ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Orlando]

Thanks Aric!
Not what I wanted to hear, but preparing anyway.

[Highteeld]

[Kat5]

Fwiw the 06zNAM is coming in a bit East. This is good indication that the models are continuing the eastward trend.

[caneman]

Fwiw the 06zNAM is coming in a bit East. This is good indication that the models are continuing the eastward trend.

Dont think the NAM is a good indication of anything. Euro rides up the cost of Florida

[Bocadude85]

Fwiw the 06zNAM is coming in a bit East. This is good indication that the models are continuing the eastward trend.

The NAM isn’t exactly a stellar tropical model... but for what it’s worth it is west of its 0z run and makes landfall in Florida.

[sponger]

Fwiw the 06zNAM is coming in a bit East. This is good indication that the models are continuing the eastward trend.

The NAM isn’t exactly a stellar tropical model... but for what it’s worth it is west of its 0z run and makes landfall in Florida.

Yep, rounds the high right into Vero.

[AdamFirst]

06z ICON landfalls the storm in Northern Palm Beach County/Martin County. Shift west from the 0z suite.

[eastcoastFL]

What’s going on with the CMC ? It brings it all the way across the state into the gulf then back NE across the state... is it just faster or stronger ridge?

[Hammy]

I'm thinking given what's transpired tonight, the NAM's intensity output doesn't look all that crazy now--takes a Cat 3 up the coast just offshore.

What’s going on with the CMC ? It brings it all the way across the state into the gulf then back NE across the state... is it just faster or stronger ridge?

It was also the last model to turn Dorian north (and this was only after it had already started north in the first place) so likely part of the corrections that were made to the model where it stopped spinning everything into a storm, also led to it overestimating ridge strength.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm thinking given what's transpired tonight, the NAM's intensity output doesn't look all that crazy now--takes a Cat 3 up the coast just offshore.

What’s going on with the CMC ? It brings it all the way across the state into the gulf then back NE across the state... is it just faster or stronger ridge?

It was also the last model to turn Dorian north (and this was only after it had already started north in the first place) so likely part of the corrections that were made to the model where it stopped spinning everything into a storm, also led to it overestimating ridge strength.

The Dorian models cost me big bucks. Flew all the way to Denver from PBI to run from Dorian as we were forecast as a landfall point 4 days out. Seems like most models struggled with forecasting that stall over the Bahamas. Did any of them actually forecast it to just sit there for 2 days?

[NDG]

06z GFS so far through 24 hrs is coming in a little further south than previous runs with a slightly stronger ridging to the N & E.

[NDG]

Pretty good shift to the west by the 06z GFS.

[eastcoastFL]

At 36 hrs gfs still has it at 995mb

[kevin]

No Florida landfall (yet) in this run, but further West & South than the GFS 00z run at 48 hrs.

[eastcoastFL]

48 hours appears to be touching the space coast

[NDG]

This is probably the closest to the Treasure Coast run the GFS has had Isaias during the past couple of days.

[toad strangler]

6z GFS is a pretty significant shift W in relation to the FL coast. Just offshore of Vero Beach.

[lando]

48 hours appears to be touching the space coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020073106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png

This is the treasure coast, space coast is north of there

[artist]

I keep having visions of Frances and Jeanne with that close approach by a couple of the models now.

[NDG]

0z Euro Ensembles.