ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I wouldn’t at all be surprised if this attained cat 2 status by Sunday before running into shear on Monday. Like they said on the weather channel, the water is incredibly warm

[TheStormExpert]

Considering how far ahead it is of models and NHC track right now, a FL landfall is not completely off the table yet. If the llc forms under that mlc then it will also be south of guidance and moving west. Please do not call an all clear for Florida.

A Florida landfall is definitely not off the table though I’d say the chances are diminishing quickly.

[aspen]

I think I would be a little more concerned about this if I lived on the coast from VA to New England. This has the potential to race right up the coast as a hurricane. The water is warm enough to support a strong hurricane right up to Long Island. People in FL are used to the threat and are aware of what to do...the others...not as much, and nobody is talking about that scenario yet...some are starting to.

I’m definitely keeping an eye on Isaias if it tries to run into Connecticut. Fay was a good way to practice getting all of my outdoor/patio items secured or put away in the event of TS-force winds. However, when it comes to full-scale preparation, I’m going to wait until Saturday or Sunday, when we’ll have a better idea of its track and future intensity. That’s when it’ll get over the Gulf Stream and maybe trying to intensify some more.

[ConvergenceZone]

If there is an llc under that MLC.. it is just about back offshore.. maybe another hours or so.. pretty decently ahead of all the models.

https://i.ibb.co/rG96fq6/41414144.gif

I think this may explode overnight and surprise lots of people

[Syx6sic]

So...what happened to the recon scheduled for 5:40?

I second this. Some recon in this would be really nice right now to see if an LLC has formed.

From what I heard on TWC is they are waiting to fly till it’s safe because of the mountains

[SFLcane]

If there is an llc under that MLC.. it is just about back offshore.. maybe another hours or so.. pretty decently ahead of all the models.

https://i.ibb.co/rG96fq6/41414144.gif

Hi Aric, are you suggesting models are coming back westward because of this?

[Weatherboy1]

Pretty soon it’s going to be time to commence wobble watching here in South FL. It’s going to be all about where the turn more NW commences and/or angle of approach to the coast (unless we get some kind of dramatic easterly shift in the models overnight, therefore ensuring a coastal grazing is all but impossible)

[Aric Dunn]

If there is an llc under that MLC.. it is just about back offshore.. maybe another hours or so.. pretty decently ahead of all the models.

https://i.ibb.co/rG96fq6/41414144.gif

Hi Aric, are you suggesting models are coming back westward because of this?

any further progression to the west faster would lead to west shifts.

[Evil Jeremy]

Bahamas upgraded the TS Warning for the Northern islands to a Hurricane Warning. I was shocked that watches weren't issued at 5, and now they just upped the Warning level. This is the very last thing they need, not just because they are still recovering from Dorian, but because this is all but sure to exacerbate the virus.

[ozonepete]

Very deep convection with the west to east oriented band. Coastline effect?

https://i.imgur.com/apAjUVK.jpg

Yes, highly likely that is a local orographic effect. The high moisture content west-northwest to northwest winds are blocked from going any further south by the mountains so they veer eastward but still get lifted to cause strong convection.

[curtadams]

If there is an llc under that MLC.. it is just about back offshore.. maybe another hours or so.. pretty decently ahead of all the models.

https://i.ibb.co/rG96fq6/41414144.gif

The MLC swirl is easily visible just N of the central Hispaniola coast. The LLC (such as it is) will be SW of there, still on land, since there's some southwesterly shear from the upper anticyclone left S of Hispaniola. The LLC is probably really broad based on the low but similar pressures all over the DR today. The big outburst over the east is disrupting the structure by being far away; might be orographic lift from the intake going over the mountains there. I expect there will be a big broad low emerging more or less on the NHC track.

[DestinHurricane]

If there is an llc under that MLC.. it is just about back offshore.. maybe another hours or so.. pretty decently ahead of all the models.

https://i.ibb.co/rG96fq6/41414144.gif

Hi Aric, are you suggesting models are coming back westward because of this?

any further progression to the west faster would lead to west shifts.

Not only is it ahead of forecasts, it is also south of forecast track and heading barley north of west. I would expect some west shifts unless it slows down and starts gaining latitude quickly.

[weathaguyry]

I am very nervous about this here on the South Shore of Long Island. My entire town is only about 3 feet above sea level in the back Bay area, so things could get very scary if the core comes over us during high tide. On top of that, the full moon is on the 3rd, so tides will be near their highest possible levels all along the coast when the storm passes by.

[SFLcane]

Hi Aric, are you suggesting models are coming back westward because of this?

any further progression to the west faster would lead to west shifts.

Not only is it ahead of forecasts, it is also south of forecast track and heading barley north of west. I would expect some west shifts unless it slows down and starts gaining latitude quickly.

We shall see what 00z and 06z models look like overnight.

[Ian2401]

Hi Aric, are you suggesting models are coming back westward because of this?

any further progression to the west faster would lead to west shifts.

Not only is it ahead of forecasts, it is also south of forecast track and heading barley north of west. I would expect some west shifts unless it slows down and starts gaining latitude quickly.

Do you have a map or something overlaying the forecast points? curious where youre getting this from

[tolakram]

Geocolor view

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=1220.8807373046875&y=1020.7840881347656

[pgoss11]

After watching Levi’s video there may be reason for concern here in New England depending on how the jet aligns with the storm. Could be an intensifying hurricane coming up the coast or possibly out to sea. Some nail biting in the days ahead. Most people here have never experienced a hurricane and that can be a dangerous scenario.

[Ian2401]

recon just took off

[emeraldislenc]

Getting more concerned here in NC. I think by Friday we will have a better idea what will happen. It looks like I'm 96 hours it could be very close to my location,

[chaser1]

I am very nervous about this here on the South Shore of Long Island. My entire town is only about 3 feet above sea level in the back Bay area, so things could get very scary if the core comes over us during high tide. On top of that, the full moon is on the 3rd, so tides will be near their highest possible levels all along the coast when the storm passes by.

Are you out east in Nassau County? I think that beyond the Carolina coastline, eastern Long Island stands to be at greatest risk of the center making landfall or at least close by. Luckily that's a few days off but once this storms clears the Bahamas and Florida coastline, much attention will become more focused on the storms future path.