ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[lhpfish]

I dont like that nudge west after Andros...

[northjaxpro]

landfall this run

https://i.imgur.com/rRuqQVQ.png

GFS is depicting a landfall in eitherr Martin County or St. Lucie County

[tarheelprogrammer]

Most models are keeping this weak, or relatively weak. This is why it landfalls in FL. Again, it will be rough but nothing along the lines of catastrophic for FL. No rain issues and most of FL stays on the west side of a weak TS. Models see a bad environment around this system.

[gatorcane]

Notice there is more ridging in the GFS yet again. When will the west shifts finally end is the question.

[northjaxpro]

Notice there is more ridging in the GFS yet again. When will the west shifts finally end is the question.

Yes., because of the thumb ridge.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Does anyone have the 6z UKMET that Stewart mentioned here? Also, it looks like they do (well at least Stewart does) consider the 6z suite to some degree.

The 06Z UKMET and and GFS have shifted westward,
closer to the Florida coast, which is similar to the westward shift
seen in the 00Z ECMWF model fields.

[sma10]

The 12z UK is even further west, turning North over the S FL peninsua

[gatorcane]

It’s like IRMA 2.0 with the models shifting west at the last minute only thankfully nowhere near the intensity.

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone have the 6z UKMET that Stewart mentioned here? Also, it looks like they do (well at least Stewart does) consider the 6z suite to some degree.

The 06Z UKMET and and GFS have shifted westward,
closer to the Florida coast, which is similar to the westward shift
seen in the 00Z ECMWF model fields.

I didn’t know the UKMET ran at 06z and 18z?

[Ian2401]

The 12z UK is even further west, turning North over the S FL peninsua

pics?

[CourierPR]

The 12z UK is even further west, turning North over the S FL peninsua

That's what I was thinking might happen but we will see. We may end up using the Eyeball Model.

[jlauderdal]

Well, the time has come to put my preps into action. Can't wait any longer. Isaias is coming and is gonna be a real close call here on the Treasure Coast. Shutters going up this afternoon. Been through this time and time again. As much of a problem this is, I'll take this over what could have been with Dorian last year.

nature is giving us good weather as usual before the storm rolls in, better today than tomorrow in the breeze

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z UK is even further west, turning North over the S FL peninsua

Intensity?

[TheStormExpert]

It’s like IRMA 2.0 with the models shifting west at the last minute only thankfully nowhere near the intensity.

Thank god, but a Cat.1 assuming Isaias maintains intensity can pack a punch.

[Jr0d]

Most models are keeping this weak, or relatively weak. This is why it landfalls in FL. Again, it will be rough but nothing along the lines of catastrophic for FL. No rain issues and most of FL stays on the west side of a weak TS. Models see a bad environment around this system.

I am not sold on that. More ridging usually means more favorable conditions. Also if the models got the ridging wrong, why be confident in their shear forecast?

Hopefully Florida will just get brushed with storm conditions along the coast...but after watching Hanna blow up quickly and knowing how warm the water is, I am not going to write off Isaias as a minor threat.

[gatorcane]

CMC shifts south and west but weak:

[SFLcane]

Oh these west trends!!

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z UK is even further west, turning North over the S FL peninsua

pics?

UKMET is the blue line




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sma10]

The 12z UK is even further west, turning North over the S FL peninsua

pics?

Sorry that I don't have pics, but based on the positioning, looks like the system crosses FL coast around Miami

[Ian2401]

12z euro is gonna be so huge