ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1681 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:THE NAM slightly east because the Low/trough over Kentucky is faster and farther east.


If that nam is right you bet SFL will be under hurricane watches.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1682 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:36 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:THE NAM slightly east because the Low/trough over Kentucky is faster and farther east.


If that nam is right you bet SFL will be under hurricane watches.


its the NAM. if they go off anything they would go off the Euro which is similar to the NAM. :P
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1683 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:THE NAM slightly east because the Low/trough over Kentucky is faster and farther east.


If that nam is right you bet SFL will be under hurricane watches.


its the NAM. if they go off anything they would go off the Euro which is similar to the NAM. :P

My support for NAM is the equivalent of supporting ICON pre-Dorian. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1684 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:02 pm

Too much model bandwagon here. Lol!
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1685 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:05 pm

ICON with another east shift
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1686 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:24 pm

So does the Happy Hour GFS upcoming in 10 minutes have anything up its sleeve?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1687 Postby otowntiger » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:So does the Happy Hour GFS upcoming in 10 minutes have anything up its sleeve?
yes, more east shifts!
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1688 Postby Lance » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:So does the Happy Hour GFS upcoming in 10 minutes have anything up its sleeve?


Shift west (just to make heads explode...) No idea, but it's gonna be interesting few days...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1689 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:So does the Happy Hour GFS upcoming in 10 minutes have anything up its sleeve?



Hmm? Will it goes west or East? I will say East
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1690 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:35 pm

Is anybody else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits taking forever to load frames?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1691 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:38 pm

Hammy wrote:Is anybody else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits taking forever to load frames?


Yes that’s been going on for me for days.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1692 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:38 pm

Hammy wrote:Is anybody else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits taking forever to load frames?


Yes it's been that way for me for several months.

Anyway, looks like the 18Z GFS has slightly more ridging out through 18 hours so far.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1693 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:40 pm

18z GFS initialized the center position correctly. That means we may put more weight on it.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1694 Postby cp79 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:40 pm

18z GFS through 18 hours...looks same as before but you can see the alley setting up for the turn.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1695 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:48 pm

supercane4867 wrote:18z GFS initialized the center position correctly. That means we may put more weight on it.


And yet it's the exact same as the previous run through 48 hours. Guess the models did alright with the center reformation (which they had been showing for the last day or so).
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1696 Postby MJGarrison » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:48 pm

GFS in nearly the exact same position after 48 hours


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1697 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:49 pm

No change over 12z through 54hrs on 18z GFS. Off the E FL coast by a margin large enough to keep true Tropical Storm conditions off the coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1698 Postby cp79 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:50 pm

No change from GFS.
Looking better for Fla for now per the GFS. We’ll see
If others follow course but I do think the models are nailing this down.
Last edited by cp79 on Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1699 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:51 pm

Tight consensus from 18z.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1700 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:21 pm

Seeing the Euro cave to the others at 12z convinced me that this will be another classic just off the coast re-curve as far as FL is concerned.. 18z GFS cemented it in my mind.
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