ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Euro shows a direct hit/landfall in Palm Beach County, FL. So, yeah ...

[StPeteMike]

I'm thinking with the 5PM update we are going to see the track adjusted to the west some more and Hurricane Watches are going to go up for Metro Broward...just a hunch.

I believe so as well. It would need a sharp turn to avoid so.

[cp79]

Euro shows a direct hit/landfall in Palm Beach County, FL. So, yeah ...

If there's any good news, it has it coming in pretty weak. May be downgraded to a mid-TS by the time it makes landfall.

[Lance]

Euro shows a direct hit/landfall in Palm Beach County, FL. So, yeah ...

If there's any good news, it has it coming in pretty weak. May be downgraded to a mid-TS by the time it makes landfall.

But it looks to spend 24 hours going up the spine of the state. Talk about some rain.. Big slow down it seems. (Unless I'm seeing it wrong, which is possible.)

[MGC]

Isaias continues to look more organized with time. The shear this morning along with some down sloping winds held the hurricane back this morning. I expect slow intensification as the hurricane approaches the Florida coast. Going to be a very close call for a landfall in FLA. Y'all in the impact zone need to get ready for a hurricane. Looks like a Hurricane David type track to me or very close along the FLA coast.....MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

Euro shows a direct hit/landfall in Palm Beach County, FL. So, yeah ...

If there's any good news, it has it coming in pretty weak. May be downgraded to a mid-TS by the time it makes landfall.

I don't necessarily trust the globals for intensity forecasts when they have collectively botched this and Hannah.

I agree that Hurricane watches are likely to be extended South a tad. I'd say down to Miami, based on the new UKMET/ECMWF. Hurricane conditions in Miami are still really unlikely (as things stand now), but can't be ruled out.

[Syx6sic]

I am here in Virginia Beach Virginia keeping my eyes on this storm now going to be a stressful next few days for sure here

[NDG]

The reason the shift to the west by the global models, ridge (Gatorcane's missing Bermuda ridge) stays stronger than earlier forecasted.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Euro shows a direct hit/landfall in Palm Beach County, FL. So, yeah ...

If there's any good news, it has it coming in pretty weak. May be downgraded to a mid-TS by the time it makes landfall.

But it looks to spend 24 hours going up the spine of the state. Talk about some rain.. Big slow down it seems. (Unless I'm seeing it wrong, which is possible.)

Nope, not wrong. Models have been trending slower the past day. If it's inland even as a weak system it should increase rain chances.

[chaser1]

I'm thinking with the 5PM update we are going to see the track adjusted to the west some more and Hurricane Watches are going to go up for Metro Broward...just a hunch.

Ditto, on a westward shift of track. Unless there's any other model data to suggest otherwise, I expect to see track on or literally grazing coastline anywhere from Boca up to Vero

[psyclone]

looks like a bit of a longitude chargeback after yesterday's big east shift. from just off the west coast...to just off the east coast...maybe down the middle is the eventual compromise.

[skillz305]

Vero Beach, FL here.... f**k.... Time to bring everything inside. Getting WAY too close for comfort. I expect NHC to shift the cone 'WEST' at 5PM due to the models being in agreement. If they didn't, it would be almost deceiving.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Unless the NHC thinks the hurricane will be weaker than currently forecast, I'd suspect those hurricane watches will be upgraded to warnings at 5 pm.

[supercane4867]

SFL is running out of luck. Fortunately this storm probably won’t be devastatingly intense if it were to make landfall in Florida.

[caneseddy]

Euro shows a direct hit/landfall in Palm Beach County, FL. So, yeah ...

If there's any good news, it has it coming in pretty weak. May be downgraded to a mid-TS by the time it makes landfall.

I don't necessarily trust the globals for intensity forecasts when they have collectively botched this and Hannah.

I agree that Hurricane watches are likely to be extended South a tad. I'd say down to Miami, based on the new UKMET/ECMWF. Hurricane conditions in Miami are still really unlikely (as things stand now), but can't be ruled out.

I'd say they'll extend the Hurricane Watch down to Hallandale Beach (which is pretty much the Miami-Dade/Broward line) and keep the Tropical Storm warnings for Miami-Dade County.

[aspen]

Isn’t there another recon flight scheduled for later this afternoon?

[eastcoastFL]

Are those showers off of Miami related to Isaias?

[ThetaE]

Some bursts of lightning in the inner core in the last 30 min. Haven't seen that yet today.

[Ubuntwo]

Are those showers off of Miami related to Isaias?

Looks like an outflow boundary from Isaias

[SFLcane]

Prepare now SFL!!! @ raleighwx

I will post the 12z ECMWF loop for #Isaias shortly. But I would say if you live in S Florida, prepare for a landfalling hurricane tomorrow evening/night.

https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/12 ... 31650?s=21