ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1561 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:28 pm

HMON was starting to run on TT but it failed to takeoff. Stuck at zero.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1562 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:30 pm

GFS 12z Ensembles definitely trended left. Most are weaker returns.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1563 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:32 pm

Real Matthew flashbacks now. Fortunately not expected to become a major hurricane though.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1564 Postby CDO62 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:47 pm

12Z Euro is rolling. This should be interesting.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1565 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:47 pm

Ridge stronger on 12Z Euro
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1566 Postby fci » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:50 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:CMC is a right shift from last nights 00z run. Slightly, and I mean ever so slightly, stronger. Passes South of the fork in the road (Andros) and hits South Dade/Upper Keys. If I was a betting man I'd place my bet on a Florida coast scraper from Boca to Cape Canaveral and then on to the outer banks.

Agreed, not too dissimilar from Matthew, Dorian and others that end up about 50-100 miles off of the coast (PBC) and we are on the weaker west side. Some gusts and spits of rain. That's fine with me.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1567 Postby fci » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:51 pm

texsn95 wrote:What are the chances of this storm basically losing its steering currents and to drift into the GoM similar to what Hanna did?

These things could happen but the models have been pretty consistent keeping it East of the GOM and lately East of Florida.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1568 Postby fci » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:52 pm

ronjon wrote:12z NAM into Miami-Ft Laud and N-NW to Lake O.

Seems like NAM is always plowing a storm into Miami.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1569 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:53 pm

Euro at 24hrs

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1570 Postby Camerooski » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:55 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Euro at 24hrs

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200730/43b5afd9f368c50d5ac087a384c2c3dc.jpg


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Ridge looks stronger a bit SW of yesterday's run
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1571 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:57 pm

fci wrote:
ronjon wrote:12z NAM into Miami-Ft Laud and N-NW to Lake O.

Seems like NAM is always plowing a storm into Miami.

the gfs and all the products that run off it do the same..fortunately, their accuracy rate is low
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1572 Postby kevin » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:01 pm

Euro 12z at 48hrs, 990 mbar

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Last edited by kevin on Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1573 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:02 pm

982 mb on the Euro at hour 35, Moving through the Bahamas just east of Andros Island.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1574 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:02 pm

Image
12z EURO... 48 hours...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1575 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:04 pm

Pretty much right on with the GFS 48 hours out.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1576 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:05 pm

Next frame on Euro looks like it could be coast scraper. Euro coming to meet the others?
Last edited by toad strangler on Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1577 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:05 pm

Euro ESE of 06z.

Ridge stronger. Trough stronger as well.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1578 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:06 pm

The Euro has moved east of its previous runs, up the eastern seaboard seems to be the consensus
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1579 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:07 pm

Right over Freeport.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1580 Postby caneseddy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:07 pm

toad strangler wrote:Next frame on Euro looks like it could be coast scraper. Euro coming to meet the others?


Indeed does look like a coast scraper
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