ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[otowntiger]

Seeing the Euro cave to the others at 12z convinced me that this will be another classic just off the coast re-curve as far as FL is concerned.. 18z GFS cemented it in my mind.

. Agreed. Confidence is clearly growing that Florida will be good. I’m beginning to think that it may be far enough from us that our weather could be nice due to subsidence. We’ll see.

[toad strangler]

Seeing the Euro cave to the others at 12z convinced me that this will be another classic just off the coast re-curve as far as FL is concerned.. 18z GFS cemented it in my mind.

. Agreed. Confidence is clearly growing that Florida will be good. I’m beginning to think that it may be far enough from us that our weather could be nice due to subsidence. We’ll see.

That would be called "Sucking Cirrus"

I'll still be watching 00z because a true center hasn't stabilized yet.

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS ensembles look about the same through 48 hours. A few members still show a landfall somewhere on the east coast of Florida.

[chaser1]

Seeing the Euro cave to the others at 12z convinced me that this will be another classic just off the coast re-curve as far as FL is concerned.. 18z GFS cemented it in my mind.

. Agreed. Confidence is clearly growing that Florida will be good. I’m beginning to think that it may be far enough from us that our weather could be nice due to subsidence. We’ll see.

That would be called "Sucking Cirrus"

I'll still be watching 00z because a true center hasn't stabilized yet.

That or, Welcome Home Uncle SAL!!

[artist]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1288933712533639168

[blp]

HWRF big shifts west last 4 runs.

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/cc6fddc1-1cdb-4be5-8c0f-44c5390a05df

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF has a naked swirl into Florida.

[cp79]

HWRF big shifts west last 4 runs.

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/cc6fddc1-1cdb-4be5-8c0f-44c5390a05df

It nearly kills it. Shear and dry air gonna suck the energy out of it. Local weatherman in Tampa said at 6pm he thinks it could get ripped apart as it closes in on the state. Euro called for this yesterday and CMC called for it earlier today.

[Camerooski]

18z HWRF has a naked swirl into Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/a3RW2ny.png

Well that was unexpected, definitely still a possibility. Also, it shows how the weaker the storm, the further west it will go.

[aspen]

18z HWRF has a naked swirl into Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/a3RW2ny.png

I don’t think that is very likely, at least not something that extreme — an extremely sheared and lopsided system plowing straight into FL with convection offset by over 100 miles. The quicker Isaias gets an inner core together, the quicker it can intensify in the short term and make it so that it’ll go further east instead of west.

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF shifts westward a bit just off SFL.

[Aric Dunn]

The shear also has a lot to do with the turn. the ridging itself looks strong enough to keep it moving to probably middle of the state. But the shear , as you know, can force the center to try and stay with it. So if the shear is lighter throughout then a more left track is likely.

[supercane4867]

18z HMON hurricane into NC

[Aric Dunn]

18z HMON hurricane into NC

https://i.imgur.com/gyEtnkP.png

HMON also heavily sheared as it approaches florida. helping to turn it..

[HurricaneFrances04]

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF parallel run has a much stronger storm staying offshore of Florida.

[chaser1]

So, a little clarity here. There is no recon flight tonight? And, no Gulfstream mission planned either?

[chris_fit]

18z European anyone?

[SFLcane]

18z European anyone?

Yep, its rolling. So far about the same. Will post pic soon

[SFLcane]

18z Euro seems a bit westward.