ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SFLcane]

Euro ensembles...

[Canelaw99]

Euro ensembles...

https://i.imgur.com/LuNuHCZ.png

Well, that’s just a big mess of spaghetti over Florida....definitely not liking that trend today

[Aric Dunn]

18z NAM showing a "Fuller" Ridge north of the bahamas.. and the trough over the central US is more flat.

[caneseddy]

18z NAM showing a "Fuller" Ridge north of the bahamas.. and the trough over the central US is more flat.

NAM landfall in southern Broward County or northern Miami-Dade County (hard to see). Makes a small left turn (probably the HP) over or near Bimini and landfalls

[Aric Dunn]

18z NAM showing a "Fuller" Ridge north of the bahamas.. and the trough over the central US is more flat.

NAM landfall in Broward County. Makes a small left turn (probably the HP) and landfalls

RECON showing 592 heights VS the models showing 591mb ridging north of the bahamas.

[chaser1]

Euro ensembles...

https://i.imgur.com/LuNuHCZ.png

I really really hate small core hurricanes. Anyones guess who's gonna win the Isaias lottery but it's gonna be a pretty abrupt slap in the face. The thought of this storm moving far more south and inland just means that many more getting some weather on the dirty east side

[chaser1]

18z NAM showing a "Fuller" Ridge north of the bahamas.. and the trough over the central US is more flat.

And, of course

[Canelaw99]

RECON showing 592 heights VS the models showing 591mb ridging north of the bahamas.

Doesn’t seem like much of a difference ???

[Aric Dunn]

RECON showing 592 heights VS the models showing 591mb ridging north of the bahamas.

Doesn’t seem like much of a difference ???

actually a couple dropsondes show 593mb as well.

and yes 1 mb can be a game-changer in certain scenarios.

[NDG]

The only reason why the 18z TVCN didn't move much to the west is because of the right biased HWRF and HMON models.

I am not sure "right biased" is the way to put it. Being biased implies the model will be wrong ..we do not know that. If the storm stays near or just off the east coast, then you could say the ECMWF was left biased...

Here is just one example, It has been right biased with Isaias so far.

[northjaxpro]

RECON showing 592 heights VS the models showing 591mb ridging north of the bahamas.

Doesn’t seem like much of a difference ???

actually a couple dropsondes show 593mb as well.

and yes 1 mb can be a game-changer in certain scenarios.

Very stout ridge no matter how you slice it.

[ronjon]

RECON showing 592 heights VS the models showing 591mb ridging north of the bahamas.

Doesn’t seem like much of a difference ???

actually a couple dropsondes show 593mb as well.

and yes 1 mb can be a game-changer in certain scenarios.

And I think the important point here is observed data is slightly stronger ridging than what's in the models - not the other way around which means perhaps slightly more westward shifts in coming runs.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Doesn’t seem like much of a difference ???

actually a couple dropsondes show 593mb as well.

and yes 1 mb can be a game-changer in certain scenarios.

Very stout ridge no matter how you slice it.

put is this way..

the models aren't overestimating it.

[Aric Dunn]

Doesn’t seem like much of a difference ???

actually a couple dropsondes show 593mb as well.

and yes 1 mb can be a game-changer in certain scenarios.

Very stout ridge no matter how you slice it.

looks like a nice bubble of 593 heights north of the bahamas.

[Canelaw99]

And I think the important point here is observed data is slightly stronger ridging than what's in the models - not the other way around which means perhaps slightly more westward shifts in coming runs.

As a S Dade resident, I was really hoping Aric would tell me, nope, not much difference. I have been watching these models shifting west and everything Aric and northjax have said makes sense with what we see.

[northjaxpro]

actually a couple dropsondes show 593mb as well.

and yes 1 mb can be a game-changer in certain scenarios.

Very stout ridge no matter how you slice it.

looks like a nice bubble of 593 heights north of the bahamas.

B

I think Isaias has pumped the ridge even the more today. Isaias has created its own unique environment.

[Aric Dunn]

Very stout ridge no matter how you slice it.

looks like a nice bubble of 593 heights north of the bahamas.

B

I think Isaias has pumped the ridge even the more today. Isaias has created its own unique environment.

Not sure why I hand wrote this.. but here it is.. so far

[chaser1]

actually a couple dropsondes show 593mb as well.

and yes 1 mb can be a game-changer in certain scenarios.

Very stout ridge no matter how you slice it.

Underscored 500mb heights? Just flipping wonderful. That's a big deal under normal circumstances. REASON #19 - Why Small Hurricanes Suck : Small storms are far more susceptible to being impacted by small to large scale pattern or variable height changes.

looks like a nice bubble of 593 heights north of the bahamas.

[JPmia]

If they're finding a stronger ridge then does that change the whole stronger storm goes further north/east vs. weaker storm goes further west argument?

[Aric Dunn]

If they're finding a stronger ridge then does that change the whole stronger storm goes further north/east vs. weaker storm goes further west argument?

Yeah so a stronger storm would be held on a more NW track.. depending on the orientation of the ridge..

right now it appears the thumb ridge is pretty horizontal.