ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3221 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:23 pm

chaser1 wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:I know we’re notorious for being “experts” on this site, but it confuses me why people think we know exactly where storms will go, especially in such difficult situations like this. The best weather models in the world don’t know right now, and the NHC itself will admit it can’t 100% predict a storm will go.


It is the root of human nature to look within as well as to cast our eyes upon the environment around us, and seek out answers that mystify us and challenge our knowledge about all that which we see (and that which we can't). We hypothesize, use observations to analyze and disseminate, and challenge ourselves as well as each other to achieve that pinnacle of knowledge. Throughout the process, predictions are made and conclusions are reached regardless of risk of failing or ultimate failure itself. It's about the challenge to ourselves, the insatiable thirst for knowledge, and peer validation of success. So ummm, should we just throw your bet down for somewhere lame.... like landfall in Key West? :cheesy:

The NHC and the models can't figure that out currently, so¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3222 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:25 pm

Is that data about the ridge in 18Z models?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3223 Postby Jr0d » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:25 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Was it John Hope that said a good indicator of steering pattern is to see what direction the high cirrus clouds are traveling in front of the storm? If so, they are all pushing WNW well ahead of the storm. Nothing to pull it north yet.


I call that the John Hope rule...noticed that yesterday they were pushing towards where the storm is now.

Really wish we could have him on TWC right now informing us about Isaias.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3224 Postby sponger » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:26 pm

Watching the high clouds stream in front of him, he looks like he is heading to the Gulf! That ridge will erode but I doubt anytime soon. I am calling a Juno landfall. Exit Daytona, 2nd in Wilmington.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3225 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:26 pm

SFLcane wrote:I bet the Fort Lauderdale watch gets upgraded at 11pm to a warning.
So that means it will be dark, late at night, cant wake up the niehgbors but know I need to put up shutters so therefore i don't sleep a wink and then at sunrise i put up shutters as winds increase to tropical storm force...non of that sounds like a recipe for success
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3226 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:I bet the Fort Lauderdale watch gets upgraded at 11pm to a warning.


Sypnotic data being collected right now by the NOAA plane north of Isaias should make it into tonight's 0z model runs so it will be interesting if the hurricane models that remain to the right of the track will shift to the left or not. If so, yes, at least Broward will go into a warning.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3227 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:27 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Is that data about the ridge in 18Z models?


At least partially.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3228 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:27 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3229 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:30 pm

This is an interesting take on track


John Morales
@JohnMoralesNBC6


I get a straight line to Boca Raton.

But the Bermuda high is weakening, not getting stronger. What are the chances it can keep going in this beeline to Boca?

And, think of how very remote the possibility is of a west turn given the weather map today and this weekend.


https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/sta ... 5086228483
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3230 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:31 pm

An an intensifying hurricane heading into some of the warmest waters in the basin. That's, uh let me check my notes here, bad
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3231 Postby Bimms » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:31 pm

I'm thinking by tonight Metro Broward will be upgraded from a watch to a Hurricane Warning...we will see what happens.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3232 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:32 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:I bet the Fort Lauderdale watch gets upgraded at 11pm to a warning.
So that means it will be dark, late at night, cant wake up the niehgbors but know I need to put up shutters so therefore i don't sleep a wink and then at sunrise i put up shutters as winds increase to tropical storm force...non of that sounds like a recipe for success


But think of the bright side.............
aw crap, there is no bright side
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3233 Postby ozonepete » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:33 pm

I'm amazed that no one, especially Stacy who is the best of the best, has mentioned all of the dry air just to the west and northwest of Isaias. That is a BIG impediment to strengthening if not a cause for weakening pretty soon,

Image
Last edited by ozonepete on Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3234 Postby ronyan » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:34 pm

ozonepete wrote:I'm amazed that no one, especially Stacy who is the best of the best, has mentioned all of the dry air just toe west and northwest of Isaias. That is a BIG impediment to strengthening if not a cause for weakening pretty soon,

https://i.imgur.com/lrQIzNx.jpg


Norcross was talking about it earlier: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAGI6kO44XQ
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3235 Postby caneseddy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:34 pm

Interesting mention on Channel 10. They zoomed in on the cone and now downtown Miami is on the left side of the cone. Nothing big, but interesting because at 11:00 am the left side was just offshore Miami-Dade
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3236 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:35 pm

First pass by recon looks like it'll be southwest to northeast.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3237 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:36 pm

chaser1 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:I bet the Fort Lauderdale watch gets upgraded at 11pm to a warning.
So that means it will be dark, late at night, cant wake up the niehgbors but know I need to put up shutters so therefore i don't sleep a wink and then at sunrise i put up shutters as winds increase to tropical storm force...non of that sounds like a recipe for success


But think of the bright side.............
aw crap, there is no bright side


Im not putting up shutters, at least today...NHC is too good on track, this thing is going N of Broward County. Intenisty is another story but so far its behaving today.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3238 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:37 pm

jlauderdal wrote:This is an interesting take on track


John Morales
@JohnMoralesNBC6


I get a straight line to Boca Raton.

But the Bermuda high is weakening, not getting stronger. What are the chances it can keep going in this beeline to Boca?

And, think of how very remote the possibility is of a west turn given the weather map today and this weekend.


https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/sta ... 5086228483


So is he saying it stays off coast?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3239 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:39 pm

What shear? Is 2020.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3240 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:39 pm

ozonepete wrote:I'm amazed that no one, especially Stacy who is the best of the best, has mentioned all of the dry air just to the west and northwest of Isaias. That is a BIG impediment to strengthening if not a cause for weakening pretty soon,

https://i.imgur.com/lrQIzNx.jpg



I agree with you. Between the excessive dry air and shear, I don’t see this being anything but a tropical storm by the time it gets to Florida. The NHC is probably just being careful. It’s better to prepare for a minimal hurricane just in case
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