ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SFLcane]

18z EPS just offshore SFL quite a few inland.

[MetroMike]

http://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1289003072384045062?s=20

Surprised the NHC is basically discounting the Euro solutions, hence west half of Florida peninsula out of cone as of this evening.

[cp79]

http://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1289003072384045062?s=20

Surprised the NHC is basically discounting the Euro solutions, hence west half of Florida peninsula out of cone as of this evening.

Yup. Even our meteorologist here in Tampa said it’s going to be clear and sunny on Sunday and we have nothing to worry about with Isaiais.

[Blown Away]

18z EPS just offshore SFL quite a few inland.

https://iili.io/d5rczJ.png

Can you compare the 12z vs 18z? Some low pressures land falling In Dade County now.

[psyclone]

http://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1289003072384045062?s=20

Surprised the NHC is basically discounting the Euro solutions, hence west half of Florida peninsula out of cone as of this evening.

Yup. Even our meteorologist here in Tampa said it’s going to be clear and sunny on Sunday and we have nothing to worry about with Isaiais.

That's going to be true unless it shifts back to the west. It was sunny with a light breeze here during Matthew

[TheStormExpert]

18z EPS just offshore SFL quite a few inland.

https://iili.io/d5rczJ.png

Still the bulk are offshore and over Grand Bahama Island.

[gatorcane]

FWIW, the 18z Navgem shifted West and makes landfall in South Florida as a strong TS. The rest of the run goes up the spine of FL and exits the coast in NE Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200731/a53aa3e64edb49921640c9337feb72f9.jpg


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The model shows much more ridging for some reason on this run. Not sure why, maybe it got some new data?

[AxaltaRacing24]

FWIW, the 18z Navgem shifted West and makes landfall in South Florida as a strong TS. The rest of the run goes up the spine of FL and exits the coast in NE Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200731/a53aa3e64edb49921640c9337feb72f9.jpg


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The model shows much more ridging for some reason on this run. Not sure why, maybe it got some new data?

https://i.postimg.cc/brfLtWW8/navgem-z500-mslp-watl-6.png

it is also the NAV...

[DestinHurricane]

NAVGEM was also the first to sniff out Irma's shift west.

[AxaltaRacing24]

NAVGEM was also the first to sniff out Irma's shift west.

for sure, i'd gain a lot of respect if it somehow does it again here.

[SFLcane]

NAVGEM was also the first to sniff out Irma's shift west.

Sure did!

Ridge looks stronger on the 18z run let’s see if it’s on to something.

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro ensemble tracks, this could be a big deal for Eastern NC, the Mid-Atlantic and especially the Northeast who aren't too used to sub 970mb hurricanes racing through...

[gatorcane]

00Z NAM has shifted a bit south indicating a slightly stronger ridge through 21 hours. I do wonder if the models are getting some new data fed in.

[NDG]

I wished NOAA would had been sampling the narrow ridging to the north, seems to be holding tighter.

[toad strangler]

00Z NAM has shifted a bit south indicating a slightly stronger ridge through 21 hours. I do wonder if the models are getting some new data fed in.

[AutoPenalti]

Trough looks flatter.

[sma10]

00Z NAM has shifted a bit south indicating a slightly stronger ridge through 21 hours. I do wonder if the models are getting some new data fed in.

I'm not sure this run is further south as much as its just slower

[SFLcane]

Nam coming in way south.. hmm

I know it’s the nam.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks east to me

[MJGarrison]

NAVGEM was also the first to sniff out Irma's shift west.

for sure, i'd gain a lot of respect if it somehow does it again here.

If the answer is ‘new data’ and the GFS and Euro shift west in the upcoming run, the NAVGEM in this case just has the benefit of being run before the other models.


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