ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Look at this windfield!

https://i.imgur.com/Tw1p5Ws.gif

If Isaias maintains it's current trajectory, he will clip the South end of Andros Island.

[otowntiger]

Despite the rumblings on this site and some of the models shifting west, I still think this thing will miss Florida to the east altogether. It may get within 50-100 miles at some point but I think it will stay further out as we were thinking yesterday/last night. Obviously I'm no pro and have no credentials other than lots of experience watching and paying close attention for a lot of years. And there are still a lot of models that keep this out to sea.

What makes you think this?

As I said a lot of ensemble models are still keeping it out to sea, Climatology always favors a recurve and I've seen this play out so many times in my 31 years here in Florida. Plus the fact that its gaining decent lattitude now, doesn't hurt my theory

[Vdogg]

Looks like Isaias is gaining a bit more latitude now.

I was just about to post that it's definitely heading NW, as was expected. I think this will be a coastal scraper, with possible landfall in the Carolinas.

[DestinHurricane]

Look at this windfield!

https://i.imgur.com/Tw1p5Ws.gif

If Isaias maintains it's current trajectory, he will clip the South end of Andros Island.

He shouldn't maintain current trajectory. Should turn NW to NNW

[AutoPenalti]

Despite the rumblings on this site and some of the models shifting west, I still think this thing will miss Florida to the east altogether. It may get within 50-100 miles at some point but I think it will stay further out as we were thinking yesterday/last night. Obviously I'm no pro and have no credentials other than lots of experience watching and paying close attention for a lot of years. And there are still a lot of models that keep this out to sea.

What makes you think this?

As I said a lot of ensemble models are still keeping it out to sea, Climatology always favors a recurve and I've seen this play out so many times in my 31 years here in Florida.

Not sure where you’re seeing this... all the ensembles have landfall or barely off shore.

[FireRat]

Just looking at the situation, I'll say for FL this storm will be very close to Cleo 1964. Cat 1 to 2 winds as the center of Isaias passes just 10 miles or so offshore. I'll say this storm does make landfall or at least has part of the eyewall come ashore between West Palm Beach and Hobe Sound as it parallels the state en route to the Carolinas.

Carolinas should pay attention, I'd say Isaias could make a run at Cat 2 to Cat 3 over the gulf stream.

[Aric Dunn]

Ridigng does appear stronger north of the Bahamas per the G-IV flight. the GFS has 591 heights north of the bahamas..

the recon flight is showing 592.

[jlauderdal]

Its time to get real about this system. I have asked Eric Blake if his shutters are up or going up?. Will advise when I know more.

[NDG]

NOAA #8 sampling the upper air, particular the ridge, as we speak.

Glad to hear that, finally!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ridigng does appear stronger north of the Bahamas per the G-IV flight. the GFS has 591 heights north of the bahamas..

the recon flight is showing 592.

it’s definitely not weaker that’s for sure.

[SFLcane]

Its time to get real about this system. I have asked Eric Blake if his shutters are up or going up?. Will advise when I know more.

We'll we are possibly 30 min away from a hurricane warning.

[BobHarlem]

For those buried in Isaias posts, TD#10 just formed off Africa -- Topic link to TD10

[Airboy]

Two recon in the air and on it's way, Miss Piggy + AF plane.

[DestinHurricane]

I really hope NHC goes with warnings at 5. Publix here in east boca is business as usual (w/covid) and hardly seeing any shutters up. People are going to be caught off guard.

[ava_ati]

Just saw on the weather channel there is forced evacuations in North Carolina... that seems really premature

[SFLcane]

I really hope NHC goes with warnings at 5. Publix here in east boca is business as usual (w/covid) and hardly seeing any shutters up. People are going to be caught off guard.

That is likely a done deal Stacy S. is in the controls.

[caneseddy]

To add to Aric's post about the ridge, the NAM shows it as well as it shows Isaias making a left turn (small) over or near Bimini and landfalling around Miami-Dade/Broward

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[toad strangler]

Despite the rumblings on this site and some of the models shifting west, I still think this thing will miss Florida to the east altogether. It may get within 50-100 miles at some point but I think it will stay further out as we were thinking yesterday/last night. Obviously I'm no pro and have no credentials other than lots of experience watching and paying close attention for a lot of years. And there are still a lot of models that keep this out to sea.

You are one of the most pessimistic Fl tropical posters I've seen on these boards over the years. I applaud you for sticking to your guns

[DestinHurricane]

Despite the rumblings on this site and some of the models shifting west, I still think this thing will miss Florida to the east altogether. It may get within 50-100 miles at some point but I think it will stay further out as we were thinking yesterday/last night. Obviously I'm no pro and have no credentials other than lots of experience watching and paying close attention for a lot of years. And there are still a lot of models that keep this out to sea.

You are one of the most pessimistic Fl tropical posters I've seen on these boards over the years. I applaud you for sticking to your guns

I think you mean optimistic??

[eastcoastFL]

For those buried in Isaias posts, TD#10 just formed off Africa -- Topic link to TD10

Weird. Not on nhc yet