ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[otowntiger]

Yup. Landfall near Boca.

Looks to be weakening some on the approach.

That’s really not unexpected or too unusual, I don’t think.

[cp79]

Bad news for SoFL. Good news for the Carolinas. It looks like this could get far enough inland in Fla. that it won't get back out to sea. Could ride up the spine of the state.

[caneseddy]

West shifts keep coming folks. I don't think they are done yet.

[CronkPSU]

where does it go after landfall...straight north thru Central Florida or further towards the west coast?

[Aric Dunn]

NHC track should be close to back onshore FL at 5. Maybe a hurricane warning for us as well.

With the GFS nearly onshore.. all the ensembles onshre the UKmet onshore. the Euro onshore. I say the NHC shows landfall around palm beach

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 72 Hours...

[Hurricane Mike]

Florida looks more and more likely.

[northjaxpro]

https://i.imgur.com/U6XbeVv.jpg
12z Euro... 72 Hours...

Right over me here in Jax..Ouch! Glad I did my preps a couple of days ago. I knew the EURO had this right the whole time....WOW..

[cp79]

where does it go after landfall...straight north thru Central Florida or further towards the west coast?

This is a good question because if it were to go just a little more west before its really strong turn, it could cross back out around Naples and ride the west coast moving NNW. The way Florida is set up, every mile is crucial. It doesn't take much for this to go from an east coast to a west coast problem, although right now I do think it's likely more of an east coast and central Fla. issue.

[Lance]

https://i.imgur.com/U6XbeVv.jpg
12z Euro... 72 Hours...

Right over me here in Jax..Ouch! Glad I did my preps a couple of days ago. I knew the EURO had this right the whole time....WOW..

24 hours from WPB to Jax? Lots of rain over CFL, lots of flooding. Why the slow down??

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/U6XbeVv.jpg
12z Euro... 72 Hours...

Right over me here in Jax..Ouch! Glad I did my preps a couple of days ago. I knew the EURO had this right the whole time....WOW..

24 hours from WPB to Jax? Lots of rain over CFL, lots of flooding. Why the slow down??

No, more than that.
24 hrs from Boca to Orlando and another 12 hrs to Jax, so a total of 36 hrs.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... Through 96 Hours... Landfall Palm Beach County/Delray Area

[caneseddy]

Aric you did call these west shifts!

Dam good stuff man.

Yeah Kudos to long time Storm2k members Aric and NorthJax for calling out stouter ridging a few days ago. I was ready to write this off as another coast hugger yesterday.

And Weather Emperor who was telling us the NAO was going to go positive this weekend which forces ridging to establish itself

[Weatherboy1]

NOAA mission is in the air and starting its sampling program. I'm not sure how long it'll take for those observations to get fed into the models, but glad they're out there finally to provide some additional assistance

[abk_0710]

Even with the west shifts, is there any chance of this storm going either further west and landing in the Gulf?

[WeatherEmperor]

In this case, notice how it was negative a few days ago and climbed all the way to slightly positive territory going into the 1st day of August? Northjaxpro was right about how the positive NAO likely played a factor in Isaias coming more West.

[TheStormExpert]

Whatever this means.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1289248515890192385

[pgoss11]

Whatever this means.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1289248515890192385

Derek,
So the Euro, CMC/Uk initialized the storm incorrectly, meaning they initialized the storm too weakly? That is causing the models to steer the storm more westward?

[WeatherEmperor]

Check this Tweet about why the Euro may have shifted west to Florida. Interesting.....

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289270969991913477

[NDG]

Check this Tweet about why the Euro may have shifted west to Florida. Interesting.....

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289270969991913477

He missed the next image.