ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

Half naked swirl coming up.

Are you trolling?

No i think he’s right in this case. It’s temporary.

Definitely temporary. Seems to increase forward speed a little and the convection wasn’t able to keep up for the time being, not so much to do with shear.

[aspen]

Recon is looping inside the center. Looks like the pressure is down to 991-992 mbar, and the exact CoC is within the ball of convection.

[artist]

Can someone overlay the forecast points and the current center point?

Would be interesting to see.

White dash line to the right of vortex is the forecast line

[wzrgirl1]

I'm at 45 gallons treated and stored away. Fully prepared since the end of May. I usually do that every year but this year I went the extra mile. Gonna be a long season.

I only have about 15 gallons. I bought a portable air conditioner which is being delivered today.

Good idea on the portable air conditioner. Please stay safe Wendy.

Thanks Rickey. You too!

[eastcoastFL]

Half naked swirl coming up.

Are you trolling?

No i think he’s right in this case. It’s temporary.

I’m not seeing it. I’m looking at Bahamas radar it looks to be doing ok. IR isn’t pretty but recon is finding pressure drops

[lhpfish]

http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/

[chaser1]

I filled up my gas tank last night. Usual amount of activity at the station. I'll check on some gas stations in Hollywood when I go get some lunch.

I'm also now mentally preparing myself for the possibility of putting up some shutters tonight...

I have family scattered from Miami to Ft. Pierce. I'm telling those from Delray to Vero to pick up the yard & at least put up shutters for North and East face windows. Anything north of them will bring in a west wind but for the moment radial west side winds are not extending too far from center. That can be added early tomm. if necessary

[KWT]

Clearly can see on the visible imagery the western half of the LLC popping out of the convection again as it's been prone to doing at times

Radar isn't going to tell the story at the surface, your looking at the MLC feature on radar rather than the surface low.

I doubt it's going to do a total strip tease but clear to see there is some shear just causing the LLC to be on the western edge of the convective mass.

Also worth remembering that just because the LLC is somewhat lopsided compared to the LLC that it's not strengthening, the radar presentation clearly suggests improvement and the LLC will tuck in at some point you'd think.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it’s closing off. It’s strengthening.

[chaser1]

Just returned from the gas station with my Genny fuel, people were there filling up the gas cans.

I'm at 45 gallons treated and stored away. Fully prepared since the end of May. I usually do that every year but this year I went the extra mile. Gonna be a long season.

I only have about 15 gallons. I bought a portable air conditioner which is being delivered today.

Make sure you have a window to vent the warm air out, along with some kind of panel (cardboard, plexiglass, wood, etc) to cover the remaining part of the open window if you end up needing to use it.

[BoudreauxWPB]

Just returned from the gas station with my Genny fuel, people were there filling up the gas cans.

I work in the Stuart/Palm City area, but live in WPB. After the 11am, I figured I'd go fill up the truck now instead of waiting till 5:30 or so when I was back in PBC after panic mode has set in for people after the 5PM news. Good news is I still have 20 gallons in the garage from last season (if needed) for the generator. No lines in Palm City at the moment. One other guy filling up cans was all I saw.

be careful with that gas from last season unless you treated it, 3-6 months max if its in a sealed container....if you arent sure, get rid of it and start fresh, no need to damage your genny, gas is cheap these days

It's treated. Appreciate the looking out.

[Jr0d]

http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/

Looks like the eye is closing off...about 3/4 of the way there now.

[chaser1]

Just returned from the gas station with my Genny fuel, people were there filling up the gas cans.

If track and model trends don't wobble east during the next 6 hours, I don't see how NHC doesn't add T.S. Watch (and possibly Warning) for at least Broward county

Broward county has been under a TS watch since yesterday... Today it was upgraded to a TS warning...

Ahhh, thanks. Obviously makes sense.

[NDG]

Eyewall more than halfway closed now.

[Hd444]

Eyewall more than halfway closed now.

https://i.imgur.com/lnAPkPr.gif

Which should allow the northern turn. Models undergoing intensity. I see a peak as a CST 4

[Aric Dunn]

Eyewall more than halfway closed now.

https://i.imgur.com/lnAPkPr.gif

If convection wraps around to the west side.. probably will see a pretty good wnw Wobble

[jlauderdal]

Eyewall more than halfway closed now.

Im going with halfway, little less ...i wonder if the radar based on its location doesnt pickup the full extent of the eye

[TheAustinMan]

Clearly can see on the visible imagery the western half of the LLC popping out of the convection again as it's been prone to doing at times

Radar isn't going to tell the story at the surface, your looking at the MLC feature on radar rather than the surface low.

Radar probably won't, but recon would, and the latest recon pass suggests that the center is squarely in the middle of the central convection.

1.1 MB. Source: Google Earth, using data from TropicalAtlantic.com and SSEC RealEarth

[northjaxpro]

http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/

Looks like the eye is closing off...about 3/4 of the way there now.

Yes it does. It looks good at the moment.Also, Isaias is moving very steadiily west-northwest.

[NDG]

Satellite presentation has also improved since this morning, deep convection should start pushing the shear axis away from it again.