wxman57 wrote:Been busy with the Isaias advisory for the past 6 hours, did I miss anything here? Looks like the plane found a 50kt open wave. That's no well-defined LLC south of the DR. However the center will reform under the convection soon. With the models now focusing on the northern part of the wave, they will do a better job. It's quite possible that the center tracks far enough off the coast of Florida such that TS winds miss the coast. It still looks like the storm will be experiencing SW wind shear and dry air then, so heaviest squalls should be east of the track. After Florida, it moves with the upper flow, allowing it to strengthen. Could well be a hurricane when it passes the OBX on Monday. Beyond then, it runs into the SW-NE jet stream and begins a transition to a larger ET storm. Look for NHC track to shift a bit farther east of FL on future advisories, though they may elect not to move it so residents don't stop preparing. On to next advisory...
Isaias seems to be holding its own for now in regard with dry air. With it's large envelope I'm not so sure it'll be as big of a problem closer to the coast.