ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2481 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:43 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Looks like recon is flying through an intense convective burst.

https://i.imgur.com/DKQv6FG.gif


Literally right over the center, looks stacked quite well right now


I'm not so sure about that yet...some very strong winds at surface when flt level was calm
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2482 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:44 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Kinda surprised that the NHC went straight to 70kts


This could be super bad news for the eastern seaboard, a stronger hurricane than forecast at peak by the NHC
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2483 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:45 pm

At this rate a major is not out of the question. 2020 continues to amaze us.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS -Hurricane - Discussion

#2484 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:46 pm

That's a pretty tight pressure gradient.

033200 2020N 07204W 8399 01501 9967 +191 +180 110014 016 /// /// 03
033230 2021N 07204W 8376 01530 9969 +195 +169 091022 024 /// /// 03
033300 2023N 07205W 8412 01487 9971 +186 +171 079031 034 /// /// 03
033330 2023N 07207W 8446 01464 //// +157 //// 062059 067 /// /// 05
033400 2024N 07209W 8429 01500 //// +148 //// 048062 069 /// /// 05
033430 2025N 07210W 8457 01481 //// +145 //// 048057 068 /// /// 05
033500 2026N 07211W 8453 01486 //// +141 //// 052043 052 /// /// 05
033530 2027N 07212W 8412 01530 //// +137 //// 063035 039 /// /// 05
033600 2029N 07213W 8444 01497 //// +138 //// 064039 043 /// /// 05
033630 2030N 07214W 8432 01513 0057 +152 //// 063049 053 052 026 01
033700 2031N 07216W 8426 01522 0058 +166 +166 066054 056 048 021 00
033730 2033N 07217W 8433 01519 0055 +168 +168 065057 058 044 012 00
033800 2034N 07218W 8428 01531 0053 +171 +171 068061 066 044 009 00
033830 2035N 07219W 8436 01524 0053 +170 +170 073065 066 044 008 00
033900 2037N 07220W 8434 01531 0060 +170 +170 076062 064 045 006 00
033930 2038N 07221W 8432 01535 0060 +171 +167 076061 063 047 006 00
034000 2040N 07223W 8423 01545 0057 +177 +151 079055 059 052 004 00
034030 2041N 07224W 8433 01537 0060 +177 +146 078055 055 053 003 00
034100 2043N 07225W 8428 01542 0058 +181 +144 077053 055 053 004 00
034130 2044N 07226W 8433 01540 0060 +181 +147 076054 056 053 005 00
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2485 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:46 pm

TheDreamTraveler wrote:I figured that Isaias wouldn't be harmed too much by Hispaniola depending on how it tracked over the island, how fast it was moving at 23mph then 18mph and also the fact it was a broad storm and disorganized. Now if you told me we'd be seeing hurricane strength winds right after traveling over Hispaniola...yeah I didn't expect that. Hispaniola is a pretty tricky island to nail down since it doesn't always weaken storms like Fay 2008. It's usually the stronger storms that get ripped apart by it more if it tracks over the island.



The friction off the island focused the energy into a smaller area instead of it being so spread out. Expect this to strengthen into a cat2 over the next 12-24 hours based on current trends and threaten florida and then the Carolina's.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2486 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:47 pm

aspen wrote:
NDG wrote:A very well defined LLC found.

https://i.imgur.com/pz4669J.png

And there’s a massive hot tower firing above it. Well defined LLC, new bursts of convection, and hurricane-force FL winds all suggest this could be about to ramp up quickly.


Is ramping up quicker that I was thinking, tomorrow morning instead of tonight.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2487 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:47 pm

Made a direct landfall on an island with 10000ft mountains then came out as a 70kt hurricane. 2020 strikes again.
Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2488 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:48 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
TheDreamTraveler wrote:I figured that Isaias wouldn't be harmed too much by Hispaniola depending on how it tracked over the island, how fast it was moving at 23mph then 18mph and also the fact it was a broad storm and disorganized. Now if you told me we'd be seeing hurricane strength winds right after traveling over Hispaniola...yeah I didn't expect that. Hispaniola is a pretty tricky island to nail down since it doesn't always weaken storms like Fay 2008. It's usually the stronger storms that get ripped apart by it more if it tracks over the island.



