ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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caneman
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1861 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:54 am

DestinHurricane wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Kz4bRCe.png

The only reason they are showing landfall is because they are all weak. Should shift back east at 12z.


Don't think that is necessarily true. Think it has more to do with stronger ridging. While it may be weaker now it doesnt mean once closer it can't- won't blow up
Last edited by caneman on Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1862 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:55 am

No they're all pretty weak at landfall. Weaker system is more likely to go west.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1863 Postby Steve H. » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:00 am

Stronger doesn't necessarily mean poleward. Ridging would trump that, like a top guided by a string.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1864 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:00 am

Euro is considerably further west. Like, offshore Miami west lol.

Edit: Landfall Miami.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1865 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:00 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:No they're all pretty weak at landfall. Weaker system is more likely to go west.


Both are true but NHC acknowledged at 5 it was already more West even when it was stronger.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1866 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:03 am

O6z Euro his SFL!!! :eek:

Image
Last edited by SFLcane on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1867 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:03 am

Steve H. wrote:Stronger doesn't necessarily mean poleward. Ridging would trump that, like a top guided by a string.


Not always, but in this case the models that show a stronger and vertically stacked system are further east than the ones that don't.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1868 Postby Bhuggs » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:04 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Euro is considerably further west. Like, offshore Miami west lol.

Edit: Landfall Miami.


Strength?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1869 Postby blp » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:05 am

06z Euro further West

Image
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caneman
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1870 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:06 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Stronger doesn't necessarily mean poleward. Ridging would trump that, like a top guided by a string.


Not always, but in this case the models that show a stronger and vertically stacked system are further east than the ones that don't.


Once again. NHC said it was more West than forecasted and the was when it was stronger. That was ridging
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1871 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:06 am

Wow stronger ridge on that Euro :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1872 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:07 am

Why does the ridging make it weak?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1873 Postby cp79 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 am

DestinHurricane wrote:Why does the ridging make it weak?


There’s shear and dry air infiltrating it.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1874 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:10 am

DestinHurricane wrote:Why does the ridging make it weak?


More to do with sheer and dry air i think
I'm not paying too much attention to strength. Always always prepare for the worse
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1875 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:18 am

Steve H. wrote:Stronger doesn't necessarily mean poleward. Ridging would trump that, like a top guided by a string.
good point...hispanola doesnt always weaken storms, strong systems dont always go poleward, they wont bust through ridges and if this ridge the euro is seeing is strong enough this becomes a florida landfalling system easily..the ten gas cans are loaded in the car and ready
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1876 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:19 am

NAVGEM also shifts west and is weaker:

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1877 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:21 am

caneman wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Why does the ridging make it weak?


More to do with sheer and dry air i think
I'm not paying too much attention to strength. Always always prepare for the worse

Is dry air and sheer really that much different just 40 miles west of the current forecast? I could see it maybe 200 miles west into the gulf but with this we are talking micro adjustments.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1878 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:22 am

This season keeps surprising us and models keep having a hard time in the short to medium range.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1879 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:23 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Stronger doesn't necessarily mean poleward. Ridging would trump that, like a top guided by a string.
good point...hispanola doesnt always weaken storms, strong systems dont always go poleward, they wont bust through ridges and if this ridge the euro is seeing is strong enough this becomes a florida landfalling system easily..the ten gas cans are loaded in the car and ready


Yep going to top the cars soon. Hopefully not a trend yikes
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#1880 Postby cp79 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:25 am

Euro and NAVGEM have it going to spots outside the NHC’s cone.

Btw if this thing does go inland to Fla, the CMC gets an award here. They’ve been consistently calling for a weak system to cross over to the west coast for days now.
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