2020 WPAC Season

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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#181 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:56 am

GFS for several runs now has another.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#182 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:37 am

Might have another invest over the PHL Sea soon.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#183 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:02 am

気象庁によりますと、7月は台風が1つも発生しませんでした。

これは統計を取り始めた昭和26年以降で初めてのことです。

また、ことしは1月から7月までの発生数が2つで、年間の発生数も平成10年に次いで2番目に少ないペースとなっています。

気象庁は、インド洋で海面水温が平年より高く、積乱雲の活動が活発となった影響で北西太平洋では不活発となり、台風ができにくかったのではないかとしています。

しかし、今回のように7月までの台風の発生が4つと少なかった2016年には、その後、22の台風が次々に発生し、8月の台風10号では岩手県岩泉町のグループホームで入所者9人が亡くなるなど大きな被害をもたらしています。
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#184 Postby cainjamin » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:12 am

Nancy Smar wrote:気象庁によりますと、7月は台風が1つも発生しませんでした。

これは統計を取り始めた昭和26年以降で初めてのことです。

また、ことしは1月から7月までの発生数が2つで、年間の発生数も平成10年に次いで2番目に少ないペースとなっています。

気象庁は、インド洋で海面水温が平年より高く、積乱雲の活動が活発となった影響で北西太平洋では不活発となり、台風ができにくかったのではないかとしています。

しかし、今回のように7月までの台風の発生が4つと少なかった2016年には、その後、22の台風が次々に発生し、8月の台風10号では岩手県岩泉町のグループホームで入所者9人が亡くなるなど大きな被害をもたらしています。


If my Google Translate is accurate, Nancy is saying that this is the first time since records began in 1948 that no typhoons were recorded in July, and only having 2 storms by this point in the calendar year is also the second lowest total after 1998. Pretty quiet out there for sure.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#185 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:34 am

cainjamin wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:気象庁によりますと、7月は台風が1つも発生しませんでした。

これは統計を取り始めた昭和26年以降で初めてのことです。

また、ことしは1月から7月までの発生数が2つで、年間の発生数も平成10年に次いで2番目に少ないペースとなっています。

気象庁は、インド洋で海面水温が平年より高く、積乱雲の活動が活発となった影響で北西太平洋では不活発となり、台風ができにくかったのではないかとしています。

しかし、今回のように7月までの台風の発生が4つと少なかった2016年には、その後、22の台風が次々に発生し、8月の台風10号では岩手県岩泉町のグループホームで入所者9人が亡くなるなど大きな被害をもたらしています。


If my Google Translate is accurate, Nancy is saying that this is the first time since records began in 1948 that no typhoons were recorded in July, and only having 2 storms by this point in the calendar year is also the second lowest total after 1998. Pretty quiet out there for sure.



Of course I've been saying this since 2nd half of July that July could be the first July to have no named storms. We still have until 07/31/21Z for that to be sure who knows 91W might get named before 08/01/00Z. :D

From July 17
Hayabusa wrote:I still think July wouldn't be a nothingburger month, and instead produce at least a TS and if it happens it would tie with 1998 for only one storm reaching at least TS intensity, either way an unusually quiet July like 1998 or a new record breaking nothingburger July.
(And either of the two for such a thing to happen would make me doubt somethingx3 even more if this season turns out to be like or more quieter than {1998, 2010, 2017}).
Still 2 weeks more, enough time for atleast a single TS to pop up within July.


And that Japanese "statement" you quoted was taken from this Japanese news link:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202007 ... -items_001

台風 7月の発生 初めてゼロ「油断せず備えを」気象庁

2020年7月31日 23時20分

7月は台風の発生が1つもありませんでした。気象庁が統計を開始してから初めてのことですが、気象庁は「この状態が続くとはかぎらず、油断することなく備えを進めてほしい」と呼びかけています。

気象庁によりますと、7月は台風が1つも発生しませんでした。

これは統計を取り始めた昭和26年以降で初めてのことです。

また、ことしは1月から7月までの発生数が2つで、年間の発生数も平成10年に次いで2番目に少ないペースとなっています。

気象庁は、インド洋で海面水温が平年より高く、積乱雲の活動が活発となった影響で北西太平洋では不活発となり、台風ができにくかったのではないかとしています。

しかし、今回のように7月までの台風の発生が4つと少なかった2016年には、その後、22の台風が次々に発生し、8月の台風10号では岩手県岩泉町のグループホームで入所者9人が亡くなるなど大きな被害をもたらしています。

気象庁は「台風が少ない状態が続くとはかぎらない。発生する領域の海面水温は高く、台風が発達しやすい状況だ。油断することなく今のうちに避難場所を確認するなど備えを進めてほしい」と呼びかけています。


Translated

No typhoons in July for the first time: "Be on your guard and be prepared" Japan Meteorological Agency

July 31, 2020, 11:20 pm

There was not a single typhoon in July. This is the first time since the JMA started compiling statistics, but the JMA urges people not to let their guard down and to be prepared.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, there was not a single typhoon in July.

