ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

After watching Levi’s video there may be reason for concern here in New England depending on how the jet aligns with the storm. Could be an intensifying hurricane coming up the coast or possibly out to sea. Some nail biting in the days ahead. Most people here have never experienced a hurricane and that can be a dangerous scenario.

Exactly. That neck of the woods hasn't experienced a hurricane in 3 decades...it will be at least 1/3 of the populations first time experiencing one there if it maintains hurricane strength. We're not even that far out at this point so the fact we're seeing this possibly landfalling in New England in 6 days is telling, especially since models have constantly been showing this hugging the coast all the way up.

[chaser1]

recon just took off

Ah, thank you!. I was hoping we'd get recon up in the air. I'm assuming all data gathered will be assimilated for the 0600 Models? If not, certainly for tomorrow a.m.'s 12Z run.

[cp79]

Hi Aric, are you suggesting models are coming back westward because of this?

any further progression to the west faster would lead to west shifts.

Not only is it ahead of forecasts, it is also south of forecast track and heading barley north of west. I would expect some west shifts unless it slows down and starts gaining latitude quickly.

Well the NAVGEM just did the first dramatic shift.
We’ll see if they’re an outlier or others follow them. But it has it going nearly all the way into the west coast of Fla.

[Visioen]

Hi Aric, are you suggesting models are coming back westward because of this?

any further progression to the west faster would lead to west shifts.

Not only is it ahead of forecasts, it is also south of forecast track and heading barley north of west. I would expect some west shifts unless it slows down and starts gaining latitude quickly.

Don't forget that Aric's original post began with "If there is an llc under that MLC".

[aspen]

I doubt the MLC and LLC are stacked right now; I think the LLC might be a little SE of the MLC and still over Hispaniola. Isaias is likely going to level off in intensity until both centers are over water and able to stack.

[weathaguyry]

I am very nervous about this here on the South Shore of Long Island. My entire town is only about 3 feet above sea level in the back Bay area, so things could get very scary if the core comes over us during high tide. On top of that, the full moon is on the 3rd, so tides will be near their highest possible levels all along the coast when the storm passes by.

Are you out east in Nassau County? I think that beyond the Carolina coastline, eastern Long Island stands to be at greatest risk of the center making landfall or at least close by. Luckily that's a few days off but once this storms clears the Bahamas and Florida coastline, much attention will become more focused on the storms future path.

Yes I am in Nassau County, Island Park to be exact. Suffolk County may get the brunt of this out east, but even sustained ts winds during high tide would be more than enough to cause a lot of issues here.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Is the storm for sure set to turn? Or is the general rule of thumb in play for a weaker storm to drift more west and the stronger storm curve more towards the east?

[SFLcane]

You would think most of that wind field will be over SFL.

 https://twitter.com/philferro7/status/1289008849333125121

[TheStormExpert]

You would think most of that wind field will be over SFL.

https://twitter.com/philferro7/status/1 ... 25121?s=21

Well if it stays offshore on the current NHC track or slightly west we’ll likely get TS winds. Of course Isaias is a much bigger storm compared to Matthew or Dorian, more comparable in size to Irma.

[Blown Away]

Now that Isaias is about to move off Hispaniola, the first bench mark will be Inagua Island. The NHC track goes directly over and and southerly track will likely affect the track closer to FL.

[aspen]

Is recon even flying? Tropical Tidbits still shows the plane on the runway, and somehow it has a duplicate of the same flight.

[Hurricaneman]

Is recon even flying? Tropical Tidbits still shows the plane on the runway, and somehow it has a duplicate of the same flight.

Getting ready to take off

[tropicwatch]

Is recon even flying? Tropical Tidbits still shows the plane on the runway, and somehow it has a duplicate of the same flight.

It looks like they are finally on the way.

[Aric Dunn]

This is interesting

I saw the Euro showing this feature early yesterday when it had it run along the coast of Cuba..
the large Gyre and vorticity in the NW carrib may force Isalsa to stay more westward or bend wsw as it passes Hati.

[SFLcane]

Aric,

Noticed a slight westward shift in the 00z guidance tonight might this be the result of that forward speed you mentioned?

[SapphireSea]

This is interesting

I saw the Euro showing this feature early yesterday when it had it run along the coast of Cuba..
the large Gyre and vorticity in the NW carrib may force Isalsa to stay more westward or bend wsw as it passes Hati.

Very interesting image. I don't really see that driving the storm west though. As a matter of fact this image shows that the ridge to the north is eroding. Last few images show the MLC package starting a 335 type movement.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

Noticed a slight westward shift in the 00z guidance tonight might this be the result of that forward speed you mentioned?

quite possible.. its hard to say.. if 00z shifts more westerly than that is the likely cause.

[boca]

This is interesting

I saw the Euro showing this feature early yesterday when it had it run along the coast of Cuba..
the large Gyre and vorticity in the NW carrib may force Isalsa to stay more westward or bend wsw as it passes Hati.

https://i.ibb.co/N9W5FC3/999999999.gif

What are you saying that Isalsa will turn more west instead of NW heading now?

[wx98]

Plane is in the air...

[Aric Dunn]

This is interesting

I saw the Euro showing this feature early yesterday when it had it run along the coast of Cuba..
the large Gyre and vorticity in the NW carrib may force Isalsa to stay more westward or bend wsw as it passes Hati.

https://i.ibb.co/N9W5FC3/999999999.gif

What are you saying that Isalsa will turn more west instead of NW heading now?

stay more west longer before turning wnw/NW