case to me.

[Evil Jeremy]

Something something comma shape, something something about to take off.

[Florida1118]

Why is it moving so fast? Weren’t trade winds supposed to be slow this season?

At this point I wouldn’t loose sleep over this mess as it’ll likely never amount to anything significant. Conditions just aren’t favorable out there even with a passing Kelvin Wave.

Another year, another storm giving a clear reminder of why making statements like this are silly

[HURRICANELONNY]

Even if the center hit east coast S.Fl. There would be little effect on me as all the convection is to the north and east of Isaias. Now if Isaias went to the west coast Fl. I'd get a woopin.

[TheStormExpert]

Why is it moving so fast? Weren’t trade winds supposed to be slow this season?

At this point I wouldn’t loose sleep over this mess as it’ll likely never amount to anything significant. Conditions just aren’t favorable out there even with a passing Kelvin Wave.

Another year, another storm giving a clear reminder of why making statements like this are silly

Quote me all you want, but Isaias has been frustrating to track before yesterday!

[DestinHurricane]

Even if the center hit east coast S.Fl. There would be little effect on me as all the convection is to the north and east of Isaias. Now if Isaias went to the west coast Fl. I'd get a woopin.

Probably will organize better before potential landfall.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Why is it moving so fast? Weren’t trade winds supposed to be slow this season?

At this point I wouldn’t loose sleep over this mess as it’ll likely never amount to anything significant. Conditions just aren’t favorable out there even with a passing Kelvin Wave.

Another year, another storm giving a clear reminder of why making statements like this are silly

Exactly, this thing is so big it doesn't even have to be super strong rather duration of wind & rain will cause enough damage whever it comes ashore (if it does).

[hohnywx]

Even if the center hit east coast S.Fl. There would be little effect on me as all the convection is to the north and east of Isaias. Now if Isaias went to the west coast Fl. I'd get a woopin.

How can you have been a member here for 17 years and make such a statement? The storm will be entering one of the most prime areas for development in the basin. It will likely become better organized and take a more normal shape of a strong system.

[Jr0d]

Exactly, this thing is so big it doesn't even have to be super strong rather duration of wind & rain will cause enough damage whever it comes ashore (if it does).

Plus surge and erosion...especially if it slows as it approaches the U.S. East Coast.

[Sanibel]

That hazy look is not a good sign...All the earmarks of one that sneaks up on you...

[tiger_deF]

Outflow is significantly improved from 12 hours ago, almost looks like another storm

[Nimbus]

we also desperately need G-IV data to get and idea of the ridging to the north..

even a slight increase in heights and all the models are back over florida.

Shouldn’t that data already be into this morning’s 06z runs at least?

The mission is not until this afternoon I believe.. or it was supposed to be anyway

The core of the system is north of Hispaniola now undisrupted, so they will have that in the 18Z model runs along with the ridging potential.

[wxman57]

Been busy with the Isaias advisory for the past 6 hours, did I miss anything here? Looks like the plane found a 50kt open wave. That's no well-defined LLC south of the DR. However the center will reform under the convection soon. With the models now focusing on the northern part of the wave, they will do a better job. It's quite possible that the center tracks far enough off the coast of Florida such that TS winds miss the coast. It still looks like the storm will be experiencing SW wind shear and dry air then, so heaviest squalls should be east of the track. After Florida, it moves with the upper flow, allowing it to strengthen. Could well be a hurricane when it passes the OBX on Monday. Beyond then, it runs into the SW-NE jet stream and begins a transition to a larger ET storm. Look for NHC track to shift a bit farther east of FL on future advisories, though they may elect not to move it so residents don't stop preparing. On to next advisory...

[Kazmit]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis_09L_202007301625_lat17.7-lon291.5.jpg

Something something comma shape, something something about to take off.

Looks like the larger version of Dorian in the same area.

[Aric Dunn]

like it or not.. this is what we have currently.

[wxman57]

Center may already be reforming north of the eastern DR. This is no Dorian, by the way. It's not particularly large now, either. I measure only 200 miles across. Smaller than average.

[St0rmTh0r]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis_09L_202007301625_lat17.7-lon291.5.jpg

Something something comma shape, something something about to take off.

Looks like the larger version of Dorian in the same area.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200730/aa26a433-650e-44d6-a13c-511f58810efd.jpg

So that's an open wave....