This is the first time since 1951, when statistics were first collected.

This year, two typhoons occurred between January and July, which is the second lowest annual rate of occurrence after 1998.

According to the JMA, higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and increased activity of cumulus clouds prevented the formation of typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean, making it difficult for them to form.

However, in 2016, when there were only four typhoons up to July, 22 typhoons hit the region one after another, and typhoon No. 10 in August killed nine residents at a group home in Iwaizumicho, Iwate Prefecture.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said, "Typhoons do not always remain few and far between. The sea surface temperature in the area where the typhoon is likely to occur is high, so typhoons are likely to develop. We urge you to be alert and prepare for the typhoon by checking evacuation sites and other measures before it occurs.



The original poster should've referenced it instead, as it is it looks like the poster's own words without the quote or reference link, and at the very least the original poster should've (machine) translate it for the international viewers as S2K is an English dominated site, it's not like we must go google and do it ourselves. Just my humble opinion.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#186 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:42 am

Hayabusa wrote:
cainjamin wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:気象庁によりますと、7月は台風が1つも発生しませんでした。

これは統計を取り始めた昭和26年以降で初めてのことです。

また、ことしは1月から7月までの発生数が2つで、年間の発生数も平成10年に次いで2番目に少ないペースとなっています。

気象庁は、インド洋で海面水温が平年より高く、積乱雲の活動が活発となった影響で北西太平洋では不活発となり、台風ができにくかったのではないかとしています。

しかし、今回のように7月までの台風の発生が4つと少なかった2016年には、その後、22の台風が次々に発生し、8月の台風10号では岩手県岩泉町のグループホームで入所者9人が亡くなるなど大きな被害をもたらしています。


If my Google Translate is accurate, Nancy is saying that this is the first time since records began in 1948 that no typhoons were recorded in July, and only having 2 storms by this point in the calendar year is also the second lowest total after 1998. Pretty quiet out there for sure.



Of course I've been saying this since 2nd half of July that July could be the first July to have no named storms. We still have until 07/31/21Z for that to be sure who knows 91W might get named before 08/01/00Z. :D

From July 17
Hayabusa wrote:I still think July wouldn't be a nothingburger month, and instead produce at least a TS and if it happens it would tie with 1998 for only one storm reaching at least TS intensity, either way an unusually quiet July like 1998 or a new record breaking nothingburger July.
(And either of the two for such a thing to happen would make me doubt somethingx3 even more if this season turns out to be like or more quieter than {1998, 2010, 2017}).
Still 2 weeks more, enough time for atleast a single TS to pop up within July.


And that Japanese "statement" you quoted was taken from this Japanese news link:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202007 ... -items_001

台風 7月の発生 初めてゼロ「油断せず備えを」気象庁

2020年7月31日 23時20分

7月は台風の発生が1つもありませんでした。気象庁が統計を開始してから初めてのことですが、気象庁は「この状態が続くとはかぎらず、油断することなく備えを進めてほしい」と呼びかけています。

気象庁によりますと、7月は台風が1つも発生しませんでした。

これは統計を取り始めた昭和26年以降で初めてのことです。

また、ことしは1月から7月までの発生数が2つで、年間の発生数も平成10年に次いで2番目に少ないペースとなっています。

気象庁は、インド洋で海面水温が平年より高く、積乱雲の活動が活発となった影響で北西太平洋では不活発となり、台風ができにくかったのではないかとしています。

しかし、今回のように7月までの台風の発生が4つと少なかった2016年には、その後、22の台風が次々に発生し、8月の台風10号では岩手県岩泉町のグループホームで入所者9人が亡くなるなど大きな被害をもたらしています。

気象庁は「台風が少ない状態が続くとはかぎらない。発生する領域の海面水温は高く、台風が発達しやすい状況だ。油断することなく今のうちに避難場所を確認するなど備えを進めてほしい」と呼びかけています。


Translated

No typhoons in July for the first time: "Be on your guard and be prepared" Japan Meteorological Agency

July 31, 2020, 11:20 pm

There was not a single typhoon in July. This is the first time since the JMA started compiling statistics, but the JMA urges people not to let their guard down and to be prepared.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, there was not a single typhoon in July.

This is the first time since 1951, when statistics were first collected.

This year, two typhoons occurred between January and July, which is the second lowest annual rate of occurrence after 1998.

