ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cp79]

The way it’s headed, this thing could be down to a tropical wave in 24 hours. It’s bleeding badly.

[northjaxpro]

Hispaniola has nothing to do with this. This is all shear related. It has a strong circulation should be able to hold on for the foreseeable future. The question is will the shear abate and allow strengthening or is it going to be battling this all the way up the coast.

RIght. My safe hunch is for much.of Florida will see a sheared TS which the heavy effects being felt on the lopsided portion of the storm on the East Coast.

HOWEVER, because it is traversing over extremely warm ssts, there is always a possibility that Isaias can re-intensify.That is my big concern this weekend...

[aspen]

Isn’t shear expected to be somewhat more favorable when Isaias is off the SEUS coast?

[Jr0d]

Hispaniola has nothing to do with this. This is all shear related. It has a strong circulation should be able to hold on for the foreseeable future. The question is will the shear abate and allow strengthening or is it going to be battling this all the way up the coast.

Hispaniola helped spin it up last night via frictional forces, then hurt Isaias by cutting off the inflow this morning. Still stuggling with inflow and now shear and maybe dryer air.

Far from dead though. A 992ish low just does not go poof and there is still a vigourous LLC.

Plenty of warm water ahead, we will see what the ahear does. That always seems to be tough to forecast.

[wxman57]

Center is now exposed west of the convection. Shear is taking its toll.

[lhpfish]

Shear is actually decreasing at the moment over the NW Bahamas and South Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/gc8Qnvjy/wg8sht.gif

That's not very much shear, I thought the forecast was for shear as it approaches the coast?

Watching the storm on the Visible, it seems like it's on the more wnw side of nw... shooting for the southern tip of Andros.

Watching closely. It's hard to buy into the current track, based on the time table and the current pace of the storm.

(NOT A FORECAST)

[Vdogg]

Looks like Hispanola may have claimed another one. Isaias is dying a slow death this morning. Shear, of course, is aiding to it, but HIspanola did a job on the center.

It hasn’t claimed anything yet. The center literally just left the Hispaniola coast a few hours ago. Let’s see what happens as it gains latitude and gets away from the mountains.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This looks much better than it did a couple of hours ago. Outflow is starting to resume over the storm and all the southwesterly flow ahead of the storm I saw yesterday isnt there today, at least not on the sat loops I am looking at now.

[Kazmit]

The way it’s headed, this thing could be down to a tropical wave in 24 hours. It’s bleeding badly.

Or it could be a cat 3. There really is no telling with this storm so I wouldn't make exaggerated statements like this.

[lhpfish]

When does recon fly again?

[Evil Jeremy]

Wasn't this expected? I remember Aric saying yesterday that it's inflow will be cut off by Hispaniola and it will struggle for a bit.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

yes it’s just this forum is so ADHD everyone just completely changes their mind on the storm based on short term changes

It’s so crazy how everyone is calling time of death on this storm and it’s been struggling for what, an hour? It’s survived worse. Let’s see where we’re sitting at the end of the day.

People have been trying to declare this dead since Monday.

[cp79]

Looks like Hispanola may have claimed another one. Isaias is dying a slow death this morning. Shear, of course, is aiding to it, but HIspanola did a job on the center.

It hasn’t claimed anything yet. The center literally just left the Hispaniola coast a few hours ago. Let’s see what happens as it gains latitude and gets away from the mountains.

I disagree. It looks really bad right now. Shear has a lot to do with it but so does the fact that Hispaniola ripped a lot of the storms around it. Like I said, this could be a tropical wave by this time tomorrow. The shear is only getting worse.

[eastcoastFL]

It’s probably worth noting that DR took a decent beating besides staying out of the NE side of the storm where most of the worst weather is supposed to be. Major flooding and wind in excess of 60 mph as it passed. Just my observation

[Jr0d]

Just starting to get some returns on Cuba's Camaguey radar:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Unfortunately the Hologuin radar is down and Gran Piedra is blocked by mountains.

[tolakram]

recon is in the storm

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like Hispanola may have claimed another one. Isaias is dying a slow death this morning. Shear, of course, is aiding to it, but HIspanola did a job on the center.

It hasn’t claimed anything yet. The center literally just left the Hispaniola coast a few hours ago. Let’s see what happens as it gains latitude and gets away from the mountains.

I disagree. It looks really bad right now. Shear has a lot to do with it but so does the fact that Hispaniola ripped a lot of the storms around it. Like I said, this could be a tropical wave by this time tomorrow. The shear is only getting worse.

There is absolutely no evidence of that. These posts really need to stop

[gatorcane]

I happen to think Isaias is organizing again or on the verge of. Note the deep high tower near the center. Also notice the outer band to the north starting to wrap more to the west and south around. Note too the shear isn’t that bad really. The high clouds over Cuba are only moving modestly north. With a vigorous center and boiling SSTs, expect strengthening:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Vdogg]

Looks like Hispanola may have claimed another one. Isaias is dying a slow death this morning. Shear, of course, is aiding to it, but HIspanola did a job on the center.

It hasn’t claimed anything yet. The center literally just left the Hispaniola coast a few hours ago. Let’s see what happens as it gains latitude and gets away from the mountains.

I disagree. It looks really bad right now. Shear has a lot to do with it but so does the fact that Hispaniola ripped a lot of the storms around it. Like I said, this could be a tropical wave by this time tomorrow. The shear is only getting worse.

As posted up thread, shear is actually decreasing. This is land interaction and the mountains choking off inflow. We have hundreds of miles of warm SSTs and moderately favorable conditions. The more north this gets, the better the chances for organization.

[aspen]

Center is now exposed west of the convection. Shear is taking its toll.

http://wxman57.com/images/Isaias13z.JPG

Those new firing hot towers should help keep the center on the border of convection. Looks like Isaias is going to struggle until it finds an area where shear is a little less, but for now it’ll presumably remain in the range of 60-70 kt.

[Highteeld]

Pressure looks like it increase another mb or 2 since the last pass.