ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1801 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:26 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:00z UKMET has a major hurricane landfall for NC.947mb

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 20.0N 71.3W 1002 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 21.4N 73.6W 997 49
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 23.0N 75.4W 992 57
1200UTC 01.08.2020 36 24.7N 77.1W 987 60
0000UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 78.0W 980 61
1200UTC 02.08.2020 60 27.2N 78.4W 975 61
0000UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.6N 78.8W 968 69
1200UTC 03.08.2020 84 30.0N 78.9W 967 69
0000UTC 04.08.2020 96 31.8N 78.3W 959 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 108 34.7N 77.1W 947 74
0000UTC 05.08.2020 120 38.8N 74.8W 964 70
1200UTC 05.08.2020 132 42.8N 71.6W 978 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 144 45.9N 68.9W 996 33


Basically an Irene redux.

But didn’t Irene make landfall in NC as a Cat.1?


Yes but a pressure of 950 mb.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1802 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:43 am

00z HMON would be the strongest NC landfall on record. 120kt CAT4

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1803 Postby sponger » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:46 am

Euro running at last.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2020073100&fh=0
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1804 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:56 am

Compared to the model run 24 hours ago, it has shifted slightly east.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1805 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:58 am

must take note here carefully.. the 00z Euro heads this off to the wnw/NW

current recon fixes and motion are not inline..

(rough drawing)
Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1806 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:03 am

Euro looks like it has the dreaded thumb ridge at 48 hours.


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1807 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:03 am


They have it with a higher pressure than it has now, according to recon....
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1808 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:10 am

Right near the Florida east coast at 72hrs. Similar to 12z run earlier today

Image


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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1809 Postby Orlando » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:10 am

Aric Dunn wrote:must take note here carefully.. the 00z Euro heads this off to the wnw/NW

current recon fixes and motion are not inline..

(rough drawing)
https://i.ibb.co/TvR3M8L/Capture.png


Hi Aric...

So what does all of that mean for Florida? Do you think it will come in closer west causing central FL to be in play?

This one is tricky!
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1810 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:12 am

Orlando wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:must take note here carefully.. the 00z Euro heads this off to the wnw/NW

current recon fixes and motion are not inline..

(rough drawing)
https://i.ibb.co/TvR3M8L/Capture.png


Hi Aric...

So what does all of that mean for Florida? Do you think it will come in closer west causing central FL to be in play?

This one is tricky!


quite possibly.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1811 Postby Blizzard96x » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:13 am

Can anyone explain to me the difference between the regular 24 hr ECMWF and the ECMWF Hi-Res?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1812 Postby Keldeo1997 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:14 am

I wonder how Models are going to react later today after they get Data for a storm that might be 10 MPH stronger then what was predicted
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1813 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:22 am

Good morning. Got some sleep and burning the midnight oil tracking Hurricane Isaias.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1814 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:23 am

Landfall into north carolina at 120hrs

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1815 Postby sponger » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:25 am

Orlando wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:must take note here carefully.. the 00z Euro heads this off to the wnw/NW

current recon fixes and motion are not inline..

(rough drawing)
https://i.ibb.co/TvR3M8L/Capture.png


Hi Aric...

So what does all of that mean for Florida? Do you think it will come in closer west causing central FL to be in play?

This one is tricky!


Thanks Aric!
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1816 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:26 am

I see EURO has Florida East Coast very much back in play. Thrre is a decent ridge at 700 mb whi h extends currently to about 90 degrees Longitude. This is going to gey very, very interesting this weekend folks.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1817 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:26 am

northjaxpro wrote:Good morning. Got some sleep and burning the midnight oil tracking Hurricane Isaias.


Oh God lol, that's awesome. I'm tagging out! My eyes can't take it any more :double: I plan on waking up to some Florida coastline Tropical Storm Warnings.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1818 Postby Beef Stew » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:29 am

The 00z euro run appears to take it slightly to the NE of Inagua, but Isaias currently appears to be heading to the SW of the Island. Like Aric mentioned, this was initialized prior to the most recent recon fixes, and doesn't seem to align quite with the current heading. It'll be interesting to see how the future runs compare to this...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1819 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:35 am

My thoughts all along for days have been that the ridge was being underfone by GFS.

We may be looking at a full U.S.East Coast hugger of a hurricane .with wide ranging potential impacts.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1820 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:37 am

Euro scrapes the entire east coast from Florida to Maine lol

Actually should say there's a landfall in north carolina and looks like new england also gets a landfall as well so maybe I shouldn't have said scrape
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