According to the JMA, higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and increased activity of cumulus clouds prevented the formation of typhoons in the northwest Pacific Ocean, making it difficult for them to form.

However, in 2016, when there were only four typhoons up to July, 22 typhoons hit the region one after another, and typhoon No. 10 in August killed nine residents at a group home in Iwaizumicho, Iwate Prefecture.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said, "Typhoons do not always remain few and far between. The sea surface temperature in the area where the typhoon is likely to occur is high, so typhoons are likely to develop. We urge you to be alert and prepare for the typhoon by checking evacuation sites and other measures before it occurs.



The original poster should've referenced it instead, as it is it looks like the poster's own words without the quote or reference link, and at the very least the original poster should've (machine) translate it for the international viewers as S2K is an English dominated site, it's not like we must go google and do it ourselves. Just my humble opinion.

Thank you for pointing it out, I'll follow your advice.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#187 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:40 pm

Congratulations July 2020, it is now the only July where no named storms formed in the Western Pacific since reliable records began, what a big
Image
just like that ..........................

but at least we had 4 TDs formed?!
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#188 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:44 pm

Latest 03W dates, and how many TC's each year went on to have...

1) 2020, N/A, August 1
2) 1975, TS Mamie, July 27, 25 tropical cyclones
3) 1998, TS No Name, July 25, 27 tropical cyclones


How is 04W, the next storm looking? Let's see how far up the ranks this one has climbed...

1) 1998, TY Otto, August 2, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 2020, N/A, August 1
3) 1975, STY Nina, July 31, 25 tropical cyclones (a super typhoon!)
4) 2016, TS Lupit, July 23, 32 tropical cyclones
5) 1983, STY Wayne, July 22, 25 tropical cyclones

How is our 5th storm?

1) 2010, TS Dianmu, August 8, 20 tropical cyclones (the record low!)
2) 1998, TS Penny, August 6, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 1975, TD 05W, August 6, 25 tropical cyclones
4) 1983, STY Abby, August 5, 25 tropical cyclones
5) 2020, N/A, August 1
6) 2007, TY Usagi, July 28, 27 tropical cyclones
7) 2016, TS Mirinae, July 25, 32 tropical cyclones
8) 1969, STY Viola, July 21, 23 tropical cyclones

And now, 06W is now inside the top 10...

1) 1998, TY Rex, August 24, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 2010, TY Mindulle, August 22, 20 tropical cyclones (record low!)
3) 1983, TS Carmen, August 12, 25 tropical cyclones
4) 1975, TY Ora, August 10, 25 tropical cyclones
5) 2007, TD 06W, August 2, 27 tropical cyclones
6) 2020, N/A, August 1
7) 2016, TY Nida, July 29, 32 tropical cyclones
7) 1969, TS Winnie, July 29, 23 tropical cyclones
8) 1970, TD 06W, July 28, 27 tropical cyclones
9) 1995, TS No Name, July 26, 35 tropical cyclones
10) 1984, TY Dinah, July 24, 30 tropical cyclones
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#189 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:54 pm

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#190 Postby Ed_2001 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:15 pm

euro6208 wrote:Latest 03W dates, and how many TC's each year went on to have...

1) 2020, N/A, August 1
2) 1975, TS Mamie, July 27, 25 tropical cyclones
3) 1998, TS No Name, July 25, 27 tropical cyclones



Surprisingly, 92W has beaten out 91W in claiming the title for the latest 03W on record.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#191 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:47 pm

TD 03W

What a surprise. This came out from nowhere.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#192 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:52 pm

Very likely 91W will get upgraded to become 04W soon which will beat out or tie 2020 with 1998.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#193 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:51 am

The WPac has just doubled its system count this year.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#194 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:33 am

Two TC's developing on the first day of August. Maybe a sign of an even busier month and late season?
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#195 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:08 am

Looking very mean.

Image
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#196 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:52 am

Image

Incredible.

After being dormant for months, the WPAC awakens and produces the strongest landfall in the world, (if it maintains).

Surpassing even Amphan (NIO).

It's being underestimated though currently. :wink:

EDITED: Forgot about Vongfong earlier this year. :lol:
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#197 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:57 am

Chances are increasing for a destructive interference with the low-frequency base state the WPAC is in with the MJO crossing.

Image

Seeing a change. KW expected later this month.

Image
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#198 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:09 am

Another double tc?
Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#199 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:30 pm

18Z

Image

Image



Image

Large area of disturbed weather in the P.I sea.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#200 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:06 pm

The WPac passed 10 ACE on August 3rd. This is the second latest the WPac has crossed that number, only after 1998. That season took all the way until August 25th to achieve that milestone!
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