ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Does a faster storm mean more west since it will beat the trough?

[Aric Dunn]

Does a faster storm mean more west since it will beat the trough?

yes..

[Blown Away]

The mid level circulation has been riding along the northern coast of Hispaniola, just like the Euro was forecasting it to do. This thing will take off as soon as it moves away from Hispaniola later tonight. Isaias chances of becoming a hurricane over the Bahamas is going up by the minute. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/TEAibx5.gif

Agree, that is the MLC, would it be tilted N-S?

[ava_ati]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1288913384734433281

[NFLnut]

I decided years ago to just embrace it!!! I still get Marcia Marcia Marcia all the time when I have to give my name. Lol

I had a co-worker named Adrienne. Yes .. she too hears it ("Yo ..") every day (yes .. sometimes, even from me).

[GCANE]

Yes- strong high pressure. That big blob in the tail getting bigger?

Watching it closely.
Appears to have a slight warm-core feature on IR and Mid-WV next to rotating hot towers.

[NFLnut]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1288911865792389120

Assuming that may nudge the track a tiny bit east? No?

[LCfromFL]

Hope these latest models hold pretty close. My niece is getting married Saturday at 530 in the Orlando area. They planned an outdoor garden wedding for Saturday (I know .. I know) but these poor kids were supposed to get married back in May and decided to postpone for 2+ months because of this stupid Covid nonsense. Then .. THIS storm had to evolve and come straight toward FL just in time .. . I really hope they have just enough of a window for a nice event (they have an indoor backup but I want them to have it outside just because of all of their hardship). The reception, fortunately, was always planned for indoors.

Before this storm evolved we joked about pestilence, calamity, disease (,alien invasion?) wouldn't keep them apart. Guess we shouldn't have joked ..

My daughter's wedding took place last year (9/1) outside. We had a plan for sunny weather. We had a plan for rain. We did NOT have a plan for frigging major hurricane Dorian trying to crash the party! Thankfully, he turned away and we had a breezy but sunny day. Congratulations to your niece! <3

[caneseddy]

The mid level circulation has been riding along the northern coast of Hispaniola, just like the Euro was forecasting it to do. This thing will take off as soon as it moves away from Hispaniola later tonight. Isaias chances of becoming a hurricane over the Bahamas is going up by the minute. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/TEAibx5.gif

Amazing what 24 hours could do. Yesterday at this same time posters were calling for the demise of this storm and that it had run out out of time, etc. and look at it now. It's getting that look slowly but surely.

[SouthFLTropics]

https://i.imgur.com/dhtqlo1.gif
LLC feature riding the N coast @19.5N/70W... Looks like Isaias is moving faster, supposed to pass 71.4 at 8pm, might be sooner?

Timing is EVERYTHING HERE. A faster storm may bring it closer to the coast because it will beat the trough that is supposed to weaken the ridge. The next 12 hours are CRITICAL in determining the future track and intensity of Isaias.

[Hammy]

Center is definitely north of Hispaniola now--low cloud motion confirms this as most of the flow is out of the WNW or W.

[Evenstar]

I decided years ago to just embrace it!!! I still get Marcia Marcia Marcia all the time when I have to give my name. Lol

I had a co-worker named Adrienne. Yes .. she too hears it ("Yo ..") every day (yes .. sometimes, even from me).

My friends from the 80's think it's funny to call me Lisa Lisa and Cult Jam.

But what I enjoy most, at the moment, is how many fellow female weather nuts are in here watching, learning and contributing.
I hereby dub us...The Storm Sisters!

[abk_0710]

If the ridge is not as strong as forecasted, what would be the furthest west this could go?

[chris_fit]

If the ridge is not as strong as forecasted, what would be the furthest west this could go?

Ridge Stronger = More West
Ridge Weaker = More East/North

[alan1961]

If you animate a close up of the storm you can see the centre emerge of the coast of DR
and skirt along the north where i have marked.

[Aric Dunn]

If you animate a close up of the storm you can see the centre emerge of the coast of DR
and skirt along the north where i have marked.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200730/isasias.jpg

all in the mid levels..

east winds are shooting out the west side if the convection all day.. cant have a closed surface circ with east winds blowing through it.

[Aric Dunn]

If the ridge is not as strong as forecasted, what would be the furthest west this could go?

Ridge Stronger = More West
Ridge Weaker = More East/North

it could also move faster in the short term which would move the turn farther west.

only needs to be a few hours of faster motion to push every model into florida before the ridge breaks down.

[Hurricaneman]

If you animate a close up of the storm you can see the centre emerge of the coast of DR
and skirt along the north where i have marked.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200730/isasias.jpg

all in the mid levels..

east winds are shooting out the west side if the convection all day.. cant have a closed surface circ with east winds blowing through it.

There is no LLC, this is a wave not a tropical storm but should reform a LLC around that MLC

[bob rulz]

A likely classifiable borderline TS just off the coast of Africa in late July, immediately following one of the most vigorous tropical waves I've ever seen...this does not bode well for the peak of the season.

[jlauderdal]

If the ridge is not as strong as forecasted, what would be the furthest west this could go?

Ridge Stronger = More West
Ridge Weaker = More East/North

it could also move faster in the short term which would move the turn farther west.

only needs to be a few hours of faster motion to push every model into florida before the ridge breaks down.

15 miles an hour avg would be approx 3 hrs to bring it onshore dade county or keys based on the tangent