ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[kevin]

0z Euro Ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/JdsMs6S.png

Would anyone happen to know why the euro members seem to initialize this system too weak? Most members seem to be in the 40 - 60 knots range at 0 hrs, even though NHC already upped the intensity to 70 knots a while ago.

[NDG]

0z Euro Ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/JdsMs6S.png

Would anyone happen to know why the euro members seem to initialize this system too weak? Most members seem to be in the 40 - 60 knots range at 0 hrs, even though NHC already upped the intensity to 70 knots a while ago.

The model was started at 0z, at that time it was officially a 50 knot storm.

[kevin]

0z Euro Ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/JdsMs6S.png

Would anyone happen to know why the euro members seem to initialize this system too weak? Most members seem to be in the 40 - 60 knots range at 0 hrs, even though NHC already upped the intensity to 70 knots a while ago.

The model was started at 0z, at that time it was officially a 50 knot storm.

Ah okay that makes sense, thanks for explanation. I was already in the '06z mode'.

[jlauderdal]

I'm thinking given what's transpired tonight, the NAM's intensity output doesn't look all that crazy now--takes a Cat 3 up the coast just offshore.

What’s going on with the CMC ? It brings it all the way across the state into the gulf then back NE across the state... is it just faster or stronger ridge?

It was also the last model to turn Dorian north (and this was only after it had already started north in the first place) so likely part of the corrections that were made to the model where it stopped spinning everything into a storm, also led to it overestimating ridge strength.

The Dorian models cost me big bucks. Flew all the way to Denver from PBI to run from Dorian as we were forecast as a landfall point 4 days out. Seems like most models struggled with forecasting that stall over the Bahamas. Did any of them actually forecast it to just sit there for 2 days?

I remember that well, you chronicled your journey on this board.

The latest GFS run has potential issue, its too weak and thus could be the cause of the westward shift.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 GFS and 00z Euro now bring him desperately close to the Treasure Coast.

[BobHarlem]

6Z HWRF is a good deal east of the 0z run so far, closer to Abaco and Andros at 30 hours. (12z was over the north tip of Andros)

[eastcoastFL]

I'm thinking given what's transpired tonight, the NAM's intensity output doesn't look all that crazy now--takes a Cat 3 up the coast just offshore.



It was also the last model to turn Dorian north (and this was only after it had already started north in the first place) so likely part of the corrections that were made to the model where it stopped spinning everything into a storm, also led to it overestimating ridge strength.

The Dorian models cost me big bucks. Flew all the way to Denver from PBI to run from Dorian as we were forecast as a landfall point 4 days out. Seems like most models struggled with forecasting that stall over the Bahamas. Did any of them actually forecast it to just sit there for 2 days?

I remember that well, you chronicled your journey on this board.

The latest GFS run has potential issue, its too weak and thus could be the cause of the westward shift.

That’s right. Everyone was a big help here. Let’s see if the west trends continue. Hopefully it will weaken today and tomorrow. It’s looking like tomorrow afternoon through sun morning will be the worst of it for us

[HurricaneFrances04]

6Z GFS Ensembles are considerably weaker. Most show a Florida east coast landfall as a weak system.

[BobHarlem]

HWRF doesn't landfall in Florida this time, but gets within 25 miles of Melbourne, still sheared heavily to the east, (Florida barely feels it) Then it appears to landfall somewhere north of Charleston. HMON is similar to 0z, only slower landfall near Morehead City Monday morning, cat 1... maybe 2.

[HurricaneFrances04]

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://i.imgur.com/Kz4bRCe.png

Damn your weren't kidding when you said most make landfall.

[DestinHurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/Kz4bRCe.png

The only reason they are showing landfall is because they are all weak. Should shift back east at 12z.

[Jr0d]

The NHC pushes the cone east so the models shift west. With Isaias now likely back down to a tropical storm, they might initialize too strong next run.

Florida is not off the hook yet, but the weakening trend is encouraging. It almost seems like time to forget the models and forecast based on what the storm and trough are currently doing.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/Kz4bRCe.png

That’s quite the change on the ensembles mostly show landfall now.

[gatorcane]

The GFS-based models certainly look to be shifting slightly west each run. They are also trending weaker.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/Kz4bRCe.png

The only reason they are showing landfall is because they are all weak. Should shift back east at 12z.

Why? Very disorganized this morning looks horrible on satellite. GFS could be on to something.

[chris_fit]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro and the Euro Ens?

[otowntiger]

https://i.imgur.com/Kz4bRCe.png

Damn your weren't kidding when you said most make landfall.

Yeah, but aren’t most of those landfalls naked swirls with most of their convection offshore?

[clambite]

https://i.imgur.com/Kz4bRCe.png

Damn your weren't kidding when you said most make landfall.

Yeah, but aren’t most of those landfalls naked swirls with most of their convection offshore?

Not in NC !

[SFLcane]

Anyone have the 06Z Euro and the Euro Ens?

It’s loading now will post when it’s done.