ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

5pm position: 22.6N, 75.7W

That is .3 north and .7 west of the 5am forecast.

That is .1 south and .6 west of the 5pm forecast yesterday.

Isaias keeps pacing west of forecast.

[KWT]

5pm position: 22.6N, 75.7W

That is .3 north and .7 west of the 5am forecast.

That is .1 south and .6 west of the 5pm forecast yesterday.

Isaias keeps pacing west of forecast.

Also makes sense with a little stronger upper high which in turn will shove this at a quicker pace WNW/NW.

[cheezyWXguy]

Cloud filled eye may be starting to show up on visible imagery

[Do_For_Love]

Hope everyone on the Bahamas/East coast is bein safe and doin what they need to do, sounds like we all might get a little taste of Isaias over the next few days. Hopefully he stays calm as a Cat 1 or even weakens to a TS, nobody piss him off lol...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Just saw on the weather channel there is forced evacuations in North Carolina... that seems really premature

It's only Ocracoke Island. Only way on or off of the Island is by Ferry so it takes a little longer to get everyone out. Can't wait until last minute.

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Plus they are still recovering from Dorian last year.

Yeah Dorian wrecked Ocracoke. It just opened back up for tourists 2-3 months ago. Some of the worst storm surge flooding they have ever seen there.

[FLpanhandle91]

Was it John Hope that said a good indicator of steering pattern is to see what direction the high cirrus clouds are traveling in front of the storm? If so, they are all pushing WNW well ahead of the storm. Nothing to pull it north yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Cloud filled eye may be starting to show up on visible imagery

It does appear that way.. especially when you look at radar..

[Sal Collaziano]

That is one tiny little hurricane

Hurricane Ittybitty will tear your face off. :p

[NDG]

What I have been saying for a while now, it never fails this time of the year:

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The 12Z
global models have once again made a westward shift due to the ridge
to the north of Isaias not weakening as quickly as expected. This is
partly due to the ridge being stronger than expected and a shortwave
trough over the central United States moving a little slower into
the southeastern U.S. than previously indicated.

[pgoss11]

That is one tiny little hurricane

Hurricane Ittybitty will tear your face off. :p

https://scontent.fmia1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/116566178_10158628617107154_2973831009720571603_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=LySfK_eWpjsAX9-kduB&_nc_oc=AQnv3tkb2i8hUHH3QnSOZOsUJo58wiUW75oXr6BURuaabefN964V2dmb-lb3ga3uzYmfDpNJsdzSfHUstIhgB1mT&_nc_ht=scontent.fmia1-1.fna&oh=44a372d1ba382c3a1ed72513865681e2&oe=5F4AF99B

I see the NHC has lowered the strength of the hurricane off of Jacksonville on north to tropical storm now. Is it shear they’re expecting or the land interaction scraping Florida?

[Aric Dunn]

What I have been saying for a while now, it never fails this time of the year:

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The 12Z
global models have once again made a westward shift due to the ridge
to the north of Isaias not weakening as quickly as expected. This is
partly due to the ridge being stronger than expected and a shortwave
trough over the central United States moving a little slower into
the southeastern U.S. than previously indicated.

They should have flown the G-IV flight yesterday..

[otowntiger]

Despite the rumblings on this site and some of the models shifting west, I still think this thing will miss Florida to the east altogether. It may get within 50-100 miles at some point but I think it will stay further out as we were thinking yesterday/last night. Obviously I'm no pro and have no credentials other than lots of experience watching and paying close attention for a lot of years. And there are still a lot of models that keep this out to sea.

You are one of the most pessimistic Fl tropical posters I've seen on these boards over the years. I applaud you for sticking to your guns

Why wouldn't that be "optimistic"??? True I guess in this upside down world of Tropic tracking and interests that I typically look for and see reasons why storms are not always (and in fact mostly are not), the catastrophes as hyped.

[Aric Dunn]

well now..

luckily the NOAA plane is almost there..

[sponger]

I could only smile after watching the 2pm Euro, on my way to Walmart listening to the radio tell me how far off shore this storm was going to pass. I believe the term was way offshore!

[NDG]

What I have been saying for a while now, it never fails this time of the year:

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The 12Z
global models have once again made a westward shift due to the ridge
to the north of Isaias not weakening as quickly as expected. This is
partly due to the ridge being stronger than expected and a shortwave
trough over the central United States moving a little slower into
the southeastern U.S. than previously indicated.

They should have flown the G-IV flight yesterday..

Yep, I was questioning that yesterday, especially when there is a lot less commercial flights flying right now.

[SFLcane]

I bet the Fort Lauderdale watch gets upgraded at 11pm to a warning.

[drewschmaltz]

Us central floridians be like "no big deal, it won't be here in 2 weeks". Dorian messed us all up. Sheltering in place for a whole week. Gosh, now that I think about it that kind of sounds like.... pumping the breaks on that thought. Well the generator sales are still flat and my 75 year old mom hasn't called to warn me yet. I think we are all just a little over saturated. But this one is just as real as any others so its time to prepare just in case.

[DestinHurricane]

Going to be high tide tomorrow evening in SE FL..... Almost exact same time NHC has it coming closest.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaat ... 6&legacy=1

[PandaCitrus]

Hopefully, the NHC is right about the shear. It would be a nightmare scenario for everyone to go to bed tonight expecting a Cat 1 and have this blow up to be a major hurricane tomorrow. Just with evacuations and everything right now with the coronavirus. Logistically, it is a nightmare.

[caneseddy]

I bet the Fort Lauderdale watch gets upgraded at 11pm to a warning.

If the models start shifting more SW as the NAM and ICON have done so far (both show landfall in either Miami or Broward) then they probably would have to issue a Hurricane Watch for Miami-Dade at 11:00 pm, I would think

[Disclaimer]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS./Disclaimer]