The friction off the island focused the energy into a smaller area instead of it being so spread out. Expect this to strengthen into a cat2 over the next 12-24 hours based on current trends and threaten florida and then the Carolina's.

Especially when it does get stacked which shouldn't be long...wish they had a dropsonde at the center
edit: looks like they did. Lots of suspect readings from the plane, but this was consistent all the way down about 11kts
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2489 Postby zhukm29 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:48 pm

supercane4867 wrote:It's a bit early, but I think there's a decent chance that we won't have to pronounce Isaias again in 2026. I hope they replace it with a better name...


This is actually quite hilarious because it would be the third consecutive 'I' retirement on List 6 (Isidore -> Ike -> Isaias).

The reason the 'I' storm gets retired a lot is because it always ends up during peak season. Yet this time the 'I' storm may be on the cutting block and it formed in July. The 'I' curse is definitely real... I think 50% of all 'I' storms have been retired during the 21st century. :eek:

Also funny that 'I' has the fewest names as well... it would be a lot easier to find replacements if 'H' or 'J' were the 9th letter of the alphabet instead.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2490 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:49 pm

zhukm29 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:It's a bit early, but I think there's a decent chance that we won't have to pronounce Isaias again in 2026. I hope they replace it with a better name...


This is actually quite hilarious because it would be the third consecutive 'I' retirement on List 6 (Isidore -> Ike -> Isaias).

The reason the 'I' storm gets retired a lot is because it always ends up during peak season. Yet this time the 'I' storm may be on the cutting block and it formed in July. The 'I' curse is definitely real... I think 50% of all 'I' storms have been retired during the 21st century. :eek:

Also funny that 'I' has the fewest names as well... it would be a lot easier to find replacements if 'H' or 'J' were the 9th letter of the alphabet instead.

Maybe they should just retire the whole letter...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS -Hurricane - Discussion

#2491 Postby artist » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:49 pm

Last edited by artist on Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2492 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:49 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
TheDreamTraveler wrote:I figured that Isaias wouldn't be harmed too much by Hispaniola depending on how it tracked over the island, how fast it was moving at 23mph then 18mph and also the fact it was a broad storm and disorganized. Now if you told me we'd be seeing hurricane strength winds right after traveling over Hispaniola...yeah I didn't expect that. Hispaniola is a pretty tricky island to nail down since it doesn't always weaken storms like Fay 2008. It's usually the stronger storms that get ripped apart by it more if it tracks over the island.



The friction off the island focused the energy into a smaller area instead of it being so spread out. Expect this to strengthen into a cat2 over the next 12-24 hours based on current trends and threaten florida and then the Carolina's.


It’s not even a large hurricane anymore, has a small core compared to normal so expect Large ups and downs with this, wouldn’t be surprised to see an eye show up sometime tomorrow
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2493 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:50 pm

Just taking a look at the latest GFS rolling in. So far it is almost a mirror image to 18z. However, Great Inagua is a good waypoint to keep an eye on. According to the GFS it looks like is has it passing north of Great Inagua. Time will tell if that actually happens.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2494 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:50 pm

A hurricane that isn’t vertically stacked? :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2495 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:51 pm

I wonder what the implications for future forecasting will be as a result of this. The formerly known shredder known as Hispanola was actually a catalyst for intensification.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2496 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:51 pm

New placement is .2 SW of where the 11pm advisory had Isaias marked.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2497 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:52 pm

If there is anything going against it, rapid intensification may be difficult until it can get a well-defined eye.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2498 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:52 pm

What. :eek: Uh. Well that happened
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2499 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:53 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:I wonder what the implications for future forecasting will be as a result of this. The formerly known shredder known as Hispanola was actually a catalyst for intensification.


The 11PM forecast never got above 75mph and that wasn't for another 36 hours.

40 minutes later, 80mph now.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2500 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:53 pm

Well, now that it’s this strong it should have problem getting picked up quickly be the dip in the jet stream. More eastward shifts to track forthcoming?
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