ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[gatorcane]

I'd love to say the "repellant" is going to work again. But with most of these models, let's be honest. We're only talking about missing the coast in PB/Martin County by 10-80 miles or so, depending on which model you mean. UKMET, Euro might as well be a hit, and Canadian is a hit up the spine of FL. So, I'm certainly not ruling out a David-style landfall - and I don't think anyone else should either barring a big shift east overnight in modelling

True but judging by how well the Isaias is doing with Hispaniola, along with possible center now north of the island along the coast, I think the models could easily shift more east than west since a stronger storms mean more poleward as it feels the weakness.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd love to say the "repellant" is going to work again. But with most of these models, let's be honest. We're only talking about missing the coast in PB/Martin County by 10-80 miles or so, depending on which model you mean. UKMET, Euro might as well be a hit, and Canadian is a hit up the spine of FL. So, I'm certainly not ruling out a David-style landfall - and I don't think anyone else should either barring a big shift east overnight in modelling

It’s also the angle of approach and little wobbles that’ll determine the outcome. Right now most models show a Matthew-like track through the Bahamas then paralleling the FL east Coast before threatening the North Carolina cost and Outer Banks.

[SFLcane]

I'd love to say the "repellant" is going to work again. But with most of these models, let's be honest. We're only talking about missing the coast in PB/Martin County by 10-80 miles or so, depending on which model you mean. UKMET, Euro might as well be a hit, and Canadian is a hit up the spine of FL. So, I'm certainly not ruling out a David-style landfall - and I don't think anyone else should either barring a big shift east overnight in modelling

True but judging by how well the Isaias is doing with Hispaniola, along with possible center now north of the island along the coast, I think the models could easily shift more east than west since a stronger storms mean more poleward as it feels the weakness.

This!

[TheStormExpert]

I'd love to say the "repellant" is going to work again. But with most of these models, let's be honest. We're only talking about missing the coast in PB/Martin County by 10-80 miles or so, depending on which model you mean. UKMET, Euro might as well be a hit, and Canadian is a hit up the spine of FL. So, I'm certainly not ruling out a David-style landfall - and I don't think anyone else should either barring a big shift east overnight in modelling

True but judging by how well the Isaias is doing with Hispaniola, along with possible center now north of the island along the coast, I think the models could easily shift more east than west since a stronger storms mean more poleward as it feels the weakness.

True but the weakness is over the MS Valley and not directly over the NE U.S. as the Bermuda High is what tries to shove it NW towards the SE U.S. and the Carolinas.

[Emmett_Brown]

Model shifts are possible as new center reforms; looks like the storm is still moving pretty fast, so that could also impact the point where the storm turns.

[NDG]

HR Euro, not quite makes landfall in the Gold Coast, but this probably the strongest the Euro has Isaias to become prior to reaching FL.

https://i.imgur.com/Tn0QOt4.gif

But why does it suddenly weaken Isaias from 983mb to 993mb?

Probably because when it starts encountering the SW shear, but I highly doubt it will, I think it will push the shear axis out of its way with the trough remaining further west.

[NDG]

Model shifts are possible as new center reforms; looks like the storm is still moving pretty fast, so that could also impact the point where the storm turns.

I don't think so, the models have doing a good job with forecasting its mid level vorticity since last night which is what the LLC is following.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Close enough though in whichh we wilĺ see very significant impacts along the Florida East Coast and points north up.the U.S. East Coast.

Busy times ahead the next few days here.

Worse/better weather for us here in NE Fla/SE GA or about the same thoughts as forecast as of this am? I know things change for good/worse...keep up the good work....which storm /hurricane effect are most compareable if any?

As it stands now, Jax metro will remain on the weaker side of the storm, but Isaias will probably get close enough to give some rain and impacts of some winds to possibly to TS force with higher gusts as it appears starting Sunday afternoon and into the evening before it moves farther up the coast on Monday toward the Carolina coast.

However, I point out that continue to monitor the situation this weekend just in case things changes for the worse. I t is expected to encounter shear later this weekend, which should keep the worst of the weather to stay off shore of here hopefully.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Euro ensemble mean is pretty close to the operational through 60 hours.

Pretty good consensus I think.

[Hd444]

Hd44 right again. Stormup yo the cost on ecmwf

[WeatherEmperor]

Does anybody have the updated 18z TVCN??


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[TheStormExpert]

Does anybody have the updated 18z TVCN??


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Yep.

[NDG]

TVCN moved back east 10-20 miles, looking better for FL to not get a direct hit from Isaias.

[Beachside]

Help a newbie out.... what does TVCN stand for?

TIA

[SFLcane]

Help a newbie out.... what does TVCN stand for?

TIA

Consensus of all the guidance.

[psyclone]

:uarrow: TVCN moved back east 10-20 miles, looking better for FL to not get a direct hit from Isaias.

It's a continuation of a long established trend. momentum over the past 24 hours has been eastward and it has been substantial. If it continues..even at a more modest pace, over the next day this will be another system missing to the east. But...the trend could always reverse. recall Matthew at one point was expected to pass east of Abaco...and then westward adjustments commenced and the rest was history.

[otowntiger]

Does anybody have the updated 18z TVCN??


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Yep.

https://i.ibb.co/sbpYdMh/BC9-F01-F2-7-D95-4026-8206-87606-C38-DB91.png

those tracks are tightening up and seemingly further off the Florida coast. Notice those all show the center of the storm inland on Hispaniola but I believe the center appears to have reformed to the northeast- so expect the models to be further East by about that same distance- 50-100 miles or so.

[chris_fit]

Help a newbie out.... what does TVCN stand for?

TIA

Good page for what each model is...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/mcclurewx/status/12 ... 69408?s=21

[Mouton]

Latest models kick up the intensity quite a bit.

Concerning the GFS is moving west. Looks like circa 79W on recent run near Jax. Another 1 deg jog to west on it and I will need dig out the shutters on east side of home.

Sat looks like the island split it up a bit with a lot of energy to the south of it now. Open wave?? Curious what the 5PM readings will read. Looking to reform around 20N 71W. Movement still to NW. Pluses still show dry air ahead with west side shear. Negatives, very warm water ahead.