ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1601 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:28 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Is this TS or Cat1??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200730/a144a40267c6495cbab731299f96f01f.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Likely TS.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1602 Postby Bhuggs » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:28 pm

SFLcane wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Cataegis96 wrote:Yep much closer to GFS now in terms of intensity and track. Think we are starting to see the two models come together. Likely time to put up hurricane warnings in the northern Bahamas and tropical storm warnings for Florida. Euro weakens it some at hour 72, will be interesting to see where it goes from here. Should start moving due north after skirting the Space Coast.


Yes, those watches and warmings will be coming at 5 p.m.


Warnings out of caution sure but the reality is even if the euro tracks pans out the worst of the hurricane remains out over the Bahamas. Mathew in FL was a gentle breeze rainy day.



1.4 billion dollar gentle breeze in FL. There is a lot more to the state than south Florida.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1603 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:29 pm

12z Euro landfall eastern NC @ 974mb
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1604 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:32 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:12z Euro landfall eastern NC @ 974mb


Exits at delmarva then goes into Long Island on Wednesday.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1605 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:33 pm

Exactly what the northern Bahamas do not needs, wind gusts over 100 mph as forecasted by the Euro.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1606 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:35 pm

Bhuggs wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Yes, those watches and warmings will be coming at 5 p.m.


Warnings out of caution sure but the reality is even if the euro tracks pans out the worst of the hurricane remains out over the Bahamas. Mathew in FL was a gentle breeze rainy day.



1.4 billion dollar gentle breeze in FL. There is a lot more to the state than south Florida.


I was in Jacksonville for Matthew. Was not fun. Could have been a lot worse than it ended up being, but it wasn't a gentle breeze.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1607 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:37 pm

NDG wrote:HR Euro, not quite makes landfall in the Gold Coast, but this probably the strongest the Euro has Isaias to become prior to reaching FL.

https://i.imgur.com/Tn0QOt4.gif

But why does it suddenly weaken Isaias from 983mb to 993mb?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1608 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:38 pm

NDG wrote:Exactly what the northern Bahamas do not needs, wind gusts over 100 mph as forecasted by the Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/4l90HD5.gif

I’d much rather take a bullet for them as folks over there are slowly returning to somewhat normal life. :cry:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1609 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:38 pm

NDG wrote:Exactly what the northern Bahamas do not needs, wind gusts over 100 mph as forecasted by the Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/4l90HD5.gif


Not good at all. :(
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1610 Postby jaxfladude » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:38 pm

I misread quoted post...
Last edited by jaxfladude on Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1611 Postby cp79 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:38 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:HR Euro, not quite makes landfall in the Gold Coast, but this probably the strongest the Euro has Isaias to become prior to reaching FL.

https://i.imgur.com/Tn0QOt4.gif

But why does it suddenly weaken Isaias from 983mb to 993mb?


Gonna be a lot of shear off the Florida coast this weekend.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1612 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:39 pm

Models converging on a path so many hurricanes and storms have taken. That is, just off the coast of Florida, far enough away that Florida is largely spared but the Bahamas just can’t catch a break.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1613 Postby ava_ati » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:39 pm

For what it's worth UKMET has almost the exact same track as EURO, little less severe over the Bahamas
Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1614 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:40 pm

SFLcane wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Cataegis96 wrote:Yep much closer to GFS now in terms of intensity and track. Think we are starting to see the two models come together. Likely time to put up hurricane warnings in the northern Bahamas and tropical storm warnings for Florida. Euro weakens it some at hour 72, will be interesting to see where it goes from here. Should start moving due north after skirting the Space Coast.


Yes, those watches and warmings will be coming at 5 p.m.


Warnings out of caution sure but the reality is even if the euro tracks pans out the worst of the hurricane remains out over the Bahamas. Mathew in FL was a gentle breeze rainy day.

Matthew at least had sustained TS force winds here in Coastal Palm Beach County. Dorian just had TS Wind Gusts mostly along the immediate coast and at Juno Beach Pier.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1615 Postby LCfromFL » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:41 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Bhuggs wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Warnings out of caution sure but the reality is even if the euro tracks pans out the worst of the hurricane remains out over the Bahamas. Mathew in FL was a gentle breeze rainy day.



1.4 billion dollar gentle breeze in FL. There is a lot more to the state than south Florida.


I was in Jacksonville for Matthew. Was not fun. Could have been a lot worse than it ended up being, but it wasn't a gentle breeze.


We lost power for nearly a week with Matthew.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1616 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:42 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Bhuggs wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Warnings out of caution sure but the reality is even if the euro tracks pans out the worst of the hurricane remains out over the Bahamas. Mathew in FL was a gentle breeze rainy day.



1.4 billion dollar gentle breeze in FL. There is a lot more to the state than south Florida.


I was in Jacksonville for Matthew. Was not fun. Could have been a lot worse than it ended up being, but it wasn't a gentle breeze.


Storm surge and damage from Matthew in Saint Augustine. It definitely was a very close call, a hard brush from.him here in Northeast Florida.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1617 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:42 pm

Found the source of the Hurricane Repellent that’s been saving SE Florida the past four years!

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1618 Postby boca » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:43 pm

It’s a non event for us but not for our Bahamian friends.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1619 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:48 pm

I'd love to say the "repellant" is going to work again. But with most of these models, let's be honest. We're only talking about missing the coast in PB/Martin County by 10-80 miles or so, depending on which model you mean. UKMET, Euro might as well be a hit, and Canadian is a hit up the spine of FL. So, I'm certainly not ruling out a David-style landfall - and I don't think anyone else should either barring a big shift east overnight in modelling
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1620 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:50 pm

36 hours before we start wobble-watching.
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