ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[NDG]

The only reason why the 18z TVCN didn't move much to the west is because of the right biased HWRF and HMON models.

[WeatherEmperor]

The only reason why the 18z TVCN didn't moved much to the west is because of the right biased HWRF and HMON models.

I was just about to post the same thing. The 18z TVCN is literally on top of the current NHC track so I am not sure if they shift the track west or not




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[AutoPenalti]

Whatever this means.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1289248515890192385

Well to be fair, models have been difficult to rely on even 24 hours out.

[pcolaman]

I wonder if they’ll actually show Isaias making landfall on Florida’s East Coast next advisory or wait until 11pm to see if trends continue or stay?

Got a feeling they will wait till notification is sent to local governments first not to catch them off guard. The watches and warnings will be issued for all of south Florida before it's over . IMHO

[chris_fit]

12z EPS more than half bring the storm into S FL. There are a few members still hugging the coast, and a few members even on the SW FL Coast.

[Steve]

Even with the west shifts, is there any chance of this storm going either further west and landing in the Gulf?

I wouldn't be worrying even a little if I was in Louisiana. And I am.

[Ian2401]

12z EPS more than half bring the storm into S FL. There are a few members still hugging the coast, and a few members even on the SW FL Coast.

pic?

[Weatherboy1]

I wonder if they’ll actually show Isaias making landfall on Florida’s East Coast next advisory or wait until 11pm to see if trends continue or stay?

I strongly believe they will move the track to showing landfall given even the off-the-Coast GFS ya shifted 60/70 miles east during the day, and given what the other major global are showing. Also believe TS Warning gets upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for a portion of East Cost FL. Maybe Boca to Melbourne-ish

[Evil Jeremy]

The 18z TVCN is literally on top of the current NHC track so I am not sure if they shift the track west or not

GFS and UKMET both made slight shifts SW. ECMWF still showing landfall in SFL. I don't see how the NHC doesn't move the cone just a smidge west. Even if it's only the slightest of shifts.

[StormingB81]

I wonder if they’ll actually show Isaias making landfall on Florida’s East Coast next advisory or wait until 11pm to see if trends continue or stay?

I strongly believe they will move the track to showing landfall given even the off-the-Coast GFS ya shifted 60/70 miles east during the day, and given what the other major global are showing. Also believe TS Warning gets upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for a portion of East Cost FL. Maybe Boca to Melbourne-ish

I think they would go a little bit more north then Melbourne seeing how some models had it scraping the coast a little further up.

[JPmia]

I wonder if they’ll actually show Isaias making landfall on Florida’s East Coast next advisory or wait until 11pm to see if trends continue or stay?

I strongly believe they will move the track to showing landfall given even the off-the-Coast GFS ya shifted 60/70 miles east during the day, and given what the other major global are showing. Also believe TS Warning gets upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for a portion of East Cost FL. Maybe Boca to Melbourne-ish

The 12z Euro actually landfalls the storm at Deerfield / Boca area so those H Warnings would most likely need to be most or all of Broward County.

[Aric Dunn]

18z models will have data from the G-IV flight. not that it will change too much concerning florida. unless its shows a really weak ridge which would turn it nnw now..

[ronjon]

I wonder if they’ll actually show Isaias making landfall on Florida’s East Coast next advisory or wait until 11pm to see if trends continue or stay?

I strongly believe they will move the track to showing landfall given even the off-the-Coast GFS ya shifted 60/70 miles east during the day, and given what the other major global are showing. Also believe TS Warning gets upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for a portion of East Cost FL. Maybe Boca to Melbourne-ish

The 12z Euro actually landfalls the storm at Deerfield / Boca area so those H Warnings would most likely need to be most or all of Broward County.

NHC gives strong weight to the Euro - I'd expect a landfall track at the 5 pm given the closeness of the storm and current model trends. They also have access to other data we don't like the FSU superensemble plus storm-bias corrected runs to make better decision making.

[WeatherEmperor]

In regards to the TVCN, I stand corrected. It actually did move west by just a little tiny bit. Also, the TVCX shifted further west, almost making landfall on thw Florida east coast. It is maybe 10-15 miles offshore or something




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[AJC3]

Gang, I just finished deleting another batch of OT chit chat. Try not to get derailed, and keep the discussions focused on the topic. Thanks.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Navgem shows potential landfall in Palm Beach county




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[LCfromFL]

12z EPS more than half bring the storm into S FL. There are a few members still hugging the coast, and a few members even on the SW FL Coast.

pic?

well, I cannot figure out how to paste the image, so here's the link to the Weathernerds site:

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=024&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=710&initrange=33.649635036500:266.148571428532:15.766423357700:297.866666666636&initcx1=98&initcy1=229&initcx2=450&initcy2=464&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=93&initsoundy=224&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=240&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=Off&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS

[fox13weather]

The only reason why the 18z TVCN didn't move much to the west is because of the right biased HWRF and HMON models.

I am not sure "right biased" is the way to put it. Being biased implies the model will be wrong ..we do not know that. If the storm stays near or just off the east coast, then you could say the ECMWF was left biased...

[AJC3]

12z EPS more than half bring the storm into S FL. There are a few members still hugging the coast, and a few members even on the SW FL Coast.

pic?

well, I cannot figure out how to paste the image, so here's the link to the Weathernerds site:

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=024&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=710&initrange=33.649635036500:266.148571428532:15.766423357700:297.866666666636&initcx1=98&initcy1=229&initcx2=450&initcy2=464&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=93&initsoundy=224&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=240&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=Off&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

Since we frown upon hotlinking, I went ahead and uploaded the 48-hour forecast to imgur...