ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[aspen]

I’m looking at the 00z GFS run and I’m just like Ralph Wiggum:

*chuckles* I’m in danger

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Also shows it landfalling in Maine

The orange wind band is just offshore of my position on this run, fun (there goes the boat).

[TheDreamTraveler]

I think a lot of us are forgetting it's still July literally in the heart of summer still...normally these types of threats happen in late august or september.

[Hurricaneman]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/738607722366500934/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_18.png
0z GFS sends a hurricane into Long Island.

That’s an 85mph hurricane for Long Island/New England and the thing is that could be conservative if this gains more strength than modeled

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looks like a similar path to Carol in 1954 on the GFS, something I didn’t think I would say in Late July, Early August

More akin to Edna of 1954 actually. Carol of 1954 (yes we had two storms that year) went straight north from LI up into Vermont and eventually Quebec whereas Edna curved east like this model run.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the CMC needs to lay off the Peyote and get with current events...

[TheDreamTraveler]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/738607722366500934/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_18.png
0z GFS sends a hurricane into Long Island.

That’s an 85mph hurricane for Long Island/New England and the thing is that could be conservative if this gains more strength than modeled

Especially the fact that once hurricanes get attached to fronts that they gain forward speed as they move up the coast so they can strike faster without weakening from the cool waters as fast. But Isaias has always liked to move really fast lol...

Given all the model runs we've been seeing for days now you should be paying attention if you live anywhere on the east coast. There's still a chance it gets pushed far enough east to barely impact anyone on the coast but that scenario doesn't look as likely currently. This is a big threat. I think we'll have a better understanding later tomorrow about the actual path it'll take.

[TheStormExpert]

I think the CMC needs to lay off the Peyote and get with current events...

https://i.imgur.com/NFiKCsn.gif

Geez what happened to this model!? It used to blowup every cloud in the Atlantic now it severely underestimated the intensity of a hurricane?

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the CMC needs to lay off the Peyote and get with current events...

https://i.imgur.com/NFiKCsn.gif

Geez what happened to this model!? It used to blowup every cloud in the Atlantic now it severely underestimated the intensity of a hurricane?

It just took an afternoon thunderstorm and made landfall in South Florida.

[CrazyC83]

In 1955, Connie and Diane were both in the early part of August. I agree though that it's early for this kind of track. That's more like Bob or Edna.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z HMON is running and it actually looks like it initialized pretty good.

[Beef Stew]

So in the 0z GFS, Isaias decides to take an early August trip to the Big Apple while Josephine respects social distancing and politely waves to the SE US from afar.

2020, folks.

[shah83]

HMON definitely doesn't have the pressure gradient right.

Think we might be underestimating the strength of the ridge?

[emeraldislenc]

You are right about Connie and Diane in 1955. They both hit NC in August. I think they were within 10 days of each other.

[supercane4867]

00z UKMET has a major hurricane landfall for NC.947mb

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 20.0N 71.3W 1002 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 21.4N 73.6W 997 49
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 23.0N 75.4W 992 57
1200UTC 01.08.2020 36 24.7N 77.1W 987 60
0000UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 78.0W 980 61
1200UTC 02.08.2020 60 27.2N 78.4W 975 61
0000UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.6N 78.8W 968 69
1200UTC 03.08.2020 84 30.0N 78.9W 967 69
0000UTC 04.08.2020 96 31.8N 78.3W 959 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 108 34.7N 77.1W 947 74
0000UTC 05.08.2020 120 38.8N 74.8W 964 70
1200UTC 05.08.2020 132 42.8N 71.6W 978 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 144 45.9N 68.9W 996 33

[CrazyC83]

00z UKMET has a major hurricane landfall for NC.947mb

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 20.0N 71.3W 1002 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 21.4N 73.6W 997 49
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 23.0N 75.4W 992 57
1200UTC 01.08.2020 36 24.7N 77.1W 987 60
0000UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 78.0W 980 61
1200UTC 02.08.2020 60 27.2N 78.4W 975 61
0000UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.6N 78.8W 968 69
1200UTC 03.08.2020 84 30.0N 78.9W 967 69
0000UTC 04.08.2020 96 31.8N 78.3W 959 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 108 34.7N 77.1W 947 74
0000UTC 05.08.2020 120 38.8N 74.8W 964 70
1200UTC 05.08.2020 132 42.8N 71.6W 978 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 144 45.9N 68.9W 996 33

Basically an Irene redux.

[sponger]

HMON well off the NE coast of Florida. All bets are off until we get better data on the ridge.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=09L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020073100&fh=-3

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF takes this into South/Central East Florida for the second run in a row now, and a tad bit more W this time, although that may vary by frame.

[crimi481]

Strong ridge. May go to se gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

00z UKMET has a major hurricane landfall for NC.947mb

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 20.0N 71.3W 1002 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 21.4N 73.6W 997 49
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 23.0N 75.4W 992 57
1200UTC 01.08.2020 36 24.7N 77.1W 987 60
0000UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 78.0W 980 61
1200UTC 02.08.2020 60 27.2N 78.4W 975 61
0000UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.6N 78.8W 968 69
1200UTC 03.08.2020 84 30.0N 78.9W 967 69
0000UTC 04.08.2020 96 31.8N 78.3W 959 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 108 34.7N 77.1W 947 74
0000UTC 05.08.2020 120 38.8N 74.8W 964 70
1200UTC 05.08.2020 132 42.8N 71.6W 978 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 144 45.9N 68.9W 996 33

Basically an Irene redux.

But didn’t Irene make landfall in NC as a Cat